expectation this year.

That would include going 9-1 at home (lone loss to Kansas; wins vs. Arizona, Texas Tech, and Baylor - among others)
It would also include going 3-7 on the road (losses to Houston, Iowa St., Arizona, Cincinnati, UCF, TCU, Arizona St; wins vs. WVU, Utah, and Colorado).

Obviously some of those road losses (UCF, TCU, Arizona St.) are to opponents that BYU should be better than. But as we all know, road wins can be tough to come by in this conference all most opponents are tough so even those losses would be Q1 losses.

In fact, if we put that 12-8 record in "Q1/2/3/4" brackets, it would be the following (using Bart Torvik's current 2025 rankings as a guide):

3-8 vs. Quad 1
6-0 vs. Quad 2
3-0 vs. Quad 3

No Quad 4 games in conference

If you flip the road losses to UCF/TCU/Arizona St. to wins, that would put BYU as a top-20 caliber team with a 15-5 record (and move the Quad 1 record to 6-5).