Not when you actually look at the history. There’s a successful rookie QB most years, and when there isn’t, it’s usually
in a QB class everyone knows is bad.
Pick a three year period, and look at the rookie QBs who started from day one. There will be at least one who turned out well in 2/3 years. Here’s a list over the past 20 years, and I only included the best from each year:
2024 - Too early to tell, but Daniel’s/Williams look good
2023 - Stroud
2022 - Purdy
2021 - NA
2020 - Burrow
2019 - Kyler
2018 - Allen
2017 - NA (would have been Watson if he didn’t start sucking)
2016 - Goff
2015 - NA (Winston/Mariota year)
2014 - Carr
2013 - NA
2012 - Luck
2011 - Newton
2010 - NA
2009 - Stafford
2008 - Ryan
2007 - NA
2006 - NA
2005 - NA
2004 - Manning
Recently, we’re getting a new franchise QB pretty much every year.