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Oct 7, 2024
2:33:35pm
krindorr Truly Addicted User
What to Watch Week 7 (the BYU Perspective)

The hype train is rolling. BYU is 5-0, has the two best wins of any Big 12 team, and ranked #14.  It's good times.  Now the key is to keep it going agianst an Arizona team that has been up and down, but still has some formidable talent to be a threat if/when they get their act together.  

 

Pre-Saturday Games

Pre-Saturday has two Big 12 teams, two future opponents, 1 ranked team, and 1 game with a point spread less than 5.  And if you're trying to decide which of all those things to watch... well, it's all #16 Utah @ Arizona St (Friday 8:30 PM, ESPN) which is the clear best game for not just BYU fans, but nationally (among pre-Saturday games).  Utah is ranked and a preseason favorite, but hasn't looked good. They're likely...maybe...potentially getting Rising back this week, so it'll be interesting to see if he can jump start their moribund offense.  And that's even before getting to ASU, who started hot against terrible teams (Wyoming, Miss St, Texas St), before losing to Texas Tech, and then rebounding against Kansas (...who might also be terrible).  They're 4-1 but still hard to believe in.  That said, weird things happen in the desert late at night, so this one could get crazy.  Utah is favored by only 4.

Other options include

  • Coastal Carolina @ James Madison (Friday 6 PM, FOX): Yeah, so there's a pretty steep dropp-off in quality/relevance after the Utah/ASU game.  This one at least matches up two 4-1 teams compting for the Sun Belt title?  Plus, there's built-in rooting interest, with most BYU fans happy to see CCU lose.  JMU is favored by 9.5, so here's hoping it works out that way.
  • Northwestern @ Maryland (Friday 6 PM, FOX): I can't sell this game....but it's still probably the next best option, just given that it's a P4 matchup and no other games involve anything even close to being of interest.  Maryland is favored by 10.

 

Saturday Morning (Up until Noon Mountain)

This week only has 9 games in this window.  3 of them are low end G5 matchups, 3 are ranked teams against overmatched opponents where the ranked team is favored by 20+, and 3 are mid-range P5s facing off.  So...not great (unless college football surprises us with some crazy upsets).  I'll say the best is Washington @ Iowa (10AM, FOX).  Both teams are kind of middling, but have shown upside in the past.  And Iowa State's victory over Iowa is (along with BYU beating SMU) the best OOC victory for the Big 12.  Seriously, the XII is 5-9 OOC this year and two of those victories are vs Stanford (1-3 in FBS play) and Mississippi St (1-4).  We need the other three (SMU, Iowa, Arkansas) to look as good as possible.  SMU is 4-1, Arkansas 3-2, and Iowa 2-2 in FBS play.  Iowa is favored by 3

As a side note, it's also convenient that this game leads into the BYU game this week

Other possibilities:

  • Wisconsin @ Rutgers (10AM, BTN): Like I said, it's a pretty rough slate this morning.  It's hard to see a lot of caring about who wins this game, but it's got two small things going for it.  Rutgers is 4-1 after years of being terrible, so that's fun.  And it has a close point spread (Rutgers by 2.5) so might be enjoyable football, even if it's completely irrelevant
  • #10 Clemson @ Wake Forest (10AM, ESPN) and South Carolina @ #7 Alabama (10AM, ABC):  These are two of the aforementioned 20 point spreads (Clemson by 20, Alabama by 21).  It's be nice to have either of the favored teams lose, both for our poll position and to add some excitement in the morning.  Clemson plays on the road, but Alabama plays the slightly better team.

 

Saturday Afternoon (Noon-3 Mountain)

BYU is always the top choice, whenever they play.  That said, this time, it's not just because we're BYU fans.  Arizona @ #14 BYU (2 PM, FOX) is legitimately one of the more intriguing matchups, as evidenced by FOX coming out to Provo.  It's also the first time BYU has been favored in a P5 matchup this season, holding a 4 point advantage over an inconsistent Arizona team. Really, the biggest downside to this game is the sheer amount of other amazing games at the same time. That likely means both reduced viewership for BYU and that I'll miss some great games while watching BYU.

