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Nov 18, 2024
2:08
:36
pm
RGGeemer
Intervention Needed
Only 88-89% chance of playoff at 11-2 conference champ? Seems like 99% to me.
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RGGeemer
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rggee
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RGGeemer
Joined
Aug 18, 2010
Last login
Nov 18, 2024
Total posts
72,005 (758 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
BYU Playoff Possibilities (per ESPN) in various scenarios
krindorr
Truly Addicted User
2:06pm
Only 88-89% chance of playoff at 11-2 conference champ? Seems like 99% to me.
RGGeemer
2:08pm
In almost certainly related news, FPI gives Army a 12% chance against Notre Dame
krindorr
2:10pm
I still think we would be in the top 12 at 11-2. No?
RGGeemer
2:10pm
88-89% chance of being in the top 12
nephicoug
2:11pm
So 88% chance in the top 12 and 88% chance that Army loses to ND. So 99% we are
RGGeemer
2:12pm
What can I say, these are ESPN numbers and percentages... Can't tell you exactly why they ended up at 89%
krindorr
2:17pm
It would come down to us versus a bunch of 10-2 SEC teams and 10-2 Notre Dame
krindorr
2:13pm
I think those 11-12% odds come down to Army being an undefeated conference champ
nephicoug
2:10pm
Wouldn't we still be in the top 12 at 11-2 with 2 big Ws to end the year?
RGGeemer
2:11pm
Assuming our second loss would be to ASU, it would only be 1 big W
nephicoug
2:11pm
Our odds are only 1% lower when our loss is to ASU (88%) vs Houston (89%).
RGGeemer
2:13pm
Because we'd have a better win (vs ASU) in the Houston loss scenario
nephicoug
2:14pm
I know. But only 1% difference. Only 89% chance in the ASU W scenario seems
RGGeemer
2:18pm
One of those big wins being Houston? And yeah, I do think we'd get it, but this is ESPN numbers, not mine
krindorr
2:12pm
No, ASU and CU
RGGeemer
2:14pm
FWIW, ESPN gives Army a 89% chance if they finish 13-0, but also give Tulane a 29% shot if they win out
krindorr
2:25pm
They give us about a 45 % chance of winning then Saturday
cougaman
2:09pm
If you woulda told me at the beginning of the year BYU
cougar95
2:11pm
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