*edit* Link to Part Two, w/ full regional analysis across the US:

https://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=31076826

Quick Data List (short attention spans 😉 )
https://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=31078637

Being a part of the Big 12 helps BYU Football in so many more ways than just the media rights $$. It's once again a part of a conference, much improved football competition and ultimately the final product for the fans to enjoy. It's also the visibility it brings to the program in new areas across the country, especially football talent hotbeds for recruiting.

Yes, as an independent, BYU traveled across the country, however, for the most part, they were one-off games so you don't really establish a reputation in an area without playing on a regular basis.

Historically, BYU has recruited (obviously) Utah, CA, ID, WA, OR, CO, AZ, and for the most part, the west, where the highest concentration of the LDS faith exists. It also used to get a lot of talent from the Hawaiian islands, however, I feel like BYU has lost it's connection to Hawaii for whatever reason. There are still a lot of LDS kids on the islands, however, It doesn't seem like near as many players from HI are landing in Provo as say the 80s- early 2000s. I haven't really researched the trends, but that is just my anecdotal take on it.

Im just shooting from the hip here, but I would estimate that generally BYU's HS recruiting classes are a mix of 50-60% Utah players, 25-35% CA and 10-25 everywhere else depending on the year. I will say, Utah HS fb has reaaaaally upped its game over the past 10-15 years in terms of national attention they're getting across the up and coming players. Utah is really starting to put out some solid talent, but much of the top talent have left for the brighter lights of the SEC, B1G and PAC. Will BYU start seeing a trend reversal? Time will tell, but I sure hope so.

With that preface, where are the talent hot beds from an individual state standpoint? What about conference regions? Obv you have the CA, TX and FL, but which of those are generating the most top players year in and year out, and by how much? I did a little analysis and below is what I've found. This may take a few posts as I want to focus on a few different aspects of it, and how it should relate to building the Big XII even stronger than it is currently.

Using 247 data, each year the top ~35 players in the country are designated as the top-tier, 5-star (5*) players. The next 965 highest rated players are 4* (approx 400-415 are rated 4* each year) & high level 3* players (approx 550 are high 3*).

A "high 3* player" has a 247 rating above .8650 (247 ratings range from 2* @ .7000- .8000 where 3* begins and up to the best player in each class right at 1.000). 4* players start at .8901 and above and 5* players are .9835 and above.

...so the top 1000 is what I will be using as a baseline in terms of how the "professionals" view the top talent in each up and coming football recruiting class. It also makes the numbers easy to calculate.

So, in summary, only around 3.5% of the very best 1000 football players coming out of HS each year are rated 5*. Roughly 40% of the top 1000 are 4* and around 55% are the highest rated 3* players. To put that in context, there are about 1- 1.1 million High School football players each season. So let's assume that we take a quarter of those and that would represent the number of Seniors there are each season ~250K hoping to make it to college. Of that 250K about 18-20K will enter college as freshman on scholarship, PWO, etc. each season (both FBS/FCS and all levels of college football). There are approx 75-80K active football players in all of the NCAA.

So let that sink in, the top 1000 represents just ~5% of all incoming NCAA football players. Now of that best 5% segment, 5* players make up just 3.5% of that (aka 35 out of ~20K)!!! Just thought that might add some interesting color to the discussion.

Don't get me wrong, I know there are many players that start as 3* and end up first rd draft picks (aka 5* type players). And to counter that, there are many of these 4 and 5* kids that won't pan out at all, but that is hard to predict, so let's just stick to this simple method to give us a baseline narrative to understand where the hotbeds really are. I think this matters, because it is also an indication of general interest in football within a region.

My analysis is recent--taking in the past 3 recruiting cycles post-pandemic (2021, '22 and '23). I didn't include 2024 because it's is still being fine tuned in real-time and will likely change quite a bit during the upcoming season and players surge and or sink as well as unknowns become known before seasons end. I felt it would be best to hold off on using '24 data, but maybe I'll dig a little further back (pre-pandemic), but I wanted this as accurate and recent as possible and I feel good with the data I've mined.

So which of the "big three" states is truly the top football talent producing state? In terms of population, California is largest at just over 39MM total residents. That would be an easy pick, but is it accurate or does California actually "underproduce" top-level football talent? What about Florida? ...the third most populous state (just under 22M inhabitants) where Football is huge. Does it over-preform relative to its population? How about ol' Friday Night Lights Texas- 2nd most populous at just under 30M residents. Let's dig into this...

