In all seriousness, if I had to bet the house on it I'd bet it hit the ground. That said, I wouldn't bet the house on either outcome because there's simply not enough evidence either way. The positioning of his other arm is correct for the ball to bounce off his hand. Doesn't mean it did, just that it's possible.
As for how it was handled. It was the correct call. The video evidence wasn't there to overturn the call on the field.