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Sep 16, 2024
10:57:18am
krindorr Truly Addicted User
What to watch in Week 4 (from the BYU perspective)

Sitting at 3-0, there's some real excitement building with BYU football.  Also some discontent on the offensive side after Retzlaff had quite a few poor throws (overshadowing for some the many excellent throws he made) and also the lack of a running game.  But this week should be telling.  So far we've beaten two patsies and SMU...who is maybe good?  Maybe bad?  Maybe somewhere in between?  This week should tell us a lot about the rest of the season.  And there's some good football along the way. 

And maybe even more importantly, some extremely relevant games.  That's the theme of the week really - there's a lot of marquee matchups, where you'll instead want to be focused more on one of the undercards.

 

Pre-Saturday Games

Last week, the Thursday and Friday games were definitely ones to watch, while Saturday was less inspiring.  This week is the opposite.  The best pre-Saturday game is #24 Illinois @ #22 Nebraska (Friday 6PM, FOX). Matches up two ranked teams and has the closest line (Nebraska by 8.5) of the 4 pre-Saturday games.  It doesn't have anything to do with BYU or the Big 12, but it's the best of a weak slate

Other (weak to mediocre) options include

  • Stanford @ Syracuse (Friday 5:30PM, ESPN): This is the only other P4 v P4 pre-Saturday game, and there's a fair number of BYU fans who seem to enjoy hate-watching Stanford.  That said, we might want to root for them here as Syracuse is undefeated and currently comes in at #28 in the AP Poll, so may be between us and getting a higher rank.  It's unlikley that Stanford will beat them (Syracuse is favored by 9.5), but a Syracuse win quite possibly gets them into the top 25.
  • San Jose St @ Washington St (Friday 8PM, CW): See above.  Washington St is strongly favored (-14.5) and is ahead of us in the others receiving votes section.  They're only #31 though and playing a weaker opponent so a win here probably isn't quite enough to get them ranked. 
  • South Alabama @Appalachian State (Thursday 5:30PM, ESPN): I wouldn't recommend this game, but if you absolutely need football on Thursday night it's either this or the Patriots/Jets game in the NFL.  App State is favored by 7 and the Jets by 6.5.

 

Saturday Morning (Up until Noon Mountain)

Frankly, the morning slate ALSO doesn't have any that are must-watch games, but is at least salvaged by a few relevant games.  The best of these is Kansas @ West Virginia (10AM, ESPN2). Both of these teams are 1-2, with their only victories over FCS teams.  But both were expected to be dangerous in the Big 12 this season (especially Kansas).  Given that we play Kansas in two months, it's worth watching to see if they can get their act together.  If nothing else, it should be close as WVU is only favored by 2.5

Other games to watch:

  • Houston @ Cincinnati (10AM, FS1) matches up Houston (another future conference opponent) in one of the few games they could plausibly win (Cincy favored by only 5.5).  These are (again) two weak teams, but at least the teams playing have some BYU relevance
  • Most of the rest of the country will be watching the games on FOX, ABC, or ESPN.  Of those the only one with a line within two scores is Florida @ Mississippi St (10AM, ESPN) which again matches up two bad teams...but at least you can hope for a close game (Florida favored by 4.5) or enjoy Florida's continued implosion.

Like I said, it's a weak slate. My 3 picks for best games, the teams have a combined 7-11 record - and only 2-11 in FBS play with the only FBS victories being Houston over Rice and Cincy over Miami (OH).  But it's still better than watching a good Ohio St team beat Marshall by 40+.  There's a chance NC State @ 21 Clemson (10 AM, ABC) surprises and is closer than the 17 point line favoring Clemson, in which case, possibly flip over to that one.  Realistically though, just enjoy the relevant Big 12 games, even if they aren't as high on the national radar.

 

Saturday Afternoon (Noon-3 Mountain)

For the second week in a row, the Utah game is the one to watch in this window.  Last week, it was mostly due to a dearth of decent alternatives.  Not so this week - there's actaully a big game that will probably overshadow this one for national audiences, but from a Big 12/ BYU perspective, 12 Utah @ 14 Oklahoma St (2PM, FOX) is one of the best games of the year.  Both teams are top 15, and (along with Kansas St) represent two of the three teams most likely to win the conference.  More than that, it's predicted to be very close (Oklahoma St favored by 2, but it's swung wildly between favoring Oklahoma St and favoring Utah) AND both are future BYU opponents.  This might not be big on the national radar, but it's a huge one for the Big 12. 

Note that I'll actually be at this one. I move around a lot with the Air Force (and never in Utah) and so don't get to many BYU games, but my dad is a big Utah fan so I'm surprising him by taking him to this one.  It's only a few hours away from where he lives and the closest Utah has played to him since he moved away from Utah 20 years ago.  

