Vegas uses some preseason data too. It’s because they all find that it makes their systems more accurate, not less

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Oct 14, 2024
2:11:25pm

TCuz Coastal Elite

Vegas uses some preseason data too. It’s because they all find that it makes their systems more accurate, not less

When using it for predictive value. Whether you think that should be used later by the committee is a different question I guess, but by November I suspect a large portion of it has baked out anyway.

Whether you agree with it or not, their mandate has been to pick the best teams, not the best resumes.

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TCuz

Previous username: TCuz13
Bio page: TCuz
Joined: Mar 1, 2014
Last login: Oct 14, 2024
Total posts: 62,188 (20,178 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

A lot of people say to not worry about the polls but I think

1:41pm

The reason? Pollsters like to confuse recruiting rankings with on-field performance.

Bob Vance

1:42pm

Of the teams ahead of BYU, how many would BYU be favored in? They may be off but I don't see much

Baron

1:43pm

i would take BYU over several of them. especially given the consistency of BYU and the inconsistency

FieroCoug

1:45pm

Specifically, who would you take BYU over? Bama? LSU? Penn State?

Baron

1:46pm

Penn state, miami, ND, ISU, and then based on several of other teams games i could see BYU beating tenn,

FieroCoug

1:49pm

So you think BYU is better than Miami, ND, ISU. Because it is not about

Baron

1:52pm

yes. miami isn’t good and i would take BYU over ND and ISU.

FieroCoug

2:15pm

You aren't seriously be using the vegas odds as a better metric, are you?

Brandoblueblood

1:46pm

Just tell me who you think we are better than that is front of us and based on what?

Baron

1:51pm

All but the two in front of us according to the Strength of Record. Howboutdat?

Brandoblueblood

1:58pm

Which two? So you have BYU better than Bama or Georgia or Texas. Curious which one.

Baron

1:58pm

That's not saying a whole lot since we beat the spread every game.

1:48pm

the big names make the money for everyone involved in the polls. the media, voters, conferences, etc.

FieroCoug

1:44pm

Because polling is about streaks.

mudpupper

1:46pm

Dumb

RGGeemer

1:49pm

BYU has a longer and better streak than most everybody in the top 10

FieroCoug

1:50pm

But we started lower so it doesn't count. It's so dumb.

RGGeemer

1:55pm

The post focuses too much on losses and not enough on wins. I do think we have a

Odysseus

1:50pm

I think early in the season pollsters are more willing to make massive

jwalk

1:50pm

Yep - polls are all about recency bias

MarylandFan

1:52pm

Early season polls can jump around quite a bit. The further we get into the

mudpupper

1:59pm

This is an AP poll problem, not a CFP committee problem.

TCuz

1:51pm

Like it or not the playoff committee also also shows bias

1:59pm

Vegas uses some preseason data too. It’s because they all find that it makes their systems more accurate, not less

TCuz

2:11pm

"The best team" is totally arbitrary then.

2:21pm

Of course. It’s subjective. The committee is king. But they usually end up agreeing with the old BCS simulation.

TCuz

2:24pm

With a 12 team playoff it mostly won't matter. This stuff can finally be

porl thompson

1:58pm

The Big 12 winner will be in for sure but everyone else is at the mercy

2:07pm

BYU is closer to #8 LSU than #14 T-A&M. Only 103 points separate 8 from 13.

Captain Stubing

2:00pm

An apologist's perspective: wins matter too

Doogal McCougar

2:03pm

Ok then we should be ranked 6th 😉

2:10pm

I would rank based on resume...and that puts BYU at #3

Doogal McCougar

3:08pm

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