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Sep 10, 2024
11:10:09am
krindorr Playmaker
What to watch in Week 3 (from the BYU perspective) - a Saturday to spend with the family

Coming out earlier this week due to the number of interesting pre-Saturday games in this week.  Especially in comparison to a Saturday that is generally disappointing and/or underwhelming until we get to the BYU game at the end of the night.

And there's still things to learn about BYU, even against a weak Wyoming team.  Beating Southern Illinois was expected...but BYU did it more effectively than expected.  And while it wasn't as offensively pretty as desired, BYU also exceeded expectations against SMU, going to 2-0.  Now with the high likelihood of beating Wyoming (ESPN says 86.3%), a disgruntled fanbase is starting to get excited about football again - especially if we can clean up some of the more frustrating aspects of last week.  Here's the plan for Week 3...when (except for BYU) the best games are NOT on Saturday

 

Pre-Saturday Games

This week has a surprising amount of pre-Saturday interest for fans of BYU or the Big 12.  The clear headliner is #20 Arizona @ #14 Kansas St (Friday 6 PM, FOX).  Both of those are future opponents, with Kansas St being the next opponent.  Plus it's a top 25 matchup AND both teams have a lot to prove after poor showings (in games they did win) last week.  Kansas St is favored by 7 and frankly this is the most interesting game of the week (non-BYU division)

The two other games worth watching before Saturday are:

  • UNLV @ Kansas (Friday 5PM, ESPN): We don't play Kansas until late this season, but they are a future opponent and were considered to be one of the top teams in the conference until a disheartening loss to Illinois.  They also play a surprisingly decent UNLV, who is 2-0 and maybe .... good?  Sagarin has UNLV #49 (one spot ahead of BYU), so this is a game Kansas should win (they're favored by 7) but not a gimme.
  • Arizona St @ Texas St (Thursday 5:30 PM, ESPN): Speaking of teams that were thought to be terrible but might be good, Arizona St has wildly exceeded expectations so far this year.  Texas St isn't great, but they're one of the better G5 teams and Sagarin has them in the same range as Mississippi St, who ASU beat last week.  ASU is favored by 2.5, and this should give us another idea if they're for real or not before BYU plays them late in the season. (FWIW, Sagarin has BYU #50, ASU #51)

 

Saturday Morning (Up until Noon Mountain)

After a great pre-Saturday lineup, the morning slot is a bit of a snoozefest.  Games are generally not close, not relevant or neither.  Only one future opponent plays and it's a 20 point spread.  I'm honestly hesitant to recommend any of these games and would generally suggest channel-surfing to see what comes up, but if I have to choose one it's Memphis @ Florida St (10 AM, ESPN).  Memphis is 2-0 and always quality, with Florida St 0-2 after sky-high preseason expectations.  Florida St is favored by 7...but like I said, this is one to just channel flip or to get some things done with the family to make up for watching Thursday and Friday.

Other games to flip to and hope one gets interesting:

  • 13 Oklahoma St @ Tulsa (10AM, ESPN2) is the future Big 12 opponent...who is favored by 20 against an overmatched opponent.  But there's a chance it gets interesting, so keep an eye on it
  • There's two games involving disappointing Big 12 teams that we don't play this year Cincinnati @ Miami OH (10AM, ESPNU) has Cincy favored by 2.5. North Texas @ Texas Tech (10AM, FS1) with Texas Tech favored by 9.5 after being blown out by Wazzu
  • And then a few games that'll probably get more national following, but aren't interesting or particularly competitive. 24 Boston College @ 6 Missouri (10:45, SECN) is the only ranked on ranked matchup and 4 Alabama @ Wisconsin (10AM, FOX) will probably be the most watched game despite Bama being favored by 16.

As mentioned, this is a pretty weak slate, with no particularly great games, but there's enough games with potential that something decent will hopefully show up.  And sadly (spoiler alert), this might make it the best window of the day.

