As someone who actually paid attention to recruiting in the 80's (it was all subscription newsletters back in the day) with hand written spreadsheets I can say, that is a pretty big change in expectations when any good LDS kid was assumed to at least be in the running as a recruit, and especially as a parent that has sent kids off to college, it is hard for me to not see why BYU wouldn't have a 50/50 shot at every kid that has a significant LDS influence in his family.
That BYU doesn't seem to even register as a blip on some of these kids radar, and BYUs recruiting radar should be a major concern for any fan, The "BYU experience" should be our one recruiting advantage, if that is gone or so insignificant as you imply, BYU is in big trouble long term in being able to compete at higher levels.