Strengths:
- Not quite elite (i.e. Zach), but very good, NFL caliber arm strength. "Can make all the throws" isn't just a phrase here - he can make the full spectrum of NFL throws and it's on video. From his week one 60 yard hip pocket dime to JoJo to his K State cover two hole shot to Chase - at his very best he can get the ball to difficult spots with velocity and accuracy that defeats quality coverage.
- Again not elite (i.e. Taysom), but legit run threat who is crafty in picking up extra yardage and runs with a toughness that has to be managed to not result in more injuries.
- Leadership - doesn't take plays off, doesn't give up on plays, shows moxie in clutch situations, his teammates obviously respect him.
Weaknesses:
- Makes too many bad decisions. All QBs sometimes make bad decisions, but Jake is still making too many of them. Both of his picks vs Colorado were bad, forced decisions. As is so often the case, his strengths (here arm strength and fearlessness in attempting difficult throws) turn to weaknesses when they lead him to force bad passes.
- Erratic accuracy. He shows the ability to throw lasers downfield on some throws, but it seems like one in five throws is just winged way off target. He makes enough throws on time and on target that he clearly has the ability to do so, he needs to weed out the egregious misses.
- Sidearm mechanics: Beck and others have emphasized that this is simply Jake's optimal arm slot, that it's locked in and not something to correct. But it comes with downside that Utah exploited with something like five passes tipped or deflected at the LoS. Has to become more efficient at picking his throwing lanes. As a few analysts have noted, this also has to be schemed in to the OL pass blocking technique.
Opportunity (here meaning 2025 upside):
- Has already demonstrated year to year capacity for improvement, has proven his willingness to work his butt off, and he's smart enough to take instruction. Another off season of voluntary workouts with Chase and the rest of the WR / TE rooms, training with John Beck, and mind-syncing with A Rod will very realistically result in one more jump in terms of accuracy, consistency and decision-making. It would not be at all unrealistic to think we'd see the kind of leap we saw from Taysom between 2013-2014 (he went from 59% accuracy to about 65% accuracy in the 4.5 games he played in 2014). Or what we saw from Jo Beck from 2004 to 2005 (fast-forwarding to Beck 2006 probably too much to hope for).
- The good news: he has the best possible training available to him, an ace co-pilot in Chase Roberts with an array of other talented pass catchers, a chip on his shoulder, a bucket loads of motivation.
- Best case: Hard work in the offseason pays measurable dividends, we see a 2025 Retzlaff with a 3/1 TD/INT ratio and a completion percentage in the low to mid 60% range - and a QB with better judgment (which he showed at times in 2024) at getting rid of the ball and better at checking down to easy completions rather than winging it downfield when there is less there.
Threats (here meaning risk / 2025 downside):
- "What if" the bad decision-making is an unfixable glitch in his programming and an off-season of hard work and careful Beck training won't cure it?
- "What if" the lack of consistent accuracy also can't be trained out?
- Worst case: Some improvement but not enough. Hovers around the 2/1 TD/INT ratio and doesn't quite crack the 60% completion threshhold. Has relapses at critical moments that ends up blowing a couple of winnable games.
My prediction: Will be closer to the best case described above. If he stays healthy - with a great set of WR, an experienced OL, and a returning stable of quality RBs, expect Jake to throw 25 or more TDs, single digit INTs, complete 60-63% of his passes, and lead BYU to another 10 win season. And to be in the conversation for post season honors (all Big XII etc).