Also, are we for sure that KSU will have the highest SOS for the 3-way?

Oct 25, 2024
11:22:01am

BYUCLA All-American

It would make sense since they play both BYU and ISU but anything could happen since we are less than halfway through conference schedule.

Report problem with this ad

BYUCLA

Previous username: jco77
Bio page: BYUCLA
Joined: Jul 23, 2012
Last login: Oct 25, 2024
Total posts: 5,415 (4 FO)

Report problem with this ad

Messages

Author

Time

BYU's CCG probabilities. We DO NOT want ISU and KSU to win until their game

zuko

10:12am

Here are more results of how likely BYU is to get in based on others' records

zuko

10:14am

Nice work!

bythenumbers

2:43pm

Tldr Iowa State only losing to Kansas State is bad for BYU

BYUFootballisBack

10:27am

This is elite analysis- respect #

NYCougz

10:30am

Best thing about this is I don't see the Utes in any of these scenarios lol.

Reach

10:53am

I swear they had a less than 1% chance of getting to Pac12 championship in 2022

SoBlueitHurts

11:18am

They had 1 in 16 scenarios in the last week to put them in the CCG and all 4 gam

Greg4BYU

11:29am

I had turned that Oregon game off thinking it was over. So stupid.

bythenumbers

2:42pm

1/16, but some of those (specifically Or St winning) was not very high. Not that

SoBlueitHurts

3:26pm

BYU has a 58% chance of playing in the championship game, even with two losses?

Art Director

10:55am

Yes. This is because ISU and KSU are both unlikely to win out, and BYU matches

zuko

10:57am

You are clearly interpreting the tiebreaker scenario differently than CB earlier

BYUCLA

10:57am

I don't think the tiebreaker procedures are very ambiguous, but there is a

zuko

11:03am

Edited my above post to add more details. 2-way tiebreaker with ISU comes to:

BYUCLA

11:08am

But the other question is if K St counts as higher ranked because they'd

RGGeemer

2:03pm

After your edit, yes, that is the one debatable point in the tiebreakers. To me,

zuko

11:11am

Will be interesting to see. Here’s another discussion on that point:

BYUCLA

11:19am

It seems unintentional and I wouldn’t be surprised if they rule in BYU’s favor

BYUCLA

11:20am

When I do these next week, maybe I'll compare results depending on the two ways

zuko

12:01pm

Looking forward to your simulations. Great stuff!

BYUCLA

12:06pm

Also, are we for sure that KSU will have the highest SOS for the 3-way?

BYUCLA

11:22am

No, we are not for sure. But based on my simulations, KSU usually has the best.

zuko

11:26am

I don't think there is a 3 way tie breaker and then a 2 way tie breaker

NYC and Japan

2:26pm

Read the tiebreaker rules please before posting.

RGGeemer

2:31pm

Exactly. Where does it say there is a 3 way tie breaker that choses only 1 team

NYC and Japan

2:40pm

Please read the paragraph immediately below the title "Multiple Team Ties" and

RGGeemer

2:46pm

Utah Fans...So you're saying there's a chance.

Las Pampas

11:10am

No, Utah fans (still): "We gonna dominate this truckstop conf! You're welcome"

Brandoblueblood

1:25pm

If CO wins out, I don't see a scenario they don't make the CCG...but 1 may exist

Best Guess

11:17am

in my opinion, the most important other game is Cinci/CU. CU needs to lose.

Best Guess

11:19am

If BYU, CO, and one of ISU and KSU win out, CO doesn't make the CCG

zuko

11:23am

Yes, but if BYU doesn't win out that's the concern. An analysis of an undefeated

Best Guess

11:32am

Here are the probabilities in some scenarios for CO:

zuko

11:44am

If you have more scenarios you want simulated, let me know

zuko

11:47am

Are you able to see the actual needed results for CO winning out w/ BYU 1 loss

Best Guess

12:13pm

Here are about 20 examples of CO not making it, some of which may be duplicates:

zuko

12:49pm

Very interesting. I plugged a couple in and got the same results as you.

Best Guess

1:24pm

I saw 3 scenarios where the CCG is BYU v KState and CO won out:

zuko

1:36pm

Interesting. All 2 loss Iowa State. I'm surprised CO winning out is only 1.5%.

Best Guess

1:57pm

RE: Interesting. All 2 loss Iowa State. I'm surprised CO winning out is only

zuko

2:12pm

How is that possible? 2 loss ISU gives byu a much better chance at not having to

RGGeemer

2:15pm

Actually BYU is more likely to be tied with ISU if they have 10 wins, because

zuko

2:22pm

I see. That makes sense. I'm hoping we get to 11+ wins. 10-2 and lucking into

RGGeemer

2:25pm

Fantastic data. Thanks for running these! Looking forward to next week's.

Best Guess

2:18pm

And here is a table of the final win count probabilities for each team:

zuko

1:58pm

Wait…where are the Ute Kings of the truck stop conference?

Honor Code

11:49am

Do you have a git repo we can investigate??

Sircumference

12:01pm

Have at it. Let me know if you find anything to improve

zuko

1:30pm

None of this matters if we don't beat UCF. They should have our full attention.

rbr

12:33pm

They should have the team’s full attention. Fans can talk about this w/o problem

Metallicat

12:39pm

Aksually, this matter more if we lose to UCF. If we win out, none of this matter

Best Guess

12:47pm

Yep

RGGeemer

2:04pm

Cincinnati vs BYU... "So you're saying that there's a chance!"

VenomFarmer

1:15pm

Utah be like ... "So you're saying there's a chance?"

calbearcoug

1:41pm

So there is almost a 58% chance a team from Utah is in the CCG.

Blusox

2:26pm

i don't think K-State loses before then. Only road game is at Houston. And even

Lifer

2:43pm

Does this mean I have to hope for Utah to WIN against K-State?.... shuddering...

CornfedCougar

2:57pm

👎

RGGeemer

3:03pm

Utah and KState could only meet in the CCG or the playoffs, so definitely NO!

Posting on CougarBoard