Note: in changing the details for this writeup from AP Rank to CFP ranks, I note that Tulane is higher in the CFP than AP and that all of ASU, Iowa St, BYU and Colorado are seen less favorably by the committee than by AP Voters. Seeing Kansas St ranked helps though. It'll mean either Iowa St or ASU will likely be a top 15 team when we play them if it works out that way 

Going into last Saturday, a BYU loss to ASU would be expected to pretty much knock BYU out of the playoff.  It would put us outside the CCG picture (behind Colorado, ASU & Iowa St, so we'd need two big upsets) and there's no way a 2-loss non-champ BYU would jump a slew of 2 loss SEC teams.  There was even a worry that an undefeated Army could jump the Big 12 champion.

And then (almost) everything went right for the Cougars.  Army lost, Alabama lost, Ole Miss lost, Texas A&M lost, Colorado lost.  Even Boise St and Penn St struggled and Indiana wasn't able to keep it respectable against Ohio St. 

But despite all that, the most important part went wrong and BYU lost.  But those upsets (especially Colorado losing) mean the dream isn't dead yet, even if we need some help. Per ESPN, if BYU beats Houston and wins the CCG, there's a 85% BYU makes the playoffs (and I'd guess that's too low) and a 34% chance for a first round bye.  But even if we beat Houston and don't make the CCG, ESPN still predicts BYU to have a 10% shot after the SEC chaos last week.  (Lose to Houston or make and lose the CCG and the odds becomes <1%).    So we're looking for more chaos, a repeat of last week.

All ranks are current CFP Ranks 

Pre-Saturday Games

With the Thanksgiving holiday, there's a lot more of these this week.  And some of them are surprisingy good/relevant... even if most of them don't look to be close.  Tough to choose a top option here - this is a week to follow a bunch of games.  I'll say the biggest one for BYU (and the Big 12) is Oregon St @ #11 Boise State (Friday 10 AM, FOX).  Right now Boise St is locked into that 4th conference champ spot, ahead of the Big 12 champ.  And that doesn't change unless Boise takes a loss.  Oregon St isn't good and Boise is favored by 20.5, but Oregon St has more talent than most outside the P4 and just beat a quality Wazzu team. Root for Oregon St

Other options include

• Memphis @ #17 Tulane (Thursday 5:30 PM, ESPN): The odds of an AAC champ passing the Big 12 champ are definitely lower with Army losing.... but not impossible. Tulane is ranked two spots ahead of BYU and finishes against 9-2 Memphis and 10-1 Army (both receiving AP votes).  Whereas BYU finishes against 4-7 Houston and (if we make the CCG) one of #16 ASU, #18 Iowa St, or #25 Colorado.  Is that enough to pass Tulane?  Probably.... but I'd still feel better about things if Tulane took a loss.  Memphis has a solid record, but Tulane is favored by 14.5.  Root for Memphis

• Georgia Tech @ #7 Georgia (Friday 5:30 PM, ABC): Georgia has played a killer schedule and even with 3 losses will be ahead of BYU unless BYU wins the CCG.  Since making the CCG isn't in our control, it'd be nice to open the door for an at-large...which means we need more SEC chaos. It's highly unlikley GaTech wins this - Georgia is favored by 19.5 - but it's a rivalry game and Tech is better than they've been in a while.  Root for Georgia Tech

• Mississippi St @ #15 Ole Miss (Friday 1:30 PM, ABC): Ole Miss almost certianly isn't making the playoffs... not coming from #14.  But then again, 10-2 BYU isn't making the playoffs from #19 without a LOT of chaos.  So if we want that slightest chance of an at-large spot, it mean hoping for teams ahead of us to lose.  Vegas apparently hasn't even put a number on this game with how bad Mississippi St is, but we'll be looking for the unimaginable and root for Mississippi St

• A few games that are interesting, but don't quite make the cut
  
  
  • Oklahoma St @ #25 Colorado (Friday 10AM, ABC): Colorado isn't ahead of us for the CCG so we don't need them to lose.  And if we make it to the CCG, our fate doesn't depend on how quality our opponent is.  Win and we make the playoff.  Lose and we don't, whether we play ASU, Iowa St, Colorado, or even Baylor.  So no need to root for them to win, no real need to root for them to lose.  I guess the only possible motivation is that a BYU/Colorado CCG would draw the best ratings...but if both ASU and Iowa St lose to open the door for Colorado, I'd rather Colorado also lose and we get matched up against Baylor or Kansas St.  Colorado won't lose (they're favored by 17) but root for Oklahoma St anyway
  
