prognostication is banking on the idea that our freshmen are better than everyone else's freshmen. We have a brand new coach, that's never been a college HC, and the rest of the Big12 isn't dealing with that. The only way your scenario plays out is if we blow expectations out the water, and everything works out better than the professional projectionists believe.

Think USU last year, where it all just magically came together with a new coach and completely new players. It could happen, but probably won't. For every USU in CBB last year there were 15 teams that dealt with the opposite result.