Let's go through it position by position, comparing the roster last year to this year 

Quarterback: Last year we had a QB who was great two transfers ago (but had been on a steady decline since) and Jake Retzlaff.  This year we have a QB who was great two transfers ago (but has been in decline since) and Jake Retzlaff.  On the one hand Kedon had higher highs than Bohanon and had multiple seasons of production so he's probably better. On the other hand, Retzlaff knows the system better now.  Call this one a PUSH

Running Back: We're all (rightfully) excited about LJ Martin, but the loss of Aidan Robbins hurts.  In our games at the end of the season where we looked decent, Robbins was the biggest reason. Martin's increased experience isn't enough to make up for the loss of Robbins, especially since depth behind him is a guy who has had so many chances and still hasn't been trusted by the staff. DOWNGRADE

Wide Receiver: Roberts, Epps, Marion, Lassiter, Kingston, Phillips all return. With the exception of Phillips those are experienced enough that they basically are what they are. We also add (and are excited about) Cody Hagen, Dom McKenzie, and Tei Nacua. Given the depth in front of them, hard to see them having a huge impact this year, but they definitely raise the ceiling if any of them can become stars as true freshmen. Between that and the continuity, this spot is a SLIGHT UPGRADE. For clarity, it's mostly not larger because the receiving corps was already pretty good last year so harder to improve on.

Tight End: On the one hand, Isaac Rex was never the same after his injury and never hit the heights we hoped/expected. On the other hand, he was good enough to get an NFL invite (even if it didn't last until camps) and the TE performance behind him was absolutely non-existent last year. Keanu Hill has some performance and Swanson/Bowers bring upside, but without having seen it and just projecting, I can't do better than calling this a PUSH (and even that might be generous)

Offensive Line: The hope here is coaching... But if we're just looking at players, then we lost Suamataia and Maile and are trying to replace them from within with guys who are young, inexperienced and weren't highly rated. It's possible someone steps up and surprises or that coaches make a difference, but based on what we know now, this position group is a DOWNGRADE

Defensive Interior: We lost the entire defensive interior (Cravens, Mahe, and Haws)....but it wasn't exactly a strength last year.  I like Nelson there, but it's a bunch of unknowns and JUCO transfers.  This might be a downgrade since we have to replace everyone, but the poor performance last year is enough that I can't call it anything more than a SLIGHT DOWNGRADE

Edge: Batty and Bagnah last year, Bagnah and Batty this year.  So the default thought is that it's the same as last year. Which is not great, considering we were literally the worst in FBS at getting to the quarterback. A year of growth from Batty and Bagnah and the signing of Asiata makes this a SLIGHT UPGRADE ...but we're also operating from the lowest possible floor.

Linebacker: Last year was Bywater, Tooley (currently under contract with the Texans) and an exciting one-year transfer in Vongphachanh. This year is Bywater, an exciting one-year transfer (Kelly) and an assortment of young guys. Unlike Swanson, Bowers, Asiata, Davis, or the various offensive lineman, we've actually seen these young guys play. Kelly is better than Vongphachanh, so if Bywater is healthy, it's hard to imagine at least one of the young guys not taking another step.  I'll call this a SLIGHT UPGRADE

Cornerback: Robinson is back, but Heckard and Garrett are gone and replaced by ... the guy behind them at Weber St and TBD? I've seen Bamba, McKenzie, even Micah Harper there.  Regardless, with the uncertainty this is a DOWNGRADE

Safety: Last year the plan was Micah Harper and Malik Moore...which was basically torpedoed by injuries. Now the plan is possibly Harper and the guys who replaced him last year.  Still, they're young enough that they should be growing a lot, especially with knowing they will be playing, instead of being thrown into it.  This is more internal growth than a true upgrade, but still a SLIGHT UPGRADE.

Special Teams: Only big change is the punter. And losing an NFL-rostered punter makes it clear that this is a DOWNGRADE.

So....overall I have 4 position groups downgraded, 1 slightly downgraded, 2 equal, and 4 as a slight upgrade. Overall the roster is probably slightly weaker 

BUT it's also certainly more volatile with some potential surprises. There's a lot of young guys with real upside. In the above analysis, I've tried to avoid wearing blue goggles and predicting true freshmen (or others we've seen basically nothing from) as instant impact players. But if they all are immediate difference-makers (as you predict), then we certainly could surprise. 

I also didn't take into account coaching changes - just because anytime a coach is switched out, people will assume it's better...but of course that isn't always the case. I tend to think players matter more than coaches, but that's just a personal philosophy. If Woods can get the OL performing at a different level, that would obviously also make a major difference.

From my perspective, I think it may be correct that we have a rough year...but I also think we'll start seeing the seeds of something more as all these exciting young players get more opportunity and start growing