I simulated the remainder of the season 1,000,000 times based on the Massey Ratings win probabilities for the remaining games. After applying the B12 tiebreaker procedures to determine who is in the CCG, things are looking pretty favorable for BYU:



Here's a breakdown of each team's probability of making the CCG based on their final record. It's very interesting to see that BYU, ISU, and KSU all "control their own destiny" while Cinci almost does, and TTech, Colorado, and ASU all have great odds of making the CCG if they win out.

Here are the most probable CCG matchups:


Here are two tables with interesting scenarios. If BYU is 12-0, we get in 100% of the time, so all of these focus on situations where BYU has at least one loss. Though these scenarios are all unlikely, it's concerning that our odds of making the CCG go down significantly if KSU and ISU both win all their games until they play each other.



Here are the odds of BYU, ISU, and KSU making the CCG depending on who they lose to: