Over the last 2 drafts the here's how the draft breaks out:
- 98+ recruit rating: 7.95% of draftees
- 96-98 recruit rating: 7.75%
- 94-96 recruit rating: 4.84%
- 92-94 recruit rating: 5.23%
- 90-92 recruit rating: 5.81%
- 88-90 recruit rating: 12.60%
- 86-88 recruit rating: 13.76%
- 84-86 recruit rating: 13.57%
- 82-84 recruit rating: 9.11%
- 80-82 recruit rating: 3.10%
- 78-80 recruit rating: 2.13%
- Sub 78, but rated: 3.68%
- Unrated: 10.47%
So that makes it look like ratings aren't that important, that most NFL draft picks come from the 84-90 rated range. But it doesn't account for how often each rating is given. There's a LOT more 85 rated players than 99 rated players, so what we really want to know is how much more likely a 99 rated guy is to be drafted than an 85.
For this, we're only looking at players that are rated. A fair number of unrated players do get drafted, but we need a defined sample size, and the number of recruits who aren't rated is near infinite.
So we will just look at the likelihood of a given rated recruit being drafted, as compared to the likelihood of a random rated recruit.
- 98+ recruit rating: 8.52x more likely to be drafted than the nominal rated recruit
- 96-98 recruit rating: 6.96x
- 94-96 recruit rating: 5.33x
- 92-94 recruit rating: 2.95x
- 90-92 recruit rating: 2.30x
- 88-90 recruit rating: 2.65x
- 86-88 recruit rating: 1.51x
- 84-86 recruit rating: 0.96x
- 82-84 recruit rating: 0.59x
- 80-82 recruit rating: 0.18x
- 78-80 recruit rating: 0.17x
- Sub 78, but rated: 0.41x
So if you're wondering how much more likely a 98+ recruit is to eventually be drafted than a 78-80 rated recruit, it's 8.52/0.17 or 50.72x more likely. An 88-90 is 1.75x more likely to be drafted than a 86-88
Unsurprisingly higher ratings are even more important in hoping to be drafted early. Among 1st round draft picks, the ratios become
- 98+ recruit rating: 28.81x more likely to be 1st round drafted than the nominal rated recruit
- 96-98 recruit rating: 10.71x
- 94-96 recruit rating: 9.84x
- 92-94 recruit rating: 2.52x
- 90-92 recruit rating: 2.36x
- 88-90 recruit rating: 1.57x
- 86-88 recruit rating: 1.48x
- 84-86 recruit rating: 0.32x
- 82-84 recruit rating: 0.29x
- 80-82 recruit rating: 0.09x
- 78-80 recruit rating: 0x
- Sub 78, but rated: 0x
And if we expand it to the first 3 rounds it comes out to
- 98+ recruit rating: 15.39x more likely to be drafted in the first 3 rounds than the nominal rated recruit
- 96-98 recruit rating: 10.21x
- 94-96 recruit rating: 7.61x
- 92-94 recruit rating: 3.63x
- 90-92 recruit rating: 2.35x
- 88-90 recruit rating: 3.02x
- 86-88 recruit rating: 1.58x
- 84-86 recruit rating: 0.49x
- 82-84 recruit rating: 0.42x
- 80-82 recruit rating: 0.09x
- 78-80 recruit rating: 0.08x
- Sub 78, but rated: 0.17x