“Just” 48% against the spread? Cmon.

Sign up, and you can make all message times appear in your timezone. Sign up

Report problem with this ad

Jan 3, 2025
11:13:55am

TCuz Coastal Elite

“Just” 48% against the spread? Cmon.

If FPI (or any other prediction model) was some super genius against the spread then 1. It probably wouldn’t be publicly released and 2. If it was publicly released, we’d all be rich. You’d expect it to be right around 50%.

Go ahead and bet the opposite of FPI next year if this is some fool proof strategy or actual insight and let us know how that turns out. I’m sure you just defeated Vegas.

Report problem with this ad

TCuz

Previous username: TCuz13
Bio page: TCuz
Joined: Mar 1, 2014
Last login: Jan 6, 2025
Total posts: 64,645 (20,710 FO)

Report problem with this ad

Messages

Author

Time

Great work by Bamacoug in exposing ESPN's FPI rankings:

MHallDidNothingWr0ng

Jan 3, 9:55am

BYU and ASU are both suppressed by bad play in 2023 and low recruiting rankings.

Jan 3, 9:58am

Are you sure that's updated?

RobAdams

Jan 3, 10:00am

Yep... FPI updates nightly. BYU moved up 7 spots because of the Colorado win &

BamaCoug

Jan 3, 10:30am

FPI never valued BYU.

Adrielle

Jan 3, 10:32am

Thank you.

ParentingNotForSissy

Jan 3, 11:23am

If you want to truly expose the FPI, then what you do is take it and the other analytic rankings

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 10:00am

RE: If you want to truly expose the FPI, then what you do is take it and the

Jan 3, 10:01am

I don’t have the interest/energy in doing that.

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 10:02am

RE: I don’t have the interest/energy in doing that.

Accipiter

Jan 3, 1:00pm

And it’s still January and 8 months before the next game…

bjc

Jan 3, 4:51pm

A 9-4 Alabama who lost to Vanderbilt is at #4 in these rankings. What more do

MHallDidNothingWr0ng

Jan 3, 10:06am

If you think a single game or a single team completely invalidates a ratings system

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 10:12am

Colorado is still ranked above BYU despite getting absolutely manhandled in the

MHallDidNothingWr0ng

Jan 3, 10:17am

Ratings after 13-14 games this late into the season are based off a lot more than the outcome of a single game

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 10:20am

Like the stats and math you used last season to "prove" that Jay Hill was not an

MHallDidNothingWr0ng

Jan 3, 10:29am

I never made that argument. I did argue that BYU's defensive results in 2023 were poor

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 10:35am

I just think it's funny that you pick such weird hills to die on. Tuiaki, and

MHallDidNothingWr0ng

Jan 3, 10:39am

So why is Colorado ahead of BYU?

Beggar

Jan 3, 10:35am

You don’t need a replacement model to prove that a bad one is bad.

kcca

Jan 3, 2:44pm

Exactly. There are many games and teams that discredit their stupid metric.

Jan 3, 10:21am

Cherry picking games out on the fringes isn't how you debunk something

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 10:23am

There are too many outliers to take it seriously. Four ACC teams being ahead of

Jan 3, 1:06pm

And what does the empirical data say?

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 1:35pm

The empirical data says that there's lies, (danged) lies, and statistics. And

MHallDidNothingWr0ng

Jan 3, 1:46pm

The FPI (and other analytics) is based on actual, on the field results. So what is the best source of truth for this?

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 1:51pm

BYU beat every WAC team in 1985 except for UTEP

Belboz

Jan 3, 10:54am

RE: BYU beat every WAC team in 1985 except for UTEP

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 10:55am

Ok, so how does that explain Colorado being ahead of us this year?

Jan 3, 12:14pm

My point is that there should be more to a ranking than the outcome of 1 game

Belboz

Jan 3, 1:28pm

I agree with your overarching idea, but what about Colorado makes you think they

here's to hoping

Jan 3, 4:27pm

I don't think Colorado should be ranked higher than BYU. That wasn't my point

Belboz

Jan 4, 11:10am

I believe they have four losses, including one to Vanderbilt.

thirdgencoug

Jan 3, 1:40pm

What about losing to 7-5 Michigan and keeping the same position at 4?

