Folks here are some numbers to help you decide for yourself if being Independent pays when it comes to Bowl $$$$.

$   750,000 Poinsettia
$1,000,000 Pioneer PureVision Las Vegas
$   750,000 New Mexico
$   600,000 Bell Helicopter Armed Forces
$1,100,000 PetroSun Independence
$4,200,000 Total

Typically a conference takes an equal split so the current MWC of 9 teams divides their money by 10 (one for each team and one to the MWC office - NOTE: all these numbers would have shrunk if the MWC added teams but not bowls) so in regular years the MWC only bowl payouts we get $420,000. Note: this year the MWC did not have enough teams to send someone to the AF bowl so that money would not be considered - somewhat minor when considering that there were not enough qualifiers because TCU went to a BCS game which means more money (keep reading).

If you read the SI article by Dan Wetzel about a playoff (he wrote Death to the BCS) it identifies that these cuts are before teams pay for their travel, etc so the split is on the Gross and not after expenses...so your forced allotment of tickets, band, etc come out of that money. Apparently teams staying home got the same amount and didn't have to spend anything.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1177192/1/index.htm

Now consider the years a team from our conference goes to the BCS. Last year was the largest non-BCS payouts [ever] (Edited: as pointed out by another poster this should be replaced with - [since the non-BCS revenue sharing came into existence after the 2004 BCS appearance]) because 1 team went as an AQ and one team went as an at large. A total of $24 M was paid out to the 5 non-BCS conferences and was split as follows:

$9.8 million Mountain West (TCU was the non-BCS AQ)
$7.8 million Western Athletic (BSU was the non-BCS At Large)
$2.8 million Conference USA
$2.1 million Mid-American
$1.5 million Sun Belt

So divide that $9.8 M by 10 = $980K

So last year the take for BYU would have been 420 + 980 = $1.4 M. This is the largest it would ever have been in the MWC for BYU...In years where no team from the MWC goes to the BCS the conference would get approximately $3.8 M from the non-BCS leagues split (based on performance) which is $380 K split 10 ways so 420 + 380 = $800 K in down years.

In years where two teams from non-BCS conferences make BCS games we can be as high as $1.4 M. (High)
In years where no teams from non-BCS conferences make BCS games we can be as low as $800 K. (Low)

Now consider

2012 Poinsetta $750 K
2013 Kraft Hunger $850 K

Shared with no one. In my opinion those are not bad backups/guarantees for our first few years of independence and we can still be shuffled (have financial considerations paid to our contracted bowl) with the help of ESPN to put us in a better bowl if our record/match-ability is more desirable.

Here are a list of all other non-BCS bowls and their payouts. Anything from Meineke up would pay us more than the best years in the MWC. Everything from the Texas bowl down would be a noticeable drop off from the down MWC years.

$4,250,000 Capital One Bowl (Orlando, Florida)
$3,300,000 Outback Bowl (Tampa, Florida)
$3,005,000 Chick-fil-A Bowl (Atlanta, Georgia)
$3,000,000 Cotton Bowl Classic (Arlington, Texas)
$2,500,000 Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, Florida)
$2,350,000 Insight Bowl (Tempe, Arizona)
$2,250,000 Champs Sports Bowl (Orlando, Florida)
$2,250,000 Alamo Bowl (San Antonio, Texas)
$2,050,000 Holiday Bowl (San Diego, California)
$2,000,000 Pinstripe Bowl (The Bronx,New York)
$1,900,000 Sun Bowl (El Paso, Texas)
$1,700,000 Liberty Bowl (Memphis, Tennessee)
$1,600,000 Music City Bowl (Nashville, Tennessee)
$1,600,000 Meineke Car Care Bowl (Charlotte, North Carolina)
$1,200,000 TicketCity Bowl (Dallas, Texas)
$1,100,000 Independence Bowl (Shreveport, Louisiana)
$1,000,000 Maaco Bowl Las Vegas (Las Vegas, Nevada)
$1,000,000 Military Bowl (Washington, D.C.)
$1,000,000 Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg (St. Petersburg, Florida)
$850,000 Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (San Francisco, California)
$750,000 Little Caesars Pizza Bowl (Detroit, Michigan)
$750,000 Humanitarian Bowl (Boise, Idaho)
$750,000 GoDaddy.com Bowl (Mobile, Alabama)
$750,000 Poinsettia Bowl (San Diego, California)
$750,000 New Mexico Bowl (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
$700,000 Texas Bowl (Houston, Texas)
$600,000 Armed Forces Bowl (University Park, Texas)
$398,000 Hawaii Bowl (Honolulu, Hawaii)
$325,000 New Orleans Bowl (New Orleans, Louisiana)
$300,000 BBVA Compass Bowl (Birmingham, Alabama)

Many on this board site distant travel as being a negative for the bowl so keeping it in an acceptable foot print you may be limited to the following: Cotton, Insight, Alamo, Holiday, Sun, TicketCity, Las Vegas, Kraft, Humanitarian, Poinsetta, NM. The 3 in Texas may be pushing the perimeter of unsatisfactory to some of the fans posting on CB (Cotton, Alamo, TicketCity).

What do you know BYU has signed contracts with 2 of those listed within the first 3 years of independence - not bad - may not be the best...we certainly could do worse, we could have zero contracts or we could have contracts with far away bowls that pay less than $400K (Hawaii, NO, BBVA Compass). And guess what we're also going bowling in fertile recruiting grounds that we are currently only scheduled to visit once (SJSU 2012) in the next 3 years. Perhaps a good trade off after all.

Bottom line these contracts are nice place holders in our early independence that come with some guarantees of being in a bowl (even if we barely qualify) and receiving comparable payouts to what we might receive in the MWC. If we have a BCS or highly ranked year I can assure you ESPN will help make something else happen to improve our bowl options in those years (like BSU/TCU in the Poinsetta bowl 2 years ago).

SOME OTHER NOTES:

Many bowls just signed new contracts in the last year extending them through 2013 so getting any contracts right now even with lesser bowls is an achievement.

BCS also distributes the following guarantees each year as well.

$1.8 million FCS conferences
$1.3 million Notre Dame (if ND goes to a BCS game their cut is $4.5 M)
$100,000 Army
$100,000 Navy

ND gets $1.3 M even this year in addition to what ever "other" money they get from bowl games. So this year going to the Sun Bowl they get that money $1.9 + $1.3 = $3.2 M for a down year. Not bad.

The $4.5 M Notre Dame gets for going to a BCS bowl would be the same for BYU. Only conferences get the larger payouts of $17-18 M.

Also note that Army/Navy get $100 K - if BYU can get this exception as well added to the $750-850 K that the Kraft/Poinsetta pays that also could make a difference.

I pulled stats from these sites to help create this post:
http://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/article/64647
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_college_bowl_games