I guess my internal odds of CO winning out are higher than the computers.  That's why I see COvCinci this weekend as a HUGE game needing CU to lose. 

Tell me if you're seeing different than what I've gleaned from my manual way and your system generated (assuming 1 loss BYU):

1. Iowa State winning out or having 2 losses is our best option.  A 1 loss ISU muddies the waters too much and gives a decent probability that BYU doesn't make the CCG. Probably most important, winning out gives KState a 2nd loss, which is the next most likely CCG participant. 
2. A BYU loss to ASU is the least harmful to BYU's chances of making it to the CCG as a 1 loss team.  
3. A KState/BYU CCG almost exclusively happens is ISU has 2 losses.
4. Guessing on this one, but would love to see data: a 1 loss BYU, KSU, and ISU heavily leans to a KSU/ISU CCG.  

Are you able to produce the 'Probability of Each team making the CCG Given Total Wins' table with the odds of each team having 12, 11, 10, etc number of wins?