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Oct 11, 2023
4:04:40pm
krindorr Playmaker
What to watch Week 7 - apparently FS1 has good games all day?

Here's the best games to watch in each time slot. For week 7. This won't necessarily always be the top game since I'm looking at this as a BYU fan, meaning that BYU games, future BYU opponents, and conference play will get a slight bonus.  And in this week, just getting a decent game will be a challenge so we'll see what happens

Pre-Saturday

Nothing great, but a few games of note.  The top choice is West Virginia @ Houston (Thursday 5PM, FS1).  West Virginia has a LOT of similarities this season - both were expected to be at the bottom of the conference but are now both 4-1 despite mediocre underlying metrics.  West Virginia has beat better teams than Houston before (including two teams who beat Houston), but it'll be another chance to assess West Virginia and see how long they can keep this going.  They're a future BYU opponent, so definitely want to see if they're for real.  Between now and BYU, West Virginia has a nice schedule of Houston, Oklahoma St, UCF so could be riding high.  That said, they're only favored by 2.5 over Houston, so it could easily all fall apart quickly also

Another option is Sam Houston St @ New Mexico St (Wednesday 7 PM, CBSSN).  It won't be an enjoyable game to watch, but it is likely one of Sam Houston State's better chances at an FBS win this season.  New Mexico St is favored by 3.5, but it's winnable for the Bearkats.  It won't make a difference in BYU's reputation, but at least it'll help avoid some mockery for people here who talked up how good Sam Houston was.

Saturday Morning (Pre-Noon Mountain)

Not a lot of great games here this week.  #1, #2, #3, and #4 all play...but they're favored by 31.5, 33.5, 19.5, and 17.5.  Rather than watch a blowout, scout a future opponent against the most recent BYU opponent - Iowa St @ Cincinnati (10 AM, FS1).  Definitely root for Cincinnati as we've already beaten them and want them to look good while we want Iowa St to fall aprt by the time we face them late in the season.  That said, after a bad loss to Ohio, Iowa St did just beat TCU so it's tough to assess how good they actually are.  Maybe it was the nude pants, but maybe they're getting their act together.

Other options include:

  • Arkansas @ #11 Alabama (10:00, ESPN) - Right now, BYU's signature win is either Cincinnati [a recent G5 who lost to Miami (OH)] or Arkansas...whose best win is against 1-5 Kent St.  Arkansas has had 1 winning regiular season in the last 6 years and is quickly circling the 2023 drain with #11 Bama, 4-2 Florida, Auburn (who just played Georgia close) and a suprisingly 5-1 Mizzou team left on the schedule.  At this point, there's a real concern that BYU has yet to beat a bowl team.  Is there much chance Arkansas changes that against Alabama?  Not really, but it would massively boost BYU's resume if the impossible happened.  Alabama is favored by 20, so if you're going to watch a blowout in this slot, at least make it one with a strong rooting interest.
  • Syracuse @ #4 Florida St (10 AM, ABC) - Syracuse was 4-0, but has droped their last two to quality teams (Clemson and North Carolina).  Florida St looks amazing.  This will almost certainly not be a good game, but I'm trying to find the 3rd best and Florida St is favored by 17.5, which makes it closer than any other remaining meaningful game in this slot.  That said...if you're down to this level of my recommendations, go out for a run or take a break or just flip channels.

Saturday Afternoon (Noon-3 Mountain)

As a rule, I'll always prioritize watching the BYU game... but this year BYU is actually a fascinating case.  Picked towards the bottom of the conference, but now 4-1.  Underlying metrics don't love the team, and as mentioned earlier, none of the wins are that impressive. Arkansas is the best by Sagarin and their claim to fame is mostly that they've lost to good teams.  So there's still a lot to learn about the quality of this BYU team in BYU @ TCU (1:30 PM, ESPN).  TCU is almost certainly the best team (#31 by Sagarin) that BYU has played and it's on the road.  BYU hasn't gotten AP votes yet, but if they win this at some point 5-1 is 5-1, regardless of quality of competition.

