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Nov 8, 2023
9:53:23am
krindorr Intervention Needed
What to watch in Week 11

So.  Last Week wasn't great.  But this week is probably our best chance to become bowl eligible.  And more than that it's a fantastic week of football.  There's 3 clear top games with ranked-on-ranked and CFP implications and they all take place in a different time window - none of which overlap with BYU.  So you can have a fantastic day of football before the BYU late game, and enjoy it without the risk of being in a down mood (or hopefully a great mood) from the BYU game.

Pre-Saturday Games

There's one P5 matchup... but it's terribly mismatched.  And one future P4 (SMU)... but it's also terrible.  Weirdly enough, the best pre-Saturday game is likely Wyoming @ UNLV (Friday 8:45 PM, FS1) as both traditionally terrible programs have actually been pretty good this year with some meaningful wins.  The game doesn't mean much in the grand scheme, but should be an enjoyable watch with UNLV favored by 5.5

Saturday Morning (Up until Noon Mountain)

At this point in the season, CFP implications drive interest and this one is a doozy with probably the best game of the day.  #3 Michigan @ #10 Penn St (10AM, FOX) is a great test.  Michigan has been absolutely dominant so far...but their best win is probably Rutgers.  Maybe Minnesota?  And Penn St has dominated every game...except a close loss to Ohio St, who is the committee's #1 team.  A Penn St win here would throw things into chaos and it's absolutely a possibility with Michigan favored by only 5

If you want a little more BYU/Big 12 relevancy, there's some alternatives:

  • Texas Tech @ #16 Kansas (10AM, FS1) has two teams that have played BYU, one win and one loss.  Kansas has exceeded expectations this year, Tech has fallen woefully short, but Kansas is only favored by 4 so it could turn into an interesting game.  Not that relevant to BYU, but Kansas is at least in the hunt for a conference title and it's nice to see Big 12 teams ranked

  • Arizona @ Colorado (Noon, PAC12): Neither of these teams are Big 12...but they both will be.  And it's an under the radar interesting game.  Colorado started out hot and was THE story of the early season.  Arizona is coming on hot and actuallyin the PAC12 mix. Arizona is favored by 10.5, but this is a chance to see Arizona coming when they're still largely under the radar.  Good things are happening in this program.

Saturday Afternoon (Noon-3 Mountain)

This is a tough call for BYU fans - the second of the 3 nationally relevant games is at this time...but so is a future opponent.  Given where the BYU season has gone, I'll lean toward the big picture and say the best game here is #18 Utah @ #5 Washington (1:30 PM, FOX).  Washington is looking for anothr big win to move up higher in the CFP.  Utah is good enough (and flawed enough) to give them that.  But Washington has also looked sloppy and mortal lately and Utah is rarely an easy out, so there's danger here.  Washington is favored by 9.5 so should be OK... but it's worth watching to see if they aren't.

Other options include

  • #15 Oklahoma St @ UCF (1:30 PM, ESPN) - Oklahoma St has looked really good lately after a terrible start to the season.  UCF has looked really really bad after an OK start to the season.  And yet, smart folks still seem uncertain on this one.  The Vegas line only has Oklahoma St by 3 and ESPN FPI actually predicts UCF as the outright winner.  Given that we'll end the season against Oklahoma St, this is a chance to see them against an opponent that is...bad?  maybe good by computer systems?  At least an intersting opponent
  • #13 Tennessee @ #14 Missouri (1:30 PM, CBS) isn't nationally relevant, and doesn't touch the Big 12... but its a good game between two ranked teams with a very close line (Vegas has Tennessee by 1)
  • Miami @ #4 Florida St: This one is basically the scaled back version of Utah/Washington.  CFP contender welcomes dangerous but flawed team to their city.  It doesn't rank quite as high since Miami isn't CFP ranked and because the line isn't as close (FSU by 14)

Saturday Prime (3-5:59 Mountain)

And here's the third (and possibly best) of those ranked-on-ranked CFP-relevant matchups, though we'll finally move off Fox.  #9 Ole Miss @ #2 Georgia (5PM, ESPN) has the largest Vegas spread with Georgia favored by 10.5, but Ole Miss is no pushover.  Their only loss has been to Alabama, so a win here would not only ruin Georgia's day but would put Ole Miss squarely into the CFP picture themselves.

If you're looking for an alternative with more Big 12 relevance:

  • West Virginia @ #17 Oklahoma (5PM, FOX) - The chance to watch our most-recent opponent against our next opponent.  Generally seems appealing, but I'd recommend avoiding it.  Watching this means thinking about last week's terrible performance and that's a good way to ruin a great day of football.  That's especially true if Oklahoma beats up on WVU, as is predicted (Oklahoma by 13 according to Vegas)
  • Instead, go watch Cincinnati @ Houston (5PM, FS1) to appreciate how hard the G5->P5 transition really is.  And it should be close (or at least better than Texas/TCU or Florida/LSU).  Houston is favored by only 2, so this gives Cincy the chance to get their inaugural Big 12 win.

Saturday Evening (6-8:30 Mountain)

7 Evening games, but two of them are great.  And the must-watch is clearly Iowa St @ BYU (8:15PM, ESPN) which has turned into a weirdly important game in BYU's drive for bowl eligibility.  Iowa St is favored by 7, so solid favorites, but it's also clearly the best chance for a BYU win and it's a late game at home so BYU magic seems probably.  It's also a kindness that we get an 8:15 kickoff instead of 8, so it's more likley that Ole Miss/Georgia will actually be done by this time.

Worthwhile alternatives are:

  • USC @ #6 Oregon (8:30 PM, FOX) - This is the game that's going to kill BYU's viewership...but it has the chance to be a great game.  Oregon is (in my opinion) the best team in the PAC and absolutely in the mix for a playoff spot.  USC is wounded and has been exposed...but their offense makes them a threat in any game (even if their defense means they can easily lose any game).  Oregon is favored by 15 and might stomp them..but it'll be an interesting one
  • Fresno St @ San Jose St (8:30 PM, CBSSN) - The obvious choice here is Duke @ #24 North Carolina and I can't blame anyone for choosing to watch that...but I want at least one good enjoyable game.  North Carolina is favored by 14.5, whereas Fresno is only favored by 1.  Given that they only have one loss (a 5 point defeat by Wyoming) there's even some hope that Fresno could jump into the Top 25.
krindorr
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krindorr
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krindorr Intervention Needed
11/8/23 9:53am

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