Holy outlier, Batman!

Oct 30, 2024
8:09:58am

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

How does each team’s current win total compare to preseason realistic expectations through Week 9? pic.twitter.com/G24pUf1IAp
— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) October 30, 2024

https://twitter.com/KFordRatings/status/1851625146357776659

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Indy Coug

Bio page: Indy Coug
Joined: Dec 20, 2001
Last login: Oct 30, 2024
Total posts: 188,940 (10,078 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Holy outlier, Batman!

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

8:09am

Kalan’s agent is going to enjoy his extension negotiations this offseason

CougarCanuck76

8:11am

This season has permanently destroyed my ability to moderate expectations.

swingcat

8:12am

The chart is a rotated normal distribution. Just recognize that being out in the tail that far

Indy Coug

8:16am

Thanks for that wet blanket analysis.

acadian8

8:44am

I’m not saying BYU is going to regularly be expected to only win 4-5 games.

Indy Coug

8:47am

Meh. Just enjoy this season for what it is.

BleedCougarBlue2

9:32am

It's obvious the predictive model missed big time. It continues to do so each

Socrates Johnson

9:52am

I think this is more of a BYU was better last year, but they were going through

Cougar TD

10:09am

Coach of the Year

Coog4Life

8:15am

I see 2 outliers

yorksama

8:16am

Whoever "owns" the "UU" logo there sure did a good job pumping themselves up...

Brandoblueblood

9:19am

Nice bell(-ish) curve.

Kilgore Trout

8:18am

I think they had to expand their chart just to fit us on. Oh...and FSU.

BlueKarma

8:18am

Think about this: BYU is further from expectations and is FSU.

cvd6262

8:26am

What a great chart

cmoney

8:24am

Why is anyone surprised by Wazzu? They are playing a G5 schedule

willkie40

8:31am

LOL FSU!

WillsPitStop

8:34am

This is one of the most amazing graphs I ‘ve seen. It perfectly encapsulates…

BluesBrother

8:38am

I can't see Florida State or BYU. . . Nevermind I had to Zoom out, A LOT!

Zoobieman

8:41am

So when BYU gets to 16 wins, they'll break this chart, correct?

thewaterboy

8:49am

Florida St. LOL

Lifer

8:52am

The expectations were more based on "sentiment" than actual data.

Brandoblueblood

9:08am

No, these expectations are based on data. The models have been calibrated based on historical results for 1,000s of

Indy Coug

9:44am

The fact that they are so slow to ignore the new reality seems a big weakness-

BeyondTheMark

10:05am

This is such a good model and post

stansburycoug

10:05am

Reasonable here is based on data: BYU expected to roughly match 2023. Utah

NYC and Japan

10:13am

Interesting that 6 of BYU's opponents (AZ, UU, WY, OSU, KA, UCF) - are in the bottom 13 on this chart. We've played 4

Zenoch

9:10am

We should be more surprised by our success than FSU is by their lack of it?

Socrates Johnson

9:51am

Looking at where all Big 12 teams ends up

krindorr

10:14am

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