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Sep 16, 2023
9:20:18am
krindorr Truly Addicted User
What to watch today (from the BYU perspective) in a weak Week 3

So this will be my recommendations for best games to watch in each time slot.  This won't necessarily always be the top game since I'm looking at this as a BYU fan, meaning that BYU games, future BYU opponents, and conference play will get a slight bonus.  And in this week, just getting a decent game will be a challenge so we'll see what happens

Saturday Morning (Pre-Noon Mountain)

There's a lot of 10 AM Mountain games...but they're pretty much all terrible.  Either bad/irrelevant teams or huge spreads (which is a running htem for the rest of the day as well).  Not a bad idea to use this Saturday for those repairs and errands that have been building up.  I'd say the top choice is #15 Kansas St @ Missouri (10AM, SECN).  It has a ranked, Big 12 team against a P5 opponent and should be fairly close (with Kansas St favored by 3.5).  Thus far Kansas St has seemed like the strongest obstacle to a Texas/Oklahoma Big 12 championship game. This isn't a conference game so won't directly play into that, but a loss would reduce confidence that they are capable of beating the two blue bloods.

If you don't get the SEC Network, other options include:

  • Iowa St @ Ohio (10 AM, ESPNU) - Not a B1G clash of Iowa vs Ohio St... but 1-1 Iowa St vs 2-1 Ohio.  Not a great matchup and indicative of the weakness in the schedule this week.  But it IS the closest Vegas line for this time slot (Iowa St favored by only 2) and it's a chance to see a future BYU opponent
  • #14 LSU @ Mississippi St (10:00, ESPN) - This probably ends up getting more viewers than either of the above (ESPN vs SECN and ESPNU will do that), and is objectively the best game of the timeslot...just has no real relevance to BYU.  LSU came in as a top 10 team and a loss here would effectively eliminate them from the playoffs (no 2 loss team has EVER made the playoffs).  LSU is definitely the favorite (by 9 points), but it's not impossible that Mississippi St could pull the upset

Saturday Afternoon (Noon-3 Mountain)

The options don't get any better in the afternoon...and might actually be worse.  Georgia, Alabama, Ohio St, Oklahoma, Notre Dame are all big names on the docket...but each of them is favored by at least 27 points.  No Big 12 team is playing either, so this is likely going to be a channel-flipping day to find the one unexpectedly exciting game.  The best bet for that is Minnesota @ #20 North Carolina (1:30 PM Mountain, ESPN).  Both teams are undefeated, North Carolina is ranked and the game may be close - UNC is favored by only 7. Plus, it's always fun to see Drake Maye play

Other games of interest include

  • San Diego St @ Oregon St (1:30, FS1) - In past years, this might be close.  Oregon St is much better this season though ...and San Diego St seems worse.  They just lost 35-10 to UCLA, who (likely) isn't as good as Oregon St.  So this being the second best game to watch here says more about the lack of quality games.  Oregon St is favored by 24.5
  • #10 Alabama @ South Florida (1:30, ABC) - Among the pupu platter of games with ~30 point spreads, this is maybe the most interesting.  It's a 34 point spread and unlikely to be a good game...but Alabama has looked mortal so far, will be on the road, and will be breaking in a new QB so that's maybe worth watching.  Realistically in this timeslot, you're just channel surfing looking for the surprise game.  South Carolina @ #1 Georgia (1:30, CBS) is the P5 on P5 matchup and South Carolina has given Georgia trouble in the past, but the most likely case is a blowout with Georgia favored by 27.

Saturday Prime (3-5:30 Mountain)

The easiest call of every week (for a BYU fan) is to watch the BYU game - BYU @ Arkansas (5:30 PM Mountain, ESPN2). That said this one may be appealling to casual viewers as well.  Both teams are undefeated (albeit against weak competition) and the spread (Arkansas by 8) is one of the closer projected games for this week.  It should be noted that the kickoff time is a bit weird being somewhere between prime time and the late game, so it'll be important to consider other games in this timeslot until the bYU game starts.

These include:

  • Pitt @ West Virginia (5:30, ABC) - this one includes a rivalry, a Big 12 team, a chance to see a future opponent against a quality team and should even be a good game (West Virginia is favored by 2.5).  It might even be the second most noteworthy game (from the BYU perspective) of the entire week.  So of course it kicks off at the exact same time
  • #11 Tennessee @ Florida (5:00, ESPN) - Playing @Florida, Tennessee is favored by only 5.5 points.  We've all seen Florida shoot themselves (repeatedly) in the foot, but they also do have the talent to pull the upset, especially playing at home
  • #8 Washington @ Michigan St (3:00, Peacock) - If you're looking for an earlier game that won't overlap much if at all with the BYU game, this is probably the one to watch.  It's a top ten team, going on the road to a normally-talented P5 opponent.  Michigan St hasn't looked good this year and the line is Washington by 16.5....but it's an upset possibility.

Saturday Evening (6-8:30 Mountain)

This is generally the weakest time-slot and that holds true here. Unless you live in New Mexico and get really into the UNM/NMSU rivalry, the game you'll want is TCU @ Houston (6:00, FOX).  It's a Big 12 conference game and a chance to see what TCU really is (they lost to Colorado in Week 1 and then beat up an FCS team in Week 2)  With TCU favored by 7 it's also one of the closer games of the evening

  • Fresno St @ Arizona St (8:30, FS1) - Arizona St is a future conference mate (not until next season though).  Fresno is actually favored by 3, but it should be close.  You could do worse for a late-night game
  • Kansas @ Nevada (8:30, CBSSN) - Kansas is 2-0, Nevada is 0-2.  Kansas is favored by 28, and FPI gives them an 89.4% chance to win.  The likelihood of this being a good game is...not high.  But Kansas is our next opponent and whether we beat Arkansas or lose, there's no better way to move on than scouting the next team up.  This would probably be more useful if the opponent was better....but it could still be interesting
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Sep 16, 2023 at 9:20:18am
Message modified by krindorr on Sep 16, 2023 at 9:22:52am
krindorr
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krindorr
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