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Jun 11, 2024
4:57:18pm
krindorr Playmaker
I still think 1000 is the wrong number

Especially if you're going to credit unrated, 2-star, and 3-stars not in the denominator of that group as counting toward that group when they are drafted.

There are 134 FBS teams with 85 scholarships. That means 2850 new recruits each year (on average). That number would be slightly lower due to redshirts...but slightly higher due to early entrants and people giving up the sport at some point. So it's a pretty good average estimate.

So the portion of new recruits in a given year is

  • 5-star: 35/2850 = 1.23%
  • 4-star:  415/2850 = 14.56%
  • 3-star or lower: 2400/2850 = 84.21%

By those numbers, your draft results

  • 5-star: 4.26% of draftees
  • 4-star:  32.95% of draftees
  • 3-star and lower: 62.8% of draftees 

Now tells exactly the story you'd expect

  • 5-star are drafted at 3.46x their representation rate
  • 4-star are drafted at 2.26x their representation rate
  • 3-star and below are drafted at 0.746x their representation rate

Unfortunately I don't have the fidelity in data to break down the 3 star and below better, but will try to do that later 

This message has been modified
Originally posted on Jun 11, 2024 at 4:57:18pm
Message modified by krindorr on Jun 11, 2024 at 4:58:12pm
Message modified by krindorr on Jun 11, 2024 at 5:42:55pm
krindorr
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