Assuming independence, 6.3% chance going 4-0, 5.2% chance going 0-4

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Oct 1, 2024
2:20:58pm

CycloneCoug Contributor

Assuming independence, 6.3% chance going 4-0, 5.2% chance going 0-4

For the record, I do not agree with my friends in Cardinal and Gold here

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CycloneCoug

Bio page: CycloneCoug
Joined: Sep 18, 2023
Last login: Dec 21, 2024
Total posts: 1,218 (0 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Two guys on the Cyclone Fanatic podcast just predicted BYU 0-4 in next 4

CycloneCoug

Oct 1, 11:27am

Were your friends in the ISU student government in 2016?

Benfica1

Oct 1, 11:28am

Probably

Icelandic Cougar

Oct 1, 11:28am

That's not all that unreasonable...on the harsh side, but certainly possible.

NOCAL_YFAN

Oct 1, 11:29am

Anything >0% chance is possible. It’s not probable though.

mulletino

Oct 1, 11:32am

Well, Arizona is currently favored by 1.5 pts, Utah and UCF are likely to be

NOCAL_YFAN

Oct 1, 11:37am

We’ve beaten the spread, I believe, by an average of 17.4 pts per game.

mulletino

Oct 1, 11:41am

A fact oddsmakers are well aware of in the setting of the current odds.

NOCAL_YFAN

Oct 1, 11:47am

Yet each passing game they’re chosen to lose.

mulletino

Oct 1, 12:28pm

Yeah, but apparently they suck at predicting how this team will do.

mvtoro

Oct 1, 1:51pm

Technically they are not trying to predict the winner, they are trying to

here's to hoping

Oct 1, 6:39pm

Yes. The people betting and thereby controlling the spread apparently suck at predicting how this team will do. So when

mvtoro

Oct 2, 12:01am

You're really working hard to make the negative case. The odds makers don't

Jasbo

Oct 1, 4:57pm

The spreads don't get all set at the beginning of the year. Bettors have more

Tricky

Oct 1, 2:10pm

I know. Yet here we are with another expected loss according to the line makers and bettors. I'd say the chances are

mulletino

Oct 1, 2:32pm

Why would UCF be favored? They lost to CU and CU beat Baylor. We just beat

Blue for Life

Oct 1, 11:44am

We have to go to Florida to play UCF. Home field advantage & travel and the

NOCAL_YFAN

Oct 1, 12:01pm

Playing UCF in Orlando didn't seem to bother Colorado

slatecoug

Oct 1, 3:19pm

Well yeah, FPI does say we have a 5% chance of going 0-4 in the next 4 games . .

viper

Oct 1, 3:57pm

What chance did FPI give us to go 5-0 at start of the year? I don’t 0-4 in the

Cooouuugs

Oct 1, 4:15pm

FPI is a joke at the beginning of the season basing it on last year. Anyone

viper

Oct 1, 4:30pm

Fair enough, point conceded

Cooouuugs

Oct 1, 6:48pm

We ain’t losing to OK State at home. Have you seen them? They’re terrible.

andrewg3

Oct 1, 8:44pm

Understandable considering what ISU did to us last year

Huge Manatee

Oct 1, 11:32am

Such a pathetic game. Left w/ just a couple minutes left & apologized for not giving them a better game passed ISU fans.

Soupie

Oct 1, 12:46pm

What gripe would Iowa State fans have with BYU?

BYU Fan

Oct 1, 11:33am

Who says they have a gripe? Could be objective analysis.

YOHONOMOTO

Oct 1, 11:37am

He said that many of his Cyclone friends were BYU haters...

BYU Fan

Oct 1, 11:41am

oh got it. yeah that is weird.

YOHONOMOTO

Oct 1, 11:43am

Maybe they hate BYU for what we did to their basketball team last season

ldssdl

Oct 1, 11:44am

They thought BYU's bball team was a paper tiger last year as well, haha

Das_Countach

Oct 1, 2:05pm

Think they're just trying project their own desires to eliminate who they see as

BackPacker

Oct 1, 11:39am

This is probably a part of it

CycloneCoug

Oct 1, 11:54am

Iowa state was the loudest voice against BYU joining in 2016

CycloneCoug

Oct 1, 11:53am

A few loud voices in student government, where stupid voices are amplified.

HenderCoug

Oct 1, 3:41pm

I was on campus when whole student organizations held an anti-BYU rally

CycloneCoug

Oct 1, 4:16pm

This ☝️☝️ In my book they remain the Corn Yewts

Your Royal Blueness

Oct 1, 9:04pm

Religious bigotry

here's to hoping

Oct 1, 6:45pm

Isn’t paper tiger a term used for someone over-rated but can’t back it up?

MHOP

Oct 1, 11:36am

They’re projecting them to be a paper tiger

CycloneCoug

Oct 1, 11:54am

their point is we will be exposed as such going forward and that we only beat weak teams so far

byujag

Oct 1, 11:56am

and has the second highest strength of record in the country.

MaxxPower

Oct 1, 1:21pm

Is that for the whole season, or the first 5 games?

Tricky

Oct 1, 2:11pm

For the first 5 games. It grades how a team has performed relative to

MaxxPower

Oct 1, 2:24pm

Thanks - that's great to hear

Tricky

Oct 1, 3:40pm

I don't know how you could say that with how our defense has looked.

YOHONOMOTO

Oct 1, 11:36am

There's was no paper involved in BYU's trouncing of KSU or wins @ SMU & Baylor

Doogal McCougar

Oct 1, 11:37am

BYU is a good home team, I wonder how we do on the road

Projectoor

Oct 1, 12:02pm

Although we are 5-0, I also worry about dropping the next 4 games.

Boring

Oct 1, 12:43pm

RE: Although we are 5-0, I also worry about dropping the next 4 games.

APowerfulY

Oct 1, 3:06pm

We could go 0-4. I don't think we will, but we've lost 4 in a row before.

IronPotato

Oct 1, 12:52pm

5 percent chance if you believe FPI. 6 percent chance of winning them all.

bythenumbers

Oct 1, 1:30pm

We could go 0-4, 1-3, 2-2, 3-1, or 4-0

runningryan

Oct 1, 1:33pm

If I were yewt, I would say we could go 5-0 over our next 4 games.

Pangare

Oct 1, 3:28pm

Does anyone think we’ll have more than 8 wins?

stoils

Oct 1, 1:35pm

I do. I think 9. plus a potential bowl win. I see us winning Houston and Kansas

BYU-Ite

Oct 1, 1:53pm

ESPN is predicting 9.3 wins and that is where I am at, about 9 wins

Projectoor

Oct 1, 1:58pm

Pretty much every computer model has doubled the predicted wins to about 9

NYC and Japan

Oct 1, 2:22pm

This is what the BYU football team wants more people to doubt them

BulldogCoug79

Oct 1, 1:51pm

I seriously doubt that we lose at home to both Arizona and Oklahoma State.

WillsPitStop

Oct 1, 1:54pm

EVERY one of those 4 games are very lose-able. But we are HARDLY a paper tiger. We'll go 4-for-4 before we go 0-for-4.

SinkingQuffa

Oct 1, 1:55pm

Assuming independence, 6.3% chance going 4-0, 5.2% chance going 0-4

CycloneCoug

Oct 1, 2:20pm

Low expectations are good in this case - most teams play better a chip on their

Srg

Oct 1, 2:00pm

During the Sitake era, BYU football has the following win percentages by month:

BYUlv

Oct 1, 2:11pm

I'd be more worried about Baylor this Saturday. I don't think ISU survives.

Corn

Oct 1, 2:13pm

Here's the reality, BYU could lose every one of the next 4 games, however...

lbmango

Oct 1, 2:14pm

Odds are we go anywhere from 1-3 to 3-1 over our next 4 games.

jreid191

Oct 1, 2:14pm

Find me 2 guys from any podcast who didn't think we'd only have 4 wins total before the season started.....

AltTabbins

Oct 1, 2:37pm

If BYU is a paper tiger

Deeppost

Oct 1, 2:48pm

K-state looks better than Iowa IMO

SoBlueitHurts

Oct 1, 6:53pm

i know there are some great ISU fans, but in general only Utah fans rival them

Hawk Talons

Oct 1, 2:53pm

It's quite possible

dixieutahbyuzag

Oct 1, 2:53pm

Protestant Utes

JupiterJones

Oct 1, 3:06pm

We could go 0-4 over the next 4. But, it could be fun though …

APowerfulY

Oct 1, 3:07pm

"Dog eats own crap in yard."

AF'er

Oct 1, 3:21pm

Of course it's possible. BYU hasn't exactly over performed in October. Just hope they're not right & team is

Soupie

Oct 1, 3:36pm

To make that kind of prediction just shows they either dislike BYU or have no real knowledge of CFB

Knight-who-says-ni

Oct 1, 3:49pm

BYU could go 0-4 lol

Burton162

Oct 1, 3:51pm

You think they hate BYU now...wait until basketball season!

coot20

Oct 1, 3:52pm

Amen...by far most unfriendly fan base at BB tourney in KC this yr

TampaBlu

Oct 1, 4:12pm

I'm not too proud to admit that I'm glad we're not playing ISU in Ames, although

Japan Coug

Oct 1, 4:30pm

I think the home team would win that matchup. ISU in Ames or BYU in Provo

CycloneCoug

Oct 1, 5:07pm

They killed last year at LES. We were blown out 4 times….

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