  
  • Utah St @ Colorado St (Friday 1:30 PM, FS1): This one is a deep deep cut, but it comes down to Boise St.  Assuming Boise St beats Oregon they'll be playing either UNLV or Colorado St in their CCG. UNLV is #48 and Colorado St is #88 (by Sagarin).  Right now they're tied, but we definitely want Boise St playing the better team and having more chance to lose.  If Colorado St loses here, then UNLV is guaranteed the spot.  And unlike the rest in this group, it's not a pipe dream, with Colorado St favored by only 5.5. Root for Utah St

Saturday Morning (Up until Noon Mountain)

With so much on Friday, Saturday is a bit weaker, but also has the games we REALLY care most about.  Just not in the morning. Biggest game from the BYU perspective is Michigan @ #2 Ohio St (10AM, FOX). This game almost certainly doesn't matter for playoff access. A 10-2 non-CCG-participating Ohio St is making it over a 10-2 non-CCG participating BYU.  But if we DO make the playoffs, there's a real chance it's as the #12 seed.  And that means playing the best non-champ in round 1.  As things stand, that's the Ohio St/Oregon CCG loser.  And I'd prefer Ohio St gets knocked out of that, in which case it likley becomes the Penn St/Oregon loser or possibly Texas.  Not great, but better than Ohio St.  tOSU is favored by 21, but still root for Michigan

Other options include:

• #8 Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (10AM, ABC): We've already seen Vandy knock off some talented teams and come close on others and Tennessee is only favored by 10.5.  If we want that emergency second path into the playoff, we need chaos and that means we root for Vanderbilt

• UTSA @ Army (10AM, CBSSN): Like I said, I'm not realistically THAT worried about Tulane jumping the Big 12 champ... but I'd feel a little better to completely remove the possibility.  Simplest way is if Tulane loses, but an Army loss here would also do the trick by removing a potential quality win.  Army is favored by 7, but root for UTSA

• After this, there's a few interesting games worth noting
  
  
  • #15 South Carolina @ #12 Clemson (10AM, ESPN): Both of these teams are ahead of BYU in the pecking order.  And after the game, one will be ahead and one behind.  Unavoidable and doesn't really matter who wins or not.  That said, with a win Clemson still could make the ACC CCG and THEN take a loss there to also drop behind us.  It's an extremely long shot to work out that way but if we're talking BYU getting an at-large spot, everything is a long shot.  Clemson is favored by 2.5, root for Clemson. 
    
  
  
  • There's also 2 Big 12 games that should be close.  The better of the two is Kansas @ Baylor (10AM, ESPN2) where Baylor is favored by only 1.  Kansas wins and they're bowl-eligible which helps our worst loss (useful if it comes down to an at-large opinion).  Baylor wins and they can make the CCG as our opponent over Kansas St in the case that Iowa St, Arizona St and Colorado all lose.  Honestly not sure if that's better or worse than Kansas St, so root for Kansas and our resume 
    
  
  
  • West Virginia @ Texas Tech (10AM, FS1): Should be a good game with Texas Tech favored by only 3.5.... but the odds of this game mattering to BYU are miniscule.  Not quite zero though.  If ASU, Iowa St, BYU, Colorado AND Baylor all lose, Texas Tech winning here can still backdoor BYU into the CCG against Iowa St.  If West Virginia wins it would be Iowa St vs either West Virginia or ASU (depending on the TCU/Cincinnati outcome).  So if Colorado has lost and Baylor is struggling, I guess you can choose to root for Texas Tech

Saturday Afternoon (Noon-3 Mountain)

Thiis one isn't the best window overall, but has the first huge game for BYU. #16 Arizona St @ Arizona (1:30 PM, FOX) is a rivalry game, so even if ASU is favored by 9, anything can happen here.  And we NEED either ASU or Iowa St to win to have a shot, so this should be an easy game for allegiances.  I know some here have said they want a second shot at ASU and would prefer ASU win and Iowa St lose... but at this point, we definitely can't be picky.  Root for Arizona

Other games to keep an eye on:

• Auburn @ #13 Alabama (1:30 PM, ABC): Alabama has 3 losses, but because they're in the mighty SEC (where they've gone 4-3) they're still somehow #13 in the eyes of the committee. If there's any chance for BYU to sneak in without making the CCG, we need chaos and that means Alabama losing as 11.5 point favorites.  Root for Auburn

• Cal @ #9 SMU (1:30 PM, ESPN2): Along with chaos, if we want that backdoor path, we need to look as good as possible. Which means we need SMU to look as good as possible and ideally win the ACC with only one loss. Nice to see them favored here by 13.5, Root for SMU

• #6 Miami @ Syracuse (1:30 PM, ESPN): We're not jumping Miami for an at-large no matter what.  Either they are 11-1, playing in the ACC CCG vs SMU... or they're 10-2 and not playing in the CCG.  And we know the committee likes them more than a 2 loss BYU in that scenario.  Anything that gets us ahead of them requires us getting an autobid as conference champ.  But if Miami loses here to drop to 10-2, then 10-2 Clemson plays SMU in the title game.  And since teams tend to drop 2 or 3 spots, there's the slightest chance we could pass Clemson if they lose to SMU.  Not likely, but possible, especially since we did beat SMU.  Miami is favored by 10.5, but root for Syracuse 

• The other game of note is #5 Notre Dame @ USC (1:30 PM, CBS).... but it ultimately doesn't matter.  Even if Notre Dame loses (despite being favored by 7.5), we're not passing them.   So root for either or neither or both - this one has no impact on our ability to make the CCG or even to steal an at-large if we don't make the CCG.

Saturday Prime (3-5:59 Mountain)

One of the three big games of the day here.  #24 Kansas St @ #18 Iowa St (5:30 PM, FOX) is absolutely huge for BYU, especially if Arizona St beat Arizona earlier in the day. If both ASU and Iowa St win, we have no path to the CCG, so rooting interest here depends on previous results.  If ASU won, root hard for Kansas St. If ASU already lost, then it depends on if you'd rather face Iowa St or Colorado/Kansas St/Baylor (which of those three depends on other results obviously).  Iowa St is favored by only 2.5, so this should be a good one.

That's the clear top game, but there's a few other options:

• Purdue @ #10 Indiana (5PM, FS1): Do you believe in miracles?  Indiana is absolutely in the playoff with a win here, despite playing a terrible schedule.  But if by some miracle they lose to 1-10 Purdue who hasn't beaten anyone in FBS this season, Indiana will drop behind BYU (assuming a BYU win). Will that happen?  No, Purdue is terrible and Indiana is favored by 29.5, but root for Purdue anyway.

• Nevada @ #22 UNLV (6 PM, CBSSN): At the very start of this I mentioned that we need Boise St to lose to open up the 4th bye for the Big 12.  And the odds of Boise St losing in the CCG to UNLV are much higher than them losing to Colorado St.  So let's root for UNLV to live up to their status as 17.5 point favorites and win this one.

• Washington @ #1 Oregon (5:30 PM, FOX): Oregon and Ohio St seem to be the top two teams in the country.  And they share a conference so one of them will likely be the #5 seed, which is unfortunate for the #12 seed....which is what we'll probably get if we make it.  But if Oregon loses here...and then again in the CCG to Ohio St, the #5 will probably be Penn St or possibly Texas.  Which isn't great, but slightly better.  Oregon is favored by 19.5, but it's a rivalry game, so crazy things happen.  Root for Washington.

• #3 Texas @ #20 Texas A&M (5:30 PM, FOX): The SEC title game will be Georgia vs the winner of this game.  If Texas loses, they aren't dropping below us.... but aTm might jump us - especially if they go on to win the SEC, which would basically steal a spot.  Texas is favored by 6, root for Texas

Saturday Evening (6-8:30 Mountain)

The evening only has 3 games this week... but Houston @ #19 BYU (8:15PM, ESPN) is the must-watch game of the week.  Hopefully, either ASU or Iowa St have lost and this is a win-and-in game to make the CCG.  But even if those have both won, with a repeat of last week, there could be just enough chaos to sneak in at-large.  10% per ESPN.  Not great, but better than if we lose here or even if we struggle.  Last chance for a statement, so root for BYU to not only win but to do so by more than the spread of 13.5

Other games to watch at night include:

• Don't worry about other games.  Even if there were anything decent (there's not unless you are weirdly invested if Bronco and New Mexico can get bowl eligible), nothing should be distracting you from the BYU game.