Viking VI

Jan 3, 3:28pm

Thankfully it's not just a single game to invalidate the idea that Alabama is the 4th best team. We have 3 other losses

Spiff

Jan 3, 6:13pm

Plus, an accurate model would get more accurate as the season goes on. Would

Boring

Jan 3, 10:35am

Yeah, this was just more of a "Zoom out/look & FPI model doesn't value Big12...

BamaCoug

Jan 3, 10:51am

“Just” 48% against the spread? Cmon.

TCuz

Jan 3, 11:13am

KS needs to blow out teams if that is the case.

coolblue

Jan 3, 11:30am

Here’s a good website to compare ranking systems

canuckchuck

Jan 3, 12:09pm

This is cool, thanks. I would love to see it break down by conference. e.g. how

here's to hoping

Jan 3, 4:46pm

Woah. That seems like a lot of work

TNT

Jan 3, 2:23pm

See my link below for a website that does that

MyTwoCents

Jan 3, 6:12pm

Not sure at the end of the season we should be picking "best" team instead of

ABCoug

Jan 3, 8:40pm

I’m too dumb to understand everything, but is he suggesting that espn arbitrarily is keeping big XII teams lower?

shimmy

Jan 3, 10:02am

He needs a more persuasive argument than the one he used.

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 10:03am

Two things...

Adrielle

Jan 3, 10:13am

So it’s a bad system or their thumb is on the scale?

shimmy

Jan 3, 11:13am

The system is an algorithm. They created the algorithm.

here's to hoping

Jan 3, 4:50pm

My (very cynical) view of FPI is that it gives ESPN one more talking point...

dut99002

Jan 3, 10:10am

This makes the most sense to me. They don't try to be accurate. In fact,

RobAdams

Jan 3, 10:11am

And that's fine, but it's pretty clear that the committee uses the FPI as well, and if the computer system is flawed,

Adrielle

Jan 3, 10:18am

Yep... they have used it on air for years AS A RANKING (they post the national

BamaCoug

Jan 3, 10:54am

Exactly.

dut99002

Jan 3, 11:13am

Let us know when you link the great work he did.

TCuz

Jan 3, 10:13am

Let us know when you decide to become a decent poster instead of an unfunny

MHallDidNothingWr0ng

Jan 3, 10:19am

911, I’d like to report a dead body. Yes his name is TCuz.

shimmy

Jan 3, 11:13am

Talk about a poster that thinks he's funny but really isn't...

Jan 3, 12:01pm

We'll definitely get in the Big 12 now!

Jeffacka

Jan 3, 10:19am

One major issue is we are using a “predictive” model to assess actual results.

Boring

Jan 3, 10:27am

But the predictions are based on data from the past, so I'm not sure what your point is.

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 10:29am

As an actuary, I think you should be able to understand that not every source of

royal_blue

Jan 3, 12:26pm

I think if P&C actuaries used credit scores for setting car insurance rates....

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 12:32pm

It needs to be based on merit. Period. If teams are receiving a boost because of

royal_blue

Jan 3, 12:50pm

OK you go bet money against Vegas with your "fair" model and someone else can use the FPI (52.8% against the spread)

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 12:56pm

You can keep your FPI and use it to bet all you want, just keep it out of the

royal_blue

Jan 3, 2:28pm

So what should be used? Please provide the top 25 list and explain why

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 2:37pm

Hahahahaha. "Come up with 25 alternatives or I won't change my mind."

royal_blue

Jan 3, 3:24pm

How am I supposed to know if you have a valid point if you can't provide

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 3:31pm

Your standard of predictive accuracy and "beating Vegas" is every bit as

royal_blue

Jan 3, 3:56pm

Prior season data continues to be predictive through the end of the season

bythenumbers

Jan 3, 4:06pm

Ok so that being the case, I would assume that you would be in favor of the NFL

royal_blue

Jan 3, 4:18pm

The NFL doesn’t need this nonsense because it only has 32 teams, 17 games, equal home and home divisional play and

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 4:31pm

Well at least we agree that it's nonsense.

royal_blue

Jan 3, 4:40pm

Rankings and prior season results are derived from on-field performance

bythenumbers

Jan 3, 12:58pm

It's fair because every team starts at the same position ensuring an equal

royal_blue

Jan 3, 2:59pm

It's not racist to rank college football teams

bythenumbers

Jan 3, 3:19pm

It's not an analogy.

royal_blue

Jan 3, 3:28pm

You would prefer we draw names out of a hat?

bythenumbers

Jan 3, 3:35pm

Nice straw man.

royal_blue

Jan 3, 4:11pm

I get what you are saying, however completely uninformed doesn't make sense to

sah22

Jan 3, 6:44pm

Prior season results are extremely predictive

bythenumbers

Jan 3, 12:34pm

This is the problem with college football, it is turning into a pro league

Y'S CAT

Jan 3, 10:52am

It's a pro league already. Time to separate it from university control.