Let's start off with Utah as a baseline. How do you think we (those of us that live here, like myself) fare in terms of quality football and the recruits that are produced here? We seem to have a number of 4* kids coming out and every so often there's a 5*. Let's take a look:

Utah has 3.337 million residents and makes up just 1.01% of the total US population (~332 million currently). This means, that proportionally, Utah should be producing right at 1% of the top 1000 recruits annually (or roughly 10 top-1000 players, each season). Where does the state come in at?

In the past 3 recruiting cycles:

Utah has not produced a 5* athlete
They have, however, produced as many as 8- 4* players in a single year
Utah averages 6- 4* players each season
Utah also averages 5- high 3* players.

According to my analysis, Utah actually OVER produces talent by +9% relative to its population. Utah produces on average 11, or 1.1% of the total top 1K players while the state makes up just 1.01% of the nation's population.

Utah actually ranks #1 in the entire west region made up of these 11 states: CA, WA, OR, ID, MT, WY, CO, HI, NV, AK.

To be clear, Utah obviously doesn't produce the MOST talent, just the most relative to it's population, or what it "should be producing". This makes me feel like Utah, as a state, has a strong football culture. And living here much/most of my 40+ years, I would agree with that.

Now as I'm sure most of you would guess, California is the top producer in the west, and you're correct. Here is California's data below:

California has 39.237 million residents, is the most populous state and makes up 11.82% of the total US population (~332 million currently) 1 in roughly 8.5 people in the country live there. This means, that proportionally, CA should be producing just under 12% of the top 1000 recruits annually (or roughly 118 top-1000 players, each season). Where does CA come in at?

During the past 3 recruiting cycles:

CA has produced 1.67- 5* athletes per year, with a high of 3 in a single season, and a low of 1. So they've at least produced a 5* athlete every year since 2021.
CA averages 31- 4* players each recruiting cycle
CA also averages 49- high 3* players each year

Total top 1K= ~81, meaning 37 fewer players than the 118 that it should be producing relative to its population. In short, CA UNDERproduces by -31%. What's crazy, is that California at a -31% actually ranks 3rd best proportionally. What does that say about football in the West in general? It's definitely not Friday Night Lights country, except maybe for Utah.

This might also be why the PAC12 is slowly dying, because although a lot of talent is still coming out of the state, it seems to be waning. It's still a recruiting hotbed in terms of total number, but it's not keeping up with other areas of the country. So which states are producing in the west?

Here's a ranking of the western region based on highest producing relative to population to lowest along with average 5,4 and 3* players produced each year:

1. Utah +9% Over producing
0- 5*
6- 4*
5- 3*
Total: 11 annual Top1K recruits

2. Hawaii 0% aka even (aka produces exactly what it should relative to population)
0- 5*
2- 4*
2.3- 3*
Total: 4.33 annual Top1K recruits

3. Nevada -12% Under
0.33- 5*
4.67- 4*
3.33- 3*
Total: 8.33 annual Top1K recruits

4. California -31% Under
1.67- 5*
31.00- 4*
48.67- 3*
Total: 81.33 annual Top1K recruits

5. Washington -59% Under
1.33- 5*
5.33- 4*
8.00- 3*
Total: 14.67 annual Top1K recruits

6. Colorado -68% Under
0.00- 5*
2.33- 4*
3.33- 3*
Total: 5.67 annual Top1K recruits

Note on Colorado. Despite having 2.5 Million people more than Utah (5.8M vs 3.3M), it produces HALF the top 1K talent on an annual basis-- Do we really want the U of Colo in the B12? ...honest question. I think these numbers say something culturally about each state, if the B12 is looking to build the strongest conference possible.

7. Oregon -71% Under
0.00- 5*
1.67- 4*
2.00- 3*
Total: 3.67 annual Top1K recruits

8. Idaho -77% Under
0.00- 5*
0.67- 4*
0.67- 3*
Total: 1.33 annual Top1K recruits

9. Montana -80% Under
0.00- 5*
0.00- 4*
0.67- 3*
Total: 0.67 annual Top1K recruits

10 & 11. Alaska and Wyoming are both at 0. They have small population bases and Alaska is far removed from everyone else, so this makes sense.

As a region, the West UNDER preforms by -37% relative to its population, but there are regions that OVER preform by 72% and 43%... which are they?

...This post is getting really long, so I'm going to cut it off here and then create another post maybe later this evening and further break out the regions and then take that into Conference footprints (aka, which states should the B12 want to move into).

If you've actually read to this point, I commend you, haha, but let me know if this is interesting at all, because it does take quite a bit of time to compile this and I want to make sure it's being seen...

Go to part 2: https://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=31076826