Jay Hill isn't messing around.

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Oct 17, 2024
2:08:49pm

Abe Froman Truly Addicted User

Jay Hill isn't messing around.

From one of my stats interns, @MattingleyTyler:

BYU opponents have had more drives end in a turnover than touchdown or field goal (18% TO; 14% TD, 14% FG).

Including turnovers on downs, BYU opponents turn the ball over on 35% of possessions--more than any other drive outcome,… pic.twitter.com/FR5ByoTV5o
— Greg Wrubell (@gregwrubell) October 17, 2024

https://twitter.com/gregwrubell/status/1846988958124986605

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Abe Froman

Previous username: Rise and Shout
Bio page: Abe Froman
Joined: Nov 19, 2006
Last login: Dec 23, 2024
Total posts: 90,904 (8,111 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Jay Hill isn't messing around.

Abe Froman

Oct 17, 2:08pm

Sheesh, even more than punts?

SV72 Sale

Oct 17, 2:11pm

Every time there's been talk about this not being sustainable and every week

BackPacker

Oct 17, 2:13pm

No, but I think it will be more about how teams game plan against us

whoneedscorners?

Oct 17, 2:16pm

Why “No?” The available evidence suggests otherwise.

xgbs

Oct 17, 5:19pm

Did you even read what I wrote at all?

whoneedscorners?

Oct 17, 7:23pm

Has there ever been a team in history at any level that had the opponent turn

boctabulous

Oct 17, 7:43pm

As if anyone could ever know that Napolian

Oct 17, 7:56pm

Do you have an opinion/guess though? I dont think its ever happened. If it has

boctabulous

Oct 18, 9:20am

Especially considering that BYU has had a pretty high strength of schedule.

crack

Oct 17, 2:17pm

Idk Utah and KW seemed to sustain it for quite a few years

Polecat

Oct 17, 2:17pm

But not every game for any season.

boctabulous

Oct 17, 7:40pm

Well. They did for one season at least. Back in the MWC tho.

Polecat

Oct 17, 7:42pm

I think you are wrong.

boctabulous

Oct 17, 7:44pm

I don't know but a defensive foundation is far more sustainable than offensive

bythenumbers

Oct 17, 2:18pm

based on what?

Genghis Spreads

Oct 17, 3:11pm

Every football expert’s opinion, like ever . . .

theonick

Oct 17, 6:45pm

“Offense wins games but defense wins championships.”

Genghis Spreads

Oct 17, 10:17pm

How about this one - defense travels

theonick

Oct 18, 6:38am

The greatest show on turf is probably the team that comes to mind.

boctabulous

Oct 18, 9:22am

How’d that go against a very young Tom Brady

theonick

Oct 18, 10:05am

Same way it went for most teams against the best team in history.

boctabulous

Oct 18, 10:06am

Exactly, solid offense extremely effective defense = elite team

theonick

Oct 18, 10:44am

Even if Washington played us and beat us, we were still a championship caliber

Genghis Spreads

Oct 18, 10:03am

Theres going to be at least one game where the defense struggles

MaximusMeridius

Oct 17, 4:01pm

There already was one: Baylor.

xgbs

Oct 17, 5:20pm

"struggling" is forcing 2 turnovers, 2.3 yards per carry, and 56% pass comp?

MaximusMeridius

Oct 17, 6:39pm

If the opponent runs an extremely conservative primarily running offense they

Reasonable1

Oct 17, 4:01pm

Well that’s because we have a weak schedule.

Cougarclaw

Oct 17, 2:17pm

RE: Jay Hill isn't messing around.

CougfromtheSouth

Oct 17, 2:17pm

If Oklahoma St installs new QB, it could get beautifully ugly for OSU on Friday.

Blue Ghost

Oct 17, 2:18pm

Or, just a massive run fest and no turnovers to get—which means offense will

Oct 17, 2:27pm

Oh? Fumbles aren’t a thing in your reality? Also, 1 dimensional offenses aren’t

Saxa

Oct 17, 2:30pm

Interestingly there were 3x as many fumbles than interceptions in NCAA last year

ochobeeguy

Oct 18, 10:40am

OSU is second to last in Run Offense in the Big-12. And Colorado doesn't try.

Blue Ghost

Oct 17, 2:31pm

That’s probably because OSU has been holding back their full run playbook

Oct 17, 2:34pm

I'll take it. Ok St defense sucks.

YOHONOMOTO

Oct 17, 10:08pm

Somebody better be getting the Brinks truck ready for when the season ends.

Oct 17, 2:23pm

RE: Somebody better be getting the Brinks truck ready for when the season ends.

m0resn0w

Oct 17, 2:26pm

That is amazing.

Oct 17, 2:24pm

I don't think that's right...

Fightgar

Oct 17, 2:47pm

30 people have viewed this and not one response??

Fightgar

Oct 17, 2:53pm

4 people have viewed this and not one response??

Fightgar

Oct 17, 2:54pm

I got you. Took time to get my slide rule out of my cargo shorts.

Oct 17, 2:56pm

No - that's not what most likely means

Oct 17, 2:54pm

Although I disagree, I thank you for your response.

Fightgar

Oct 17, 2:55pm

After thinking it over, there's more truth to your point than I realized

Oct 17, 3:23pm

I was sure that being drug through the front door would be an outcome.

kbufcoug

Oct 17, 3:59pm

Sounds like someone got an ‘A’ in stats 121!!

7FootRussian

Oct 17, 8:51pm

Consider rolling two dice

The Dark Knight

Oct 17, 3:00pm

Put another way

The Dark Knight

Oct 17, 3:06pm

For some reason, I just read it as "over 50% of the time, it ends in a turnover"

Fightgar

Oct 17, 3:19pm

Both are true: most likely outcome is a turnover. Most likely something other th

Coug-Ida

Oct 17, 4:17pm

It's right. 35% T.O., 33% punt, 14% TD, 14% FG, 4% end of half/game

Brandoblueblood

Oct 17, 4:19pm

You are right. But it depends on how you frame the statement.

Blewis15

Oct 17, 6:53pm

Here's the opponent drive information: Opponents have had 71 drives (not counting two 1-play drives at the end of

Spiff

Oct 17, 8:57pm

Great post. Thanks. That is incredible and beautiful to look at.

boctabulous

Oct 18, 9:23am

You should start a new thread with this post. It's really interesting data - I think more would like to see it.

HarlemCoug

Oct 18, 9:30am

If there are more than 2 outcomes, most likely can be less than 50%.

ochobeeguy

Oct 18, 10:43am

This is a killer stat. Great job.

DazeofBlue

Oct 17, 2:58pm

That's insane. Also, most likely unsustainable

boctabulous

Oct 17, 3:37pm

And long towards morning Wrubell breaks out a meaningful stat. 👏👏👏

KYU

Oct 17, 4:19pm

Looking at it from an objective standpoint, it could mean that we are

chazen

Oct 17, 5:37pm

Yeah, I wonder if a lot of our turnover on downs is in fourth quarter

viper

Oct 17, 6:19pm

Of the 12 4th Down stops, 3 were in the 1st quarter, 1 in the 2nd, 4 in the 3rd, & 4 in the 4th.

Spiff

Oct 17, 10:11pm

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