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Jun 12, 2024
12:31:33am
krindorr Playmaker
Analysis of Draft Probability by Recruit Ranking

Over the last 2 drafts the here's how the draft breaks out:

  • 98+ recruit rating: 7.95% of draftees
  • 96-98 recruit rating: 7.75%
  • 94-96 recruit rating: 4.84%
  • 92-94 recruit rating: 5.23%
  • 90-92 recruit rating: 5.81%
  • 88-90 recruit rating: 12.60%
  • 86-88 recruit rating: 13.76%
  • 84-86 recruit rating: 13.57%
  • 82-84 recruit rating: 9.11%
  • 80-82 recruit rating: 3.10%
  • 78-80 recruit rating: 2.13%
  • Sub 78, but rated: 3.68%
  • Unrated: 10.47%

So that makes it look like ratings aren't that important, that most NFL draft picks come from the 84-90 rated range.  But it doesn't account for how often each rating is given.  There's a LOT more 85 rated players than 99 rated players, so what we really want to know is how much more likely a 99 rated guy is to be drafted than an 85.  

For this, we're only looking at players that are rated.  A fair number of unrated players do get drafted, but we need a defined sample size, and the number of recruits who aren't rated is near infinite. 

So we will just look at the likelihood of a given rated recruit being drafted, as compared to the likelihood of a random rated recruit.

  • 98+ recruit rating: 8.52x more likely to be drafted than the nominal rated recruit
  • 96-98 recruit rating: 6.96x
  • 94-96 recruit rating: 5.33x
  • 92-94 recruit rating: 2.95x
  • 90-92 recruit rating: 2.30x
  • 88-90 recruit rating: 2.65x
  • 86-88 recruit rating: 1.51x
  • 84-86 recruit rating: 0.96x
  • 82-84 recruit rating: 0.59x
  • 80-82 recruit rating: 0.18x
  • 78-80 recruit rating: 0.17x
  • Sub 78, but rated: 0.41x

So if you're wondering how much more likely a 98+ recruit is to eventually be drafted than a 78-80 rated recruit, it's 8.52/0.17 or 50.72x more likely.  An 88-90 is 1.75x more likely to be drafted than a 86-88

Unsurprisingly higher ratings are even more important in hoping to be drafted early.  Among 1st round draft picks, the ratios become

  • 98+ recruit rating: 28.81x more likely to be 1st round drafted than the nominal rated recruit
  • 96-98 recruit rating: 10.71x
  • 94-96 recruit rating: 9.84x
  • 92-94 recruit rating: 2.52x
  • 90-92 recruit rating: 2.36x
  • 88-90 recruit rating: 1.57x
  • 86-88 recruit rating: 1.48x
  • 84-86 recruit rating: 0.32x
  • 82-84 recruit rating: 0.29x
  • 80-82 recruit rating: 0.09x
  • 78-80 recruit rating: 0x
  • Sub 78, but rated: 0x

And if we expand it to the first 3 rounds it comes out to

  • 98+ recruit rating: 15.39x more likely to be drafted in the first 3 rounds than the nominal rated recruit
  • 96-98 recruit rating: 10.21x
  • 94-96 recruit rating: 7.61x
  • 92-94 recruit rating: 3.63x
  • 90-92 recruit rating: 2.35x
  • 88-90 recruit rating: 3.02x
  • 86-88 recruit rating: 1.58x
  • 84-86 recruit rating: 0.49x
  • 82-84 recruit rating: 0.42x
  • 80-82 recruit rating: 0.09x
  • 78-80 recruit rating: 0.08x
  • Sub 78, but rated: 0.17x
krindorr
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krindorr
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