and BYU still making it to the CCG?

Do those scenarios also have a second loss for KState and 2 or 0 losses for Iowa St? I'm struggling manually creating BYU getting to the CCG with an undefeated CO and 1 loss BYU (unless that loss is to ASU) - at least in any scenario I find likely with Iowa State and KState not falling apart (much less a 76% chance as you show).

With a 1 loss BYU: By my manual method (which I totally understand has human flaw elements to it), I'm seeing an undefeated Iowa St helps us the most. Next, is a loss to ASU. Outside those 2 scenarios, I've struggled to find BYU going to the CCG, which you have as 76% with 1 loss BYU, no more CU losses.

I think for baseline, I'd want to know your tie-breaker scenarios - if they're the same as the link I provided above. Your odds just don't look plausible based on what I've done manually, but that doesn't mean I'm correct.