So, there is definitely a correlation between HS recruit ranking and getting drafted, especially at the top end, but the correlation isn't perfect, as there are some less highly recruited players who were drafted, especially in the later rounds. The first round picks tracked pretty closely with HS evaluations except for Penix, so the guys coming out of HS rated in the high 90's are definitely a more sure bet than the three star players, especially for the first round of the draft. As noted below, both Hall and Wilson rated about the same as Penix out of HS, and so were definitely outliers to get drafted.

Caleb Williams- Round 1, pick 1- HS rating was 99, #2 QB out of HS.
Jayden Daniels- Round 1, pick 2- HS rating was 97, #1 dual threat QB out of HS
Drake Mayo- Round 1, pick 3- HS rating was 98, #4 QB out of HS.
Michael Penix- Round 1, pick 8- HS rating was 85, #36 QB out of HS. This is definitely the biggest outlier.
JJ McCarthy- Round 1, pick 10- HS rating was 97, #6 QB out of HS.
Bo Nix- Round 1, pick 12- HS rating was 96, #2 dual threat QB out of HS.
Spencer Rattler- Round 5, pick 15- HS rating was 99, #1 QB out of HS.
Jordan Travis- Round 5, pick 36- HS rating was 86, #24 dual threat QB out of HS. Somewhat of an outlier, less so than Penix.
Joe Milton- Round 6, pick 17- HS rating of 88, #15 pro style QB out of HS.
Devin Leary- Round 6, pick 42- HS rating of 88, #16 pro style QB out of HS
Michael Pratt- Round 7, pick 25- HS rating of 82, #61 pro style QB out of HS. Big outlier.