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Oct 25, 2024
2:55
:37
pm
TrueBlue67
Political Junky
I thought the Yew was going to come in and "own" the Big 12. What happened???
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TrueBlue67
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TrueBlue67
Joined
Jun 21, 2010
Last login
Oct 25, 2024
Total posts
11,466 (41 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
BYU's CCG probabilities. We DO NOT want ISU and KSU to win until their game
zuko
10:12am
Here are more results of how likely BYU is to get in based on others' records
zuko
10:14am
Nice work!
bythenumbers
2:43pm
Tldr Iowa State only losing to Kansas State is bad for BYU
BYUFootballisBack
10:27am
This is elite analysis- respect #
NYCougz
10:30am
Best thing about this is I don't see the Utes in any of these scenarios lol.
Reach
10:53am
I swear they had a less than 1% chance of getting to Pac12 championship in 2022
SoBlueitHurts
11:18am
They had 1 in 16 scenarios in the last week to put them in the CCG and all 4 gam
Greg4BYU
11:29am
I had turned that Oregon game off thinking it was over. So stupid.
bythenumbers
2:42pm
1/16, but some of those (specifically Or St winning) was not very high. Not that
SoBlueitHurts
3:26pm
BYU has a 58% chance of playing in the championship game, even with two losses?
Art Director
10:55am
Yes. This is because ISU and KSU are both unlikely to win out, and BYU matches
zuko
10:57am
You are clearly interpreting the tiebreaker scenario differently than CB earlier
BYUCLA
10:57am
I don't think the tiebreaker procedures are very ambiguous, but there is a
zuko
11:03am
Edited my above post to add more details. 2-way tiebreaker with ISU comes to:
BYUCLA
11:08am
But the other question is if K St counts as higher ranked because they'd
RGGeemer
2:03pm
I think the entire tie is broken by Conference SoS in that scenario and it would
cougarfan84
4:32pm
Not if our one loss is to ASU.
RGGeemer
5:00pm
After your edit, yes, that is the one debatable point in the tiebreakers. To me,
zuko
11:11am
Will be interesting to see. Here’s another discussion on that point:
BYUCLA
11:19am
It seems unintentional and I wouldn’t be surprised if they rule in BYU’s favor
BYUCLA
11:20am
When I do these next week, maybe I'll compare results depending on the two ways
zuko
12:01pm
Looking forward to your simulations. Great stuff!
BYUCLA
12:06pm
Also, are we for sure that KSU will have the highest SOS for the 3-way?
BYUCLA
11:22am
No, we are not for sure. But based on my simulations, KSU usually has the best.
zuko
11:26am
I don't think there is a 3 way tie breaker and then a 2 way tie breaker
NYC and Japan
2:26pm
Read the tiebreaker rules please before posting.
RGGeemer
2:31pm
Exactly. Where does it say there is a 3 way tie breaker that choses only 1 team
NYC and Japan
2:40pm
Please read the paragraph immediately below the title "Multiple Team Ties" and
RGGeemer
2:46pm
Utah Fans...So you're saying there's a chance.
Las Pampas
11:10am
No, Utah fans (still): "We gonna dominate this truckstop conf! You're welcome"
Brandoblueblood
1:25pm
If CO wins out, I don't see a scenario they don't make the CCG...but 1 may exist
Best Guess
11:17am
in my opinion, the most important other game is Cinci/CU. CU needs to lose.
Best Guess
11:19am
If BYU, CO, and one of ISU and KSU win out, CO doesn't make the CCG
zuko
11:23am
Yes, but if BYU doesn't win out that's the concern. An analysis of an undefeated
Best Guess
11:32am
Here are the probabilities in some scenarios for CO:
zuko
11:44am
If you have more scenarios you want simulated, let me know
zuko
11:47am
Are you able to see the actual needed results for CO winning out w/ BYU 1 loss
Best Guess
12:13pm
Here are about 20 examples of CO not making it, some of which may be duplicates:
zuko
12:49pm
Very interesting. I plugged a couple in and got the same results as you.
Best Guess
1:24pm
I saw 3 scenarios where the CCG is BYU v KState and CO won out:
zuko
1:36pm
Interesting. All 2 loss Iowa State. I'm surprised CO winning out is only 1.5%.
Best Guess
1:57pm
RE: Interesting. All 2 loss Iowa State. I'm surprised CO winning out is only
zuko
2:12pm
How is that possible? 2 loss ISU gives byu a much better chance at not having to
RGGeemer
2:15pm
Actually BYU is more likely to be tied with ISU if they have 10 wins, because
zuko
2:22pm
I see. That makes sense. I'm hoping we get to 11+ wins. 10-2 and lucking into
RGGeemer
2:25pm
Fantastic data. Thanks for running these! Looking forward to next week's.
Best Guess
2:18pm
And here is a table of the final win count probabilities for each team:
zuko
1:58pm
Wait…where are the Ute Kings of the truck stop conference?
Honor Code
11:49am
Do you have a git repo we can investigate??
Sircumference
12:01pm
Have at it. Let me know if you find anything to improve
zuko
1:30pm
None of this matters if we don't beat UCF. They should have our full attention.
rbr
12:33pm
They should have the team’s full attention. Fans can talk about this w/o problem
Metallicat
12:39pm
Aksually, this matter more if we lose to UCF. If we win out, none of this matter
Best Guess
12:47pm
Yep
RGGeemer
2:04pm
Cincinnati vs BYU... "So you're saying that there's a chance!"
VenomFarmer
1:15pm
Utah be like ... "So you're saying there's a chance?"
calbearcoug
1:41pm
So there is almost a 58% chance a team from Utah is in the CCG.
Blusox
2:26pm
i don't think K-State loses before then. Only road game is at Houston. And even
Lifer
2:43pm
I thought the Yew was going to come in and "own" the Big 12. What happened???
TrueBlue67
2:55pm
Does this mean I have to hope for Utah to WIN against K-State?.... shuddering...
CornfedCougar
2:57pm
👎
RGGeemer
3:03pm
Utah and KState could only meet in the CCG or the playoffs, so definitely NO!
zuko
3:09pm
Whoops! I meant Iowa State.
CornfedCougar
4:11pm
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