I don't think it's tougher. Probably debatable from prognosticans I've seen, but the schedule last year was daunting.
Before the year started, there were at least 4 games that were seen as near automatic losses by most in Arkansas, TCU, Texas, and OU. You cite (correctly) just 1 gimmee this year. Last year we had 2. Last year, nearly everyone had us at 2-1 after 3 games. I think the odds are at least comparable that we will be 2-1 after 3 games this year, even though we (for that brief, fleeting window) exceeded initial expecations in '23 to open 3-0.
As much as I loathe what I am about to write, the 1 thing that most closely resembles an auto loss on this schedule is probably Utah. But our games with them are historically close, and one never knows. Maybe the collective hate of the entire Big-12 takes its toll on the Utes by November.
After that, the schedule lines up favorably to where apparently tougher teams come to Provo while we should have a fighting chance vs. most or all of our road opponents.
This all comes down to a very key and far from given factor: We actually put a consistent, competitive, quality product on the field. A decent P4 team can find 7 wins vs. this schedule. I hope we produce one of those this year at BYU.