If BYU, CO, and one of ISU and KSU win out, CO doesn't make the CCG

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Oct 25, 2024
11:23:40am

zuko All-American

If BYU, CO, and one of ISU and KSU win out, CO doesn't make the CCG

And that table shows each team's probability of making the CCG given the total number of wins they have in the season, but my CCG seeding algorithm definitely first ranks teams based on in-conference record. Total wins only affects CCG seeding if it gets down to tiebreaker e in the B12 tiebreakers.

Big 12 Football Tiebreakers - 2024 Season (PDF) - Big 12 Conference

https://big12sports.com/documents/2024/9/5/Big_12_Football_2024_Tiebreaker_Policy.pdf

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zuko

Previous username: ThetaSigma
Bio page: zuko
Joined: Aug 4, 2015
Last login: Oct 25, 2024
Total posts: 3,266 (13 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

BYU's CCG probabilities. We DO NOT want ISU and KSU to win until their game

zuko

10:12am

Here are more results of how likely BYU is to get in based on others' records

zuko

10:14am

Tldr Iowa State only losing to Kansas State is bad for BYU

BYUFootballisBack

10:27am

This is elite analysis- respect #

NYCougz

10:30am

Best thing about this is I don't see the Utes in any of these scenarios lol.

Reach

10:53am

I swear they had a less than 1% chance of getting to Pac12 championship in 2022

SoBlueitHurts

11:18am

They had 1 in 16 scenarios in the last week to put them in the CCG and all 4 gam

Greg4BYU

11:29am

BYU has a 58% chance of playing in the championship game, even with two losses?

10:55am

Yes. This is because ISU and KSU are both unlikely to win out, and BYU matches

zuko

10:57am

You are clearly interpreting the tiebreaker scenario differently than CB earlier

BYUCLA

10:57am

I don't think the tiebreaker procedures are very ambiguous, but there is a

zuko

11:03am

Edited my above post to add more details. 2-way tiebreaker with ISU comes to:

BYUCLA

11:08am

After your edit, yes, that is the one debatable point in the tiebreakers. To me,

zuko

11:11am

Will be interesting to see. Here’s another discussion on that point:

BYUCLA

11:19am

It seems unintentional and I wouldn’t be surprised if they rule in BYU’s favor

BYUCLA

11:20am

When I do these next week, maybe I'll compare results depending on the two ways

zuko

12:01pm

Looking forward to your simulations. Great stuff!

BYUCLA

12:06pm

Also, are we for sure that KSU will have the highest SOS for the 3-way?

BYUCLA

11:22am

No, we are not for sure. But based on my simulations, KSU usually has the best.

zuko

11:26am

Utah Fans...So you're saying there's a chance.

Las Pampas

11:10am

No, Utah fans (still): "We gonna dominate this truckstop conf! You're welcome"

Brandoblueblood

1:25pm

If CO wins out, I don't see a scenario they don't make the CCG...but 1 may exist

Best Guess

11:17am

in my opinion, the most important other game is Cinci/CU. CU needs to lose.

Best Guess

11:19am

If BYU, CO, and one of ISU and KSU win out, CO doesn't make the CCG

zuko

11:23am

Yes, but if BYU doesn't win out that's the concern. An analysis of an undefeated

Best Guess

11:32am

Here are the probabilities in some scenarios for CO:

zuko

11:44am

If you have more scenarios you want simulated, let me know

zuko

11:47am

Are you able to see the actual needed results for CO winning out w/ BYU 1 loss

Best Guess

12:13pm

Here are about 20 examples of CO not making it, some of which may be duplicates:

zuko

12:49pm

Very interesting. I plugged a couple in and got the same results as you.

Best Guess

1:24pm

Wait…where are the Ute Kings of the truck stop conference?

Honor Code

11:49am

Do you have a git repo we can investigate??

Sircumference

12:01pm

None of this matters if we don't beat UCF. They should have our full attention.

rbr

12:33pm

They should have the team’s full attention. Fans can talk about this w/o problem

Metallicat

12:39pm

Aksually, this matter more if we lose to UCF. If we win out, none of this matter

Best Guess

12:47pm

Cincinnati vs BYU... "So you're saying that there's a chance!"

VenomFarmer

1:15pm

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