Top games I'll regret missing include:

  • #1 Texas @ #18 Oklahoma (1:30 PM, ABC) will absolutely be the most watched game.  The Red River Rivalry is one of the best in the country and this time it involves two ranked teams, including #1 Texas.  Unless this turns into an unexpected blowout (Texas is favored by 14), it's going to draw insane viewership.  Even if it IS a blowout, it's still going to get huge numbers.
  • #4 Penn St @ USC (1:30 PM, CBS): USC losing last week takes some luster off, but this is still two massive brands, one of whom is the #4 team in the country and the other of which is new to the conference.  We also saw last week how tough it is for East Coast teams to travel way west, which helps explain why Penn St is only favored by 5.5.  This could be a great one and stands to get most of the benefit if UT/OU turns into a laugher
  • I'm not going to mind missing Stanford @ #11 Notre Dame (1:30 PM, NBC) or Cal @ #22 Pitt (1:30 PM, ESPN) as much, but they're worth mentioning as two other games that could steal from BYU TV numbers.  Stanford is terrible, but Notre Dame is a huge brand.  And in the other game...Pitt was a national title team 50 years ago, projected to be mediocre to bad this year, who has absolutely surprised, going undefeated so far.  They'll be welcoming a former PAC-12 team with a mediocre record (but at least one surpising win) who is playing their first year in the conference.  Pitt hasn't looked as good as BYU, and Cal not as good as Arizona, so I imagine they'll get fewer viewers than we will, but they'll still take some.

 

Saturday Prime (3-5:59 Mountain)

After a weak morning slate, things got REAL enjoyable in the afternoon, and the prime time slate follows course, with two absolutely fantastic games.  That said, one has to be the best and it's clearly #2 Ohio St @ #3 Oregon (5:30 PM, NBC).  Texas and Ohio St are the current clear best teams...but Oregon is knocking on the door and Ohio St has to travel out west.  Ohio St is favored by 3.5, but this one has massive stakes.  Nothing to do with BYU or the Big 12, but just a ton of national relevance.

 

Other options include:

  • #9 Ole Miss @ #13 LSU (5:30 PM, ABC): This is a great game in it's own right (and should be close with Ole Miss favored by only 2.5), but will likely be overshadowed by the huge game between tOSU and Oregon.  Still, a lot of fun to watch and nice to enjoy knowing that whoever loses will drop below BYU.
  • So... there really isn't a third great game here.  Which is fine, given the quality of the first two. If you want a third, most will lean Florida @ #8 Tennessee (5PM, ESPN) as the two bigger brands on the large OTA channel... but it has a 15.5 point spread.  Instead, give me Washington St @ Fresno St (5PM, FS1) as a preview of the new PAC 12.  This one matches up two pretty good teams, with the better one on the road, so Wazzu is only favored by 3.5

 

Saturday Evening (6-8:30 Mountain)

It's a rare evening that doesn't have BYU or Utah (though they've yet to match up head to head so far this year), but the Big 12 is really taking the role of the former PAC in the after-dark games, which gives us some solid games.  The best is #11 Iowa St @ West Virginia (6PM, FOX).  If you haven't noticed yet, you could just leave FOX on all day and get all the best games (from a BYU / XII perspective).  Neither of these are on the BYU schedule this year, but Iowa St is probably the 2nd best team in the Big 12, but it's a conference of parity.  West Virginia had the (quite excusable) loss to Penn St and the come-from-ahead loss to Pitt, but has seemed to get their act together in conference and is now 2-0 after beating up on Oklahoma St.  They're also at home, so Iowa St is favored by only 3.

 

Another game not to be missed is:

  • #18 Kansas St @ Colorado (8:15 PM, ESPN): This one will probably get the better viewership since it involves Colorado.  And it might even have more to do with BYU.  We don't play either K State or Colorado the rest of the way, butdid beat K-State so them winning directly helps us.  Also, Colorado is undefeated in conference and seems to be getting it together after a rough OOC. Kansas St is favored by 4.5
  • There's 4 other games in this window, but they're a meaningless G5 game, two matchups of mediocre P4s and a #17 Boise St @ Hawaii (9 PM, CBSSN).  That's not  a great game and Boise is favored by 21, so it probably won't even be interesting, but at least I'd be interested or care about the outcome in the case that the unexpected occurred.  Can't say the same for Marshall/Ga Southern, Minnesota/UCLA, or even Syracuse/NC State
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Oct 7, 2024 at 2:33:35pm
Message modified by krindorr on Oct 7, 2024 at 3:45:21pm
krindorr
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krindorr
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