Other games to keep an eye on

  • #8 Oregon @ #7 Washington (1:30 PM, ABC) - Does it have anything to do with BYU?  Or even the conference?  No.  Is it a fantastic game (that will unfortunately draw all the viewers away from BYU)?  Absolutely.  This simply looks to be a great, close football game (Washington favored by 3) that would absolutely be my recommendation as the top game in any timeslot that didn't have BYU
  • It's a measure of the strength of this timeslot that #23 Kansas @ Oklahoma St (1:30 PM, FS1) is probably the #3 option.  It's pretty similar to the Iowa St @ Cincy game that was #1 in the morning slot.  Former BYU opponent against future BYU opponent.  A Kansas loss knocks them out of the top 25 and makes room for BYU...but also hurts our resume.  Oklahoma St looked terrible in their first 4 weeks...but then rebounded to beat Kansas St last week.  Should be a good, interesting game and Kansas is only favored by 3

Saturday Prime (3-5:30 Mountain)

This slot is surprisingly weak this week, with Kansas St @ Texas Tech (5 PM, FS1) the lone exciting game before 5:30, and even that is only because BYU plays Texas Tech next week. It also helps that it should be a tight game with Texas Tech favored by 1.5.  Beyond that, there just aren't a lot of BYU-relevant games here

If that's not your choice, other options include:

  • Arizona @ #18 Washington St (5 PM, PAC12) - With it looking more and more likely that Texas and Oklahoma play for the Big 12 championship, it would be nice if the PAC championship game at least involved a future Big 12 team.  Given that the most feasible option for that is Utah (Colorado already lost to both Oregon and USC), I suspect most would settle for it not being a case where the best PAC teams aren't all going to B1G while the best XII teams go SEC.  That's just not a great narrative.  Which means we're rooting for Washington St or Oregon St to succeed.  Because if it's not one of those two, it's Utah or a future B1G team.  Luckily Wazzu is favored by 8
  • #10 USC @ #21 Notre Dame (5:30 PM, NBC) / #25 Miami @ #12 North Carolina (5:30 PM, ABC) - Hard to find solid rooting interests in this one, but ranked on ranked games and a paucity of other good options means one of these probably end up being the choice.  USC is favored by 3 and UNC by 3.5, so odds are one of these ends up being a good game.

Saturday Evening (6-8:30 Mountain)

Only 4 games in this timeslot this week, meaning the obvious choice is to watch #18 UCLA @ #15 Oregon St (6 PM, FOX). It's a ranked on ranked matchup, should be close (oregon St favored by 3.5) and has the added rooting interest of not wanting a B1G team to win the PAC.  Is it the best, most compelling matchup of the day?  No, but it's a good one and miles ahead of any other option available at this time

If you're looking for other options....well then there's not much I can do for you.  Best alternatives are:

  • NC State @ #17 Duke (6 PM, ACCN) - Duke is ranked, NC State is 4-2.  Duke is only favored by 3.5.  Honestly, this game isn't a bad one to watch, even if it's not super relevant.  Unfortunately, it's on the ACC Network so you probably won't get it.  That means if you want to watch something other than UCLA/Oregon St, you're probably stuck with....
  • Boise St @ Colorado St (7:45 PM, FS1, Boise favored by 7.5) - No really, just watch UCLA @ Oregon St.  This is a 3-3 Boise St team against a 2-3 Colorado St team. Unless you're really into figuring out which MWC teams will be bowl eligible, this isn't a game you want to watch.  It's only listed as the #3 option because it's better than figuring out which CUSA teams will be bowl eligible - which is what you'd be doing if you watched the other option: 2-4 UAB @ 2-3 UTSA (6 PM, ESPNU, UTSA favored by 9)
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Oct 11, 2023 at 4:04:40pm
Message modified by krindorr on Oct 14, 2023 at 12:05:40pm
krindorr
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