If you're fundamentally opposed to watching Utah, some other options include:

  • 11 USC @ 18 Michigan (1:30 PM, CBS) is going to get the most national interest.  By ranking the teams may not be quite as good (Michigan has a loss and is ranked the lowest of the 4) or as closely matched (USC favored by 6) as Utah/Oklahoma St....but USC and Michigan are much MUCH larger brands. From a viewership perspective, this one is going to be the clear winner and the one the country is watching and talking about
  • Arizona St @ Texas Tech (1:30 PM, FS1): A team picked to finish at or near the bottom of the Big 12, only to surprise by starting 3-0 (including a P4 win + an annihilation of a bad Wyoming team) and now just getting a few stray votes in the AP Poll?  If Arizona St doesn't sound familiar, then you've not been paying attention to BYU this season.  They're undefeated and nobody is yet sure if they are for real, going against a 2-1 Texas Tech team that is somehow favored by 3, having dismantled North Texas after embarrassing showings against Abilene Christian and Wazzu.  ASU is a future opponent as well, so this one should be interesting.

 

Saturday Prime (3-5:59 Mountain)

For the third straight window of the day, there's going to be a clear national game hogging all the spotlight.  And for the third straight window, it's not the one I recommend.  Instead watch SMU @ TCU (3PM, CW).  Oddly enough, despite involving a Big 12 team, this one isn't about TCU.  This is really an early insight to how good BYU is.  So far we've beaten two of the worst teams in college football (Wyoming is #112 and Southern Illinois #118 by Sagarin) .... and SMU.  So it's useful to know how good SMU is...and the truth is that we simply don't know yet. SMU has lost to us and beaten two teams that are even weaker than our opponents (Nevada is #128, Houston Christian is #233).  So playing a competent TCU team should tell us a lot about SMU and, by extension, a lot about BYU.  If SMU keeps it close or wins (TCU is favored by 2.5) that's a great sign for BYU...but if they get blown out, it's a sobering thought heading into BYU's game later Saturday night.

Other options include:

  • 6 Tennessee @ 15 Oklahoma (5:30 PM, ABC): Here's the aforementioned big national game that will suck up all the headlines.  And frankly, it's a great one.  Big names, ranked teams, college gameday, tight line (Tenn by 7.5).  It simply falls here because it's not overly relevant to BYU or the Big 12.  Worth watching just as a fan of college football, and luckily it's late enough (and SMU/TCU early enough) that you'll probably be able to watch this one without missing much of any of the other games I've thus far mentioned
  • Finally, there's Wyoming @ North Texas (5PM, ESPN+).  I can't in good conscience recommend ANYBODY subject themselves or loved ones to watching this, but it'll be interesting to see exactly how bad Wyoming is, going up against a North Texas team that just lost by 45 to Texas Tech.  And yet, North Texas is favored by 9.5.  Like I said, don't watch this one, but check the score at least.  It gets the third spot over hate-watching Florida St or a perfectly good, generally irrelevant game between Iowa and Minnesota.

 

Saturday Evening (6-8:30 Mountain)

Saturday evening is normally the weakest window, but (as is fairly common) has the BYU game, which makes it one of the most worthwhile.  This week 13 Kansas St @ BYU (8:30PM, ESPN) is the absolute last game of the week (non-Hawaii category) so probably won't draw huge numbers.  Starting at 8:30 PM, a 3 hr 20 minute game (on average) means it'll end around midnight mountain time.  Or 1 AM central time - not ideal for Kansas St fans.  And a game from 10:30 PM to 2 AM for East Coasters definitely isn't getting a lot of attention.  But don't let that fool you - this is a big game on its merits and not just because it's BYU.  Both teams are undefeated, Kansas St is ranked and BYU is receiving votes.  Kansas St is favored...but only by 7 as vampire BYU has a strong history in late-night home games.  It should also be telling for both teams.  BYU as mentioned, has played two horrid teams and a TBD-if-they're-decent SMU.  Kansas St (the early conference favorite) beat up on Arizona, but struggled with Tulane.  Should be a good game that a lot of the nation will unfortunately miss

Other games to keep an eye on:

  • Baylor @ Colorado (6 PM, FOX): This one will draw ratings because it's Colorado, but it's also interesting on the merits. Both are lower-end Big 12 teams who lost ugly to ranked teams, but could make a move towards being mid-level or second-tier teams in the conference.  Add in the close Vegas line (Colorado by 1.5) and that Baylor is a future opponent and this one is absolutely worth watching ... for the first 2.5 hours until the BYU game starts
  • There's not really a third decent game that is also relevant, but if you're looking for another option, the biggest name one is Michigan St @ Boston College (6PM, ACCN) with BC favored by 6.5.  Michigan St is undefeated, but getting zero poll votes, Boston College is right on the verge of the top 25.  It's better than the remaining alternatives, but can't see a way this is preferred over either of the two above.
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Sep 16, 2024 at 10:57:18am
Message modified by krindorr on Sep 19, 2024 at 11:52:49am
Message modified by krindorr on Sep 20, 2024 at 8:52:34am
Message modified by krindorr on Sep 23, 2024 at 11:04:15am
krindorr
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krindorr
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krindorr Truly Addicted User
Sep 16, 10:57am

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