I had turned that Oregon game off thinking it was over. So stupid.

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Oct 25, 2024
2:42:39pm

bythenumbers All-American

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bythenumbers

Bio page: bythenumbers
Joined: Mar 16, 2020
Last login: Oct 25, 2024
Total posts: 2,201 (2 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

BYU's CCG probabilities. We DO NOT want ISU and KSU to win until their game

zuko

10:12am

Here are more results of how likely BYU is to get in based on others' records

zuko

10:14am

Nice work!

bythenumbers

2:43pm

Tldr Iowa State only losing to Kansas State is bad for BYU

BYUFootballisBack

10:27am

This is elite analysis- respect #

NYCougz

10:30am

Best thing about this is I don't see the Utes in any of these scenarios lol.

Reach

10:53am

I swear they had a less than 1% chance of getting to Pac12 championship in 2022

SoBlueitHurts

11:18am

They had 1 in 16 scenarios in the last week to put them in the CCG and all 4 gam

Greg4BYU

11:29am

I had turned that Oregon game off thinking it was over. So stupid.

bythenumbers

2:42pm

1/16, but some of those (specifically Or St winning) was not very high. Not that

SoBlueitHurts

3:26pm

BYU has a 58% chance of playing in the championship game, even with two losses?

Art Director

10:55am

Yes. This is because ISU and KSU are both unlikely to win out, and BYU matches

zuko

10:57am

You are clearly interpreting the tiebreaker scenario differently than CB earlier

BYUCLA

10:57am

I don't think the tiebreaker procedures are very ambiguous, but there is a

zuko

11:03am

Edited my above post to add more details. 2-way tiebreaker with ISU comes to:

BYUCLA

11:08am

But the other question is if K St counts as higher ranked because they'd

RGGeemer

2:03pm

I think the entire tie is broken by Conference SoS in that scenario and it would

cougarfan84

4:32pm

Not if our one loss is to ASU.

RGGeemer

5:00pm

After your edit, yes, that is the one debatable point in the tiebreakers. To me,

zuko

11:11am

Will be interesting to see. Here’s another discussion on that point:

BYUCLA

11:19am

It seems unintentional and I wouldn’t be surprised if they rule in BYU’s favor

BYUCLA

11:20am

When I do these next week, maybe I'll compare results depending on the two ways

zuko

12:01pm

Looking forward to your simulations. Great stuff!

BYUCLA

12:06pm

Also, are we for sure that KSU will have the highest SOS for the 3-way?

BYUCLA

11:22am

No, we are not for sure. But based on my simulations, KSU usually has the best.

zuko

11:26am

I don't think there is a 3 way tie breaker and then a 2 way tie breaker

NYC and Japan

2:26pm

Read the tiebreaker rules please before posting.

RGGeemer

2:31pm

Exactly. Where does it say there is a 3 way tie breaker that choses only 1 team

NYC and Japan

2:40pm

Please read the paragraph immediately below the title "Multiple Team Ties" and

RGGeemer

2:46pm

Utah Fans...So you're saying there's a chance.

Las Pampas

11:10am

No, Utah fans (still): "We gonna dominate this truckstop conf! You're welcome"

Brandoblueblood

1:25pm

If CO wins out, I don't see a scenario they don't make the CCG...but 1 may exist

Best Guess

11:17am

in my opinion, the most important other game is Cinci/CU. CU needs to lose.

Best Guess

11:19am

If BYU, CO, and one of ISU and KSU win out, CO doesn't make the CCG

zuko

11:23am

Yes, but if BYU doesn't win out that's the concern. An analysis of an undefeated

Best Guess

11:32am

Here are the probabilities in some scenarios for CO:

zuko

11:44am

If you have more scenarios you want simulated, let me know

zuko

11:47am

Are you able to see the actual needed results for CO winning out w/ BYU 1 loss

Best Guess

12:13pm

Here are about 20 examples of CO not making it, some of which may be duplicates:

zuko

12:49pm

Very interesting. I plugged a couple in and got the same results as you.

Best Guess

1:24pm

I saw 3 scenarios where the CCG is BYU v KState and CO won out:

zuko

1:36pm

Interesting. All 2 loss Iowa State. I'm surprised CO winning out is only 1.5%.

Best Guess

1:57pm

RE: Interesting. All 2 loss Iowa State. I'm surprised CO winning out is only

zuko

2:12pm

How is that possible? 2 loss ISU gives byu a much better chance at not having to

RGGeemer

2:15pm

Actually BYU is more likely to be tied with ISU if they have 10 wins, because

zuko

2:22pm

I see. That makes sense. I'm hoping we get to 11+ wins. 10-2 and lucking into

RGGeemer

2:25pm

Fantastic data. Thanks for running these! Looking forward to next week's.

Best Guess

2:18pm

And here is a table of the final win count probabilities for each team:

zuko

1:58pm

Wait…where are the Ute Kings of the truck stop conference?

Honor Code

11:49am

Do you have a git repo we can investigate??

Sircumference

12:01pm

Have at it. Let me know if you find anything to improve

zuko

1:30pm

None of this matters if we don't beat UCF. They should have our full attention.

rbr

12:33pm

They should have the team’s full attention. Fans can talk about this w/o problem

Metallicat

12:39pm

Aksually, this matter more if we lose to UCF. If we win out, none of this matter

Best Guess

12:47pm

Yep

RGGeemer

2:04pm

Cincinnati vs BYU... "So you're saying that there's a chance!"

VenomFarmer

1:15pm

Utah be like ... "So you're saying there's a chance?"

calbearcoug

1:41pm

So there is almost a 58% chance a team from Utah is in the CCG.

Blusox

2:26pm

i don't think K-State loses before then. Only road game is at Houston. And even

Lifer

2:43pm

I thought the Yew was going to come in and "own" the Big 12. What happened???

TrueBlue67

2:55pm

Does this mean I have to hope for Utah to WIN against K-State?.... shuddering...

CornfedCougar

2:57pm

👎

RGGeemer

3:03pm

Utah and KState could only meet in the CCG or the playoffs, so definitely NO!

zuko

3:09pm

Whoops! I meant Iowa State.

CornfedCougar

4:11pm

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