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Aug 27, 2024
12:09:34pm
krindorr Playmaker
What to watch in Week 1 (from the BYU perspective)

Already some great games in Week 0, now getting to Week 1 and the first game for most teams

Pre-Saturday Games

These serve as an appetizer and generally aren't the best options, but there is one P4 v P4 matchup involving a Big 12 team, which makes it the best game. TCU @ Stanford (Friday 8:30 PM, ESPN).  BYU doesn't play TCU this year, but it's still a good chance for a Big 12 team to look good against an ACC team.  And luckily TCU is favored by 9

Other options include

  • North Carolina @ Minnesota (Thursday 6 PM, FOX) isn't really related to BYU, but it's one of only two P4 v P4 matchups and has one of the closest lines, with UNCH favored by only 2
  • North Dakota St @ Colorado (Thursday 6 PM, ESPN) is another Big 12 team (albeit not one we play this season) and despite being an FCS opponent, this one might actually tell us something about Colorado.  Colorado has about the widest range of outcomes in FBS and NDSU is one of the best in FCS, so this could be a telling game.  Colorado is favored by 10
  • Southern Utah @ #12 Utah (Thursday 7 PM, ESPN+) almost certainly won't be a good game as Utah is expected to be very good and Southern Utah is a mediocre FCS team.  But Utah is a Big 12 team, a future opponent, and one the highest ranked teams playing before Saturday.  In a toss-up between this and UCF vs FCS, Utah gets the third spot, given preseason expectations/rank.

 

Saturday Morning (Up until Noon Mountain)

Week 1 has a lot of snoozers, and there's not many morning games...but at least a few high-profile matchups here.  From a BYU perspective, the best is #8 Penn St @ West Virginia (10 AM, FOX).  Continuing a theme, this is another Big 12 opponent that we won't play, but this is an opportunity  statement game for the Big 12 and also should be relatively close (Penn St favored by 8).

Top alternatives (with less BYU/XII relevance):

  • #14 Clemson @ #1 Georgia (10AM, ABC) has nothing to do with BYU, but will be the game everyone is watching and talking about that morning, and is the first ranked-vs-ranked matchup of the season.  Even with Clemson ranked, Georgia is favored by 13.5, highlighting the separation between the very best teams and the very good teams

  • UConn @ Maryland (10 AM, FS1): Is this a good matchup?  No, Maryland is favored by 20.5.  Is it an interesting or relevant matchup? Not really.  But the morning slate is pretty sparse and there's continuing noise about UConn to the Big 12, so it's a potential glance into the future

  • Virginia Tech @ Vanderbilt (10 AM, ESPN) is the only other P4 versus P4 matchup and has the smallest Vegas line (VT by 13) of any that haven't been mentioned yet.  Realistically, you're not watching this one, but hopefully one of the FCS opponents becomes interesting



Saturday Afternoon (Noon-3 Mountain)

Remember how the morning had a pretty weak slate, but at least two big games?  This one is worse.  There's one high-profile game with national interest but the best for BYU fans is likely South Dakota St @ #17 Oklahoma St (Noon, ESPN+).  It's an FCS game, but South Dakota St is one of the best FCS teams and Oklahoma St is only favored by 10.  Remember that Oklahoma St lost to South Alabama last year, so this is a ranked future opponent in a game that might tell us something about how good they are

Other options include

  • #19 Miami @ Florida (1:30 PM, ABC) pits two marquee names against one another. Miami is ranked, Florida is likely fighting for bowl eligibility... and neither directly affect BYU or the Big 12... but everything else is just terrible.  This one should at least be close (Miami favored by 2.5) and involve two teams you recognize
  • I can't in good consience recommend any other game.  If you want a presumed close game, your best bet is Miami (OH) @ Northwestern (1:30 PM, BTN) where Northwestern is favored by only 2.5.  Or, if you have enjoyed our histroy with Boise, you can go watch Boise St @ Georgia Soouthern (2 PM, ESPN U) where Boise is favored by 13.



Saturday Prime (3-5:59 Mountain)

Normally this slot will have a great game or two.... and among a LOT of cupcakes we still get one of those. #7 Notre Dame @ #20 Texas A&M (5:30 PM, ABC) is the big national game and should be close with Texas A&M favored by 3.  If any of the future opponents had better games, they would top this...but they really don't.

If you're looking for one of those alternatives with more Big 12 relevance:

  • UNLV @ Houston (5PM, ESPN+) - Houston is a late-season opponent but is predicted to be about the same quality as BYU, and is playing a more well-matched team (favored by only 1.5) so may tell us more than other future opponents
  • UT Martin @ #18 Kansas St (5PM, ESPN+) isn't a great matchup, but it's our first look at Kansas St, who is our first in-conference opponent this season and a favorite for the conference title.
  • Tarleton St @ Baylor (5 PM, ESPN+) involves a Big 12 team, even if they aren't a future opponent. Baylor has very much been up and down, so having a game with ANY line against an FCS opponent (even with Baylor favored by 26.5) is a scary sign

 

Saturday Evening (6-8:30 Mountain)

Speaking of games against FCS opponents where Vegas still provides a line, the clear top game of Week 1 is Southern Illinois @ BYU (6PM, ESPN+) with BYU favored by 14.5.  It's absolutely a game BYU should (and will) win...but we've seen that we can tell a lot from early performance against bad teams.  Is this going to be 2023 (14-0 against Sam Houston St that finished 3-9), or 2017 (20-6 against a 0-11 Portland St team)?  Or will it be 2020 (55-3 over Navy) or 2022 (50-21 over USF)?

Other games to keep an eye on:

  • Wyoming @ Arizona St (8:30 PM, FS1) - Two future BYU opponents and a well-matched game (Arizona St favored by 6.5)?  Not a lot more that you can ask for.  And most of the game will be after the end of the BYU game so this is a great chance to learn a lot in a game that should be decent  
  • New Mexico @ #21 Arizona (8:30 PM, ESPN) - Again, both teams are of interest.  Arizona is a future opponent and top Big 12 team. New Mexico has Bronco at coach.  Shouldn't be a great game (Arizona favored by 31!), but at least some interesting things to see
  • Houston Christian @ SMU (6 PM, ESPN+) is absolutely not a game you should watch.  There's no Vegas line and Houston Christian is terrible...but SMU is our next opponent and they looked pretty mediocre against Nevada, so this is a chance to see if they get it together a bit against a completley overmatched opponent
  • Georgia State @ Georgia Tech (6 PM, ACCN) could be an interesting one to see if Georgia Tech is for real or if Florida St was just a disappointment.

 

Post-Saturday

Oddly enough this week has two games after Saturday.  And both are pretty good.  #23 USC @ #13 LSU (Sunday 5:30 PM, ABC) is the third ranked-vs-ranked matchup of the week and one of the biggest ones.  Coming before the NFL season kicks off, I expect this one to get huge ratings.  It's a close matchup (LSU favored by 4.5) and the only Week 1 matchup between the SEC and B1G.

Then Monday brings Boston College @ #10 Florida St (Monday 5:30 PM, ESPN) which isn't as good, but is an interesting chance to see if Florida St can rebound from their shocking loss to Georgia Tech.

 

 

krindorr
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krindorr
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