 

Saturday Afternoon (Noon-3 Mountain)

After a very weak morning slate, the afternoon is somehow worse?  There's only 5 ranked teams playing in this window and none of them should be close games.  There's only 2 big 12 teams, and only one is a future opponent.  So that reality sadly leaves 12 Utah @ Utah St (2:30 PM, CBSSN) as probably the most worthwhile game to watch in this window. Utah might be vulnerable if Rising is out, but they're favored by 20.5 and this isn't a great game, it's only here because of the lack of other good ones in this window.

Again, we're hoping something else decent shows up, most likely from:

  • West Virginia @ Pitt (1:30 PM, ESPN) is the other Big 12 game.  Utah ranks slighlty ahead based on being a future opponent.... but this one should be a better game, both as a result of being a rivalry game and and closer game, with West Virginia favored by 2.5 
  • 18 Notre Dame @ Purdue (1:30 PM, CBS/Paramount+): This is the closest Vegas line (Notre Dame favored by 10.5) among ranked teams and obviously Notre Dame had a terrible loss last week, so this one could be interesting, especially with Notre Dame on the road
  • 9 Oregon @ Oregon St (1:30 PM, FOX): Read the above blurb and this is a near repeat. Oregon hasn't lost but hasn't looked up to expectations and is going on the road versus an undefeated rival.  The line is 16.5, but in a weak slate, this game could be interesting

 

Saturday Prime (3-5:59 Mountain)

So at this point on Saturday, you'd assume the games finally get good, right?  But no, the best of this window is UCF @TCU (5:30 PM, FOX).  It's the first conference game of the Big 12 season, even if we don't play TCU this year.  Like every other top choice for Saturday, it has more to do with the lack of other options, but at least this one should be close (TCU favored by 0.5) and involves two dark horse teams in the conference

Other options include:

  • Air Force @ Baylor (5:30 PM, FS1): Baylor certainly isn't good... but there's still some uncertainty given that they've played (and soundly beat) one terrible team, and then lost ugly to one team that is considered very good.  BYU plays at Baylor two weeks after this, so it'll be interesting to see if Baylor gets their act together against a lesser (but better than Tarleton St) opponent.  Baylor is favored by 15.5 and ranked #36 by Sagarin...which currently has them slightly ahead of #50 BYU
  • Colorado @ Colorado State (5:30 PM, CBS): Colorado looked terrible last week against Nebraska and dinged the rep of the Big 12.  Last year they barely eked out a win against Colorado St and are only favored here by 7.5, so this is a dangerous spot for a high-profile Big 12 team.  Again, not the best game

 

Saturday Evening (6-8:30 Mountain)

Saturday evening is normally the weakest window...which is mostly the same here, but at least we get the BYU game.  BYU @ Wyoming (7PM, CBSSN) is a game that BYU should win, but there's still a lot to be learned.  BYU and Jake Retzlaff looked great against Southern Illinois and then not-so-great against SMU.  It's still an open question how good SMU is, but Wyoming is almost certainly somewhere between them and SIU (SMU is #42 Sagarin, Wyoming is #107, SIU is #119).  BYU is favored by 10, which seems a little low, but I'll mostly be watching to see how we execute.

 

Other games to keep an eye on:

  • Rice @ Houston (6 PM, ESPN+): Houston was expected to be the worst Big 12 team and very much lived up to that in Week 1 with a 27-7 beating from UNLV of all teams.  But Week 2 somewhat redeemed them.  Not a ton, they still lost to Oklahoma, but at least looked decent.  And UNLV looked amazing...but it was against Utah Tech.  So Houston is still 0-2 and looks bad, but they're a future opponent, and this is one of the more winnable games on their schedule.  They're favored by 4.5 and this will be a chance for them to figure some things out.
  • ummmm.... I always try to list at least 3.  And there's no 3rd game of interest, especially with the BYU game on.  If I have to choose a third, it's Maryland @ Virginia (6 PM, ACCN) just based on it being a P4 OOC game with a tight Vegas line (Maryland by 2.5)...but really, just watch the BYU game
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Sep 10, 2024 at 11:10:09am
Message modified by krindorr on Sep 10, 2024 at 11:13:18am
Message modified by krindorr on Sep 10, 2024 at 11:14:57am
Message modified by krindorr on Sep 10, 2024 at 11:32:31am
krindorr
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