Yep - polls are all about recency bias

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Oct 14, 2024
1:52:23pm

MarylandFan Intervention Needed

Yep - polls are all about recency bias

Which makes a loss in the 2nd half of the season more perilous than 1 or even 2 losses early in the season.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Oct 14, 2024 at 1:52:23pm

Message modified by MarylandFan on Oct 14, 2024 at 1:52:35pm

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MarylandFan

Previous username: CougarinMaryland
Bio page: MarylandFan
Joined: Sep 4, 2010
Last login: Oct 14, 2024
Total posts: 17,228 (275 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

A lot of people say to not worry about the polls but I think

BigHouse Coug

1:41pm

The reason? Pollsters like to confuse recruiting rankings with on-field performance.

Bob Vance

1:42pm

Of the teams ahead of BYU, how many would BYU be favored in? They may be off but I don't see much

Baron

1:43pm

i would take BYU over several of them. especially given the consistency of BYU and the inconsistency

FieroCoug

1:45pm

Specifically, who would you take BYU over? Bama? LSU? Penn State?

Baron

1:46pm

Penn state, miami, ND, ISU, and then based on several of other teams games i could see BYU beating tenn,

FieroCoug

1:49pm

So you think BYU is better than Miami, ND, ISU. Because it is not about

Baron

1:52pm

yes. miami isn’t good and i would take BYU over ND and ISU.

FieroCoug

2:15pm

You aren't seriously be using the vegas odds as a better metric, are you?

Brandoblueblood

1:46pm

Just tell me who you think we are better than that is front of us and based on what?

Baron

1:51pm

All but the two in front of us according to the Strength of Record. Howboutdat?

Brandoblueblood

1:58pm

Which two? So you have BYU better than Bama or Georgia or Texas. Curious which one.

Baron

1:58pm

That's not saying a whole lot since we beat the spread every game.

BigHouse Coug

1:48pm

the big names make the money for everyone involved in the polls. the media, voters, conferences, etc.

FieroCoug

1:44pm

Because polling is about streaks.

mudpupper

1:46pm

Dumb

RGGeemer

1:49pm

BYU has a longer and better streak than most everybody in the top 10

FieroCoug

1:50pm

But we started lower so it doesn't count. It's so dumb.

RGGeemer

1:55pm

The post focuses too much on losses and not enough on wins. I do think we have a

Odysseus

1:50pm

I think early in the season pollsters are more willing to make massive

jwalk

1:50pm

Yep - polls are all about recency bias

MarylandFan

1:52pm

Early season polls can jump around quite a bit. The further we get into the

mudpupper

1:59pm

This is an AP poll problem, not a CFP committee problem.

TCuz

1:51pm

Like it or not the playoff committee also also shows bias

BigHouse Coug

1:59pm

Vegas uses some preseason data too. It’s because they all find that it makes their systems more accurate, not less

TCuz

2:11pm

"The best team" is totally arbitrary then.

BigHouse Coug

2:21pm

Of course. It’s subjective. The committee is king. But they usually end up agreeing with the old BCS simulation.

TCuz

2:24pm

With a 12 team playoff it mostly won't matter. This stuff can finally be

porl thompson

1:58pm

The Big 12 winner will be in for sure but everyone else is at the mercy

BigHouse Coug

2:07pm

BYU is closer to #8 LSU than #14 T-A&M. Only 103 points separate 8 from 13.

Captain Stubing

2:00pm

An apologist's perspective: wins matter too

Doogal McCougar

2:03pm

Ok then we should be ranked 6th 😉

BigHouse Coug

2:10pm

I would rank based on resume...and that puts BYU at #3

Doogal McCougar

3:08pm

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