So assuming they lose to Iowa State, that game will knock one of them out of one-loss status. They also play WVU.

CU lost to KSU but does not play Houston, so in a comparison of like teams, we win that tie breaker, if they win out.

WVU also plays @Tech and Kstate so I find it unlikely they stay with one loss. But if they do, Houston isn't a common opponent, so I'm not sure how tiebreaker would end.

We play ASU, so under your scenario if we beat them, they will have 2 losses.

Cincinnati plays ASU, CU, WVU, Iowa State, and Kstate so I don't think they are going to be there.

So in short, most likely one loss teams (not Kstate or Iowa state) seem to be Tech or CU. We should hope for CU to win in that scenario.