What can I say, these are ESPN numbers and percentages... Can't tell you exactly why they ended up at 89%

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Nov 18, 2024
2:17:19pm

krindorr Truly Addicted User

What can I say, these are ESPN numbers and percentages... Can't tell you exactly why they ended up at 89%

But considering the likelihood of those scenarios playing out (WLW or LWW) and the ~10% chance we miss in that scenario, you're currently quibbling over something that they see coming into play 1.1% of the time.

You can agree or disagree - these aren't my numbers and so I'm not going to defend them. I'm just summarizing what ESPN sees/predicts

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Nov 18, 2024 at 2:17:19pm

Message modified by krindorr on Nov 18, 2024 at 2:18:19pm

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krindorr

Bio page: krindorr
Joined: Oct 5, 2020
Last login: Nov 18, 2024
Total posts: 19,473 (119 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

BYU Playoff Possibilities (per ESPN) in various scenarios

krindorr Truly Addicted User

2:06pm

Only 88-89% chance of playoff at 11-2 conference champ? Seems like 99% to me.

RGGeemer

2:08pm

In almost certainly related news, FPI gives Army a 12% chance against Notre Dame

krindorr

2:10pm

I still think we would be in the top 12 at 11-2. No?

RGGeemer

2:10pm

88-89% chance of being in the top 12

nephicoug

2:11pm

So 88% chance in the top 12 and 88% chance that Army loses to ND. So 99% we are

RGGeemer

2:12pm

What can I say, these are ESPN numbers and percentages... Can't tell you exactly why they ended up at 89%

krindorr

2:17pm

It would come down to us versus a bunch of 10-2 SEC teams and 10-2 Notre Dame

krindorr

2:13pm

I think those 11-12% odds come down to Army being an undefeated conference champ

nephicoug

2:10pm

Wouldn't we still be in the top 12 at 11-2 with 2 big Ws to end the year?

RGGeemer

2:11pm

Assuming our second loss would be to ASU, it would only be 1 big W

nephicoug

2:11pm

Our odds are only 1% lower when our loss is to ASU (88%) vs Houston (89%).

RGGeemer

2:13pm

Because we'd have a better win (vs ASU) in the Houston loss scenario

nephicoug

2:14pm

I know. But only 1% difference. Only 89% chance in the ASU W scenario seems

RGGeemer

2:18pm

One of those big wins being Houston? And yeah, I do think we'd get it, but this is ESPN numbers, not mine

krindorr

2:12pm

No, ASU and CU

RGGeemer

2:14pm

FWIW, ESPN gives Army a 89% chance if they finish 13-0, but also give Tulane a 29% shot if they win out

krindorr

2:25pm

They give us about a 45 % chance of winning then Saturday

cougaman

2:09pm

If you woulda told me at the beginning of the year BYU

cougar95

2:11pm

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