Les IsMore

Jan 3, 8:07pm

I think part of it is BYU purposely rarely blows teams out. We don’t try and run

rowlinthunder

Jan 3, 1:05pm

That’s most of it. People want to blame recruiting rankings, or past results, and all types of other stuff

TCuz

Jan 3, 1:12pm

If BYU wanted a better rating then don't wait until the last 10 seconds to beat 3-9 OSU and 5-7 Utah

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 1:32pm

Yup. All those weeks where people would post those charts where BYU won but it was expected that they lose

TCuz

Jan 3, 1:37pm

25?

ParentingNotForSissy

Jan 3, 1:39pm

Alabama got blown out by Oklahoma.

Jan 3, 1:56pm

Great job Jeff... keep up the good work!

Hill4Heisman

Jan 3, 2:16pm

A huge indictment. This needs to be shared …. as much as possible.

Jan 3, 2:57pm

ESPN is the new "fake news of sports"

VenomFarmer

Jan 3, 3:04pm

Problem with "predictive rankings" is that they largely ignore game results

Hill4Heisman

Jan 3, 3:21pm

If they ignore game results, then you should be able to show that the ratings at the end of the season

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 3:24pm

Love BamaCoug but he's completely wrong on this one

MyTwoCents

Jan 3, 5:59pm

I'll admit i don't really know how FPI works, but betting on a game and ranking

sah22

Jan 3, 6:47pm

If you can most accurately predict who wins games and by what score, then why would that not also be telling you who the

Indy Coug

Jan 3, 7:04pm

First, like I said, I don't know how FPI works. Does whoever have the lower FPI

sah22

Jan 3, 7:50pm

Just read post below after posting. Predicting a spread is better than just

sah22

Jan 3, 7:54pm

They were about 71% in predicting the winner of games

MyTwoCents

Jan 3, 8:23pm

From a ranking posted in a link above it looks like they were 9th, but top 10

sah22

Jan 3, 8:36pm

Not really a computer if subjective human inputs are large part of the equation

ABCoug

Jan 3, 8:52pm

Best potential vs best accomplishments?

ABCoug

Jan 3, 8:49pm

I think this is a good point. I think the weight of current performance should

sah22

Jan 3, 8:56pm

FPI gives the expected point spread against an average team on a neutral field

bythenumbers

Jan 3, 7:16pm

Interesting. Thanks for explaining.

sah22

Jan 3, 7:56pm

Thank you for the link.

ParentingNotForSissy

Jan 3, 7:25pm

It's possible to be fairly accurate overall and still have bias (intentional or

here's to hoping

Jan 4, 12:45am

Very interesting to see the top 5 Big12 teams bunched within 6 spots.

Brandoblueblood

Jan 3, 9:37pm

Recruiting rankings should not have any effect. That is a flawed and subjective exercise

Colorado

Jan 4, 4:25pm

I think this is likely the biggest problem. If the recruiting sites were more

here's to hoping

Jan 4, 5:36pm

Even if flawed, recruiting rankings could still be predictive

bythenumbers

Jan 4, 6:46pm

My guess is recruiting rankings help predict future performance

bythenumbers

Jan 4, 6:36pm

Predicting performance and rankings should be different IMO. I get the use of it

sah22

Jan 4, 8:00pm

The problem is the sample size is too small

bythenumbers

Jan 4, 8:41pm

"I'm not arguing the model should have the final word." This is exactly what I'm

sah22

Jan 4, 8:48pm

Then every ranking system is fundamentally flawed

bythenumbers

Jan 4, 9:12pm

Sounds like you are arguing that the model should have the final word.

sah22

Jan 5, 10:13am

Report problem with this ad

Posting on CougarBoard

In order to post, you will need to either sign up or log in.

Report problem with this ad