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Sep 23, 2024
1:53:51pm
krindorr Playmaker
What to watch in Week 5 (from the BYU perspective)

So after an off-season of discontent, things have gone a LOT better than expected and Week 4 was as good as we could have asked for.  SMU cemented themselves as a meaningful victory and then BYU ended the night by annihilating Kansas St.  Led BYU to be ranked for the first time in a while, and expectations are soaring.  Have to avoid the let-down game, but we're now looking at not only Big 12 games, but other ranked teams to lose so we can keep moving up.

 

Pre-Saturday Games

Not any great games to seek out in the early slate this week.  There's some if you want to watch, but the best of them is Washington @ Rutgers (Friday 6 PM, FOX). It's not relevant, but it could be a fun take on how well former PAC teams are doing in the B1G.  Washington isn't near the team they were last year (see loss to Wazzu) and Rutgers ....might be good (see 3-0 record even if it's against a mediocre VaTech and two patsies) so this could be a decent game. Rutgers is actually favored by 2.5.  That said, if you're watching this, it's because you need football that day and simply lack better options.

(The only) other options include

  • Virginia Tech @ #7 Miami (Friday 5:30PM, ESPN): Virginia Tech lost to Vanderbilt AND Rutgers.  Not a lot of teams can claim to have done both of those in the same year.  Miami is undefeated and one of the top games in the country.  We'll root for Miami to lose so the ACC has no path to an at-large bid... but Miami is going to win this one.  They're favored by 18.5 and it honestly might not be enough.
  • Army @ Temple (Thursday 5:30PM, ESPN): This is your only option for Thursday college football. Normally at least you get two small-brand teams that may play a close game, but this time Army is much better than Temple and favored by 13.5

 

Saturday Morning (Up until Noon Mountain)

In a rarity, BYU gets the early morning game with #22 BYU @ Baylor (10AM, FS1) under the radar nationally...but clearly the top game of the week for BYU fans.  On the one hand, it feels like BYU is a better team than Baylor and should easily take this one.  However, it's on the road, it's early, and BYU has had some letdown games in the past after big wins.  Vegas even has Baylor favored by 2.5, so this one might merit a bit more concern than would be justified at first look.  There's also not a lot of other great games in this window (though there are some big brands), so viewership should hopefully be decent (by FS1 standards)

Other games to watch:

  • #20 Oklahoma St @ #23 Kansas St (10AM, ESPN) matches up what was expected to be the top two legacy Big 12 teams.  Both were supposed to be in the mix for the conference title, but were both embarassed by schools from Utah.  Both ranked, but one of them is going to be 0-2 in conference after this week and have a near insurmountable hole. Kansas St is favored by 5.5 and we probably want them to win for the resume boost. Also, it would be nice if Oklahoma St continues to be disjointed offensively until we play them.  This is probably the #2 game of the day for us...but unfortunatley at the same time as ours.
  • Not a lot of other good games, but Minnesota @ #12 Michigan (10AM, FOX) is the best of the remaining options.  On a major network with a ranked Michigan team and the closest line of the somewhat relevant games (Michigan by only 5.5).  For this one, root against Michigan. Two losses would definitely drop them behind us (so long as we win)

 

Saturday Afternoon (Noon-3 Mountain)

This window has a lot of pretty good games....but nothing great.  My top choice is probably Colorado @ UCF (1:30 PM, FOX) but it could be any of about 5 games.  This one gets the nod since it features an undefeated future conference opponent (UCF) going up agianst a 3-1 Colorado...but with a 14 point spread, this one might not-be a must watch.  Honestly, I normally prefer to watch one game instead of dividing focus with the quad-screen, but this viewing window is a great argument for multiple games at once.

Others to watch on your quad-screen include:

  • TCU @ Kansas (1:30 PM, ESPN+) probably can't actually be watched on the quad screen.  But it's worth watching.  Kansas is a future opponent who was a preseason conference favorite and has fallen apart.  TCU is also looking weak (bad enough that Kansas is still favored by 2), so this is a chance for KU to get their act together.
  • #15 Louisville @ #16 Notre Dame (1:30 PM, Peacock) is the biggest ranked-on-ranked matchup and should be a great game (Notre Dame favored by 6.5).  The real nice thing about this one is that the loser will drop behind BYU (with a BYU win).  But it's probably ALSO not available on quad-screen
  • #21 Oklahoma @ Auburn (1:30 PM, ABC) is another high-profile game, expected to be close (Oklahoma favored by 2.5) and - most interestingly - another team we could pass with a loss. And Arkansas @ #24 Texas A&M (1:30 PM, ESPN) is basically the opposite scenario.  A high profile game, expected to be close (aTm favored by 3.5) and the chance that Texas A&M could jump us with a win over a 3-1 SEC team (Arkansas)

 

Saturday Prime (3-5:59 Mountain)

Most people will be overlooking the Rice game, but from a BYU perspective, it's really important to consider.... Nope, completely kidding.  Relevance to BYU is an important factor, but the clear best game in this window is #2 Georgia @ #4 Alabama (5:30 PM, ABC).  At some point a game is just big enough that you watch as a fan of college football.  Alabama is a home underdog (by only 1.5, but still) for the first time in forever and this one isn't to be missed.

Other options include:

  • #19 Illinois @ #9 Penn St (5:30 PM, NBC): Another ranked-on-ranked matchup, but not expected to be particularly close (Penn St favored by 17.5), this one is exciting to root against Illinois in the hopes of moving up more in the rankings
  • #18 Iowa St @ Houston (5PM, FS1):  This one involves Big 12 teams, including a conference contender ranked ahead of us in the Top 25 (Iowa St) and a future opponent (Houston).  But realistically, I don't know that we need to see too much more to know Houston is bad.  They just lost 34-0 to Cincinnati so a 13.5 line favoring Iowa St honestly seems conservative

 

Saturday Evening (6-8:30 Mountain)

Saturday evening is normally the weakest window, but at least has more games this week than in the past.  Most eyes will likely be on the Oregon game, but it's probably the 6th most interesting for us.  The top game here is very clearly Arizona @ #10 Utah (8:15PM, ESPN). Both Arizona and Utah are on our schedule, with Arizona the next opponent and Utah currently seen by most as the top of the conference.  Realistically, if we want the Big 12 to get multiple bids, Utah needs to win this one....but I don't expect anyone here to root for them.  Also, Utah is favored by 12.5, but I'm not sure I'd be that comfortable if I was Utah.  Arizona was a preseason favorite for a reason, has some elite playmakers, and Utah hasn't been as consistent as they'd like

That game is the top one in this window, but there's a smattering of other interesting games:

  • Florida St @ SMU (6 PM, ACCN): This is an interesting one.  Florida St has been horrid, but still has a big name. If SMU (favored by 6) wins, that makes the BYU victory over SMU look better.  On the other hand, FSU had enough talent to be ranked high in preseason, so it wouldn't be a shock for them to find their footing and slow SMU down, which would be unfortunate for BYU.
  • Cincinnati @ Texas Tech (6 PM, ESPN2) is the other Big 12 game, but neither Cincy nor Texas Tech appears on the BYU schedule this year.  That said, both are 3-1 overall and 1-0 in conference and it's predicted to be tight (TTU -3.5) so an interesting game to watch.
  • Finally, if you want to feel a little dirty, you can root for Wyoming to win in Air Force @ Wyoming (6 PM, CBSSN).  At this point, Wyoming isn't an important part of our resume, but it still doesn't look great if they go winless.  Air Force is favored by only 4, so this might be their best chance for a win (either this one or vs Utah St)

 

krindorr
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krindorr
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