Hey everyone, here is my second installment of analysis on the football culture and the best recruiting areas in the US w/ data backing why the B12 should add schools in certain regions/states moving forward.

My main reason for compiling this, is to get another data point when determining which actual schools should be added into the B12 instead of simply using TV market sizes. I know the viewership is what ultimately makes the money for the conferences, but how people consume their entertainment is evolving so rapidly over the past 5-10 years, I don't think TV market size means what it used to with all the cord cutting going on and seemingly endless streaming options to pull people away from traditional programing and numb everyones minds, ha.

Anyway, without getting too far off topic, I wanted to see if there was another determining factor I could quantify culturally across the various states and regions to give us an idea of how much specific football interest exists in each region/state. I came to the conclusion that it's how many kids are growing up, being developed into top players and coming out of specific areas and then comparing it proportionally against their populations relative to the total US population and seeing if they're over or under "producing" football talent.

This assessment doesn't quantify the quality of talent, just the raw numbers, meaning that a 5* player is weighted equally to a 3* player, i.e. a single person, just as long as both are consider in the top 1000 players that are in a recruiting cycle each year.

With that said, I wrote up a pretty lengthy explanation yesterday describing everything that I was looking for and how I structured it so I won't go into all that detail again here, but if you'd like to read it, this is the link below to Part One:

https://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=31073028

Link to Quick Data List (short attention spans 😉 )
https://www.cougarboard.com/board/message.html?id=31078637

To start off, I'm going to recap what I ended on in the first post so you have analysis of all the regions of the US in a single thread. Here are the regions I have included:

Western Region consisting of:
California
Washington
Colorado
Oregon
Utah
Nevada
Idaho
Hawaii
Montana
Alaska
Wyoming

Southwest Region made up of:
Texas
Arizona
Oklahoma
New Mexico

Northeast Region:
New York
Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Massachusetts
Maryland
Connecticut
New Hampshire
Maine
Rhode Island
Delaware
Washington DC
Vermont

Midwest Region:
Illinois
Ohio
Michigan
Indiana
Missouri
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Kansas
Nebraska
S. Dakota
N. Dakota

Southeast Region:
Florida
Georgia
North Carolina
Virginia
Tennessee
South Carolina
Alabama
Louisiana
Kentucky
Arkansas
Mississippi
West Virginia



Starting off, here's a recap of the Western Region analysis below:

This is a ranking of the WESTERN region with the highest talent producing states relative to population vs lowest producing, along with average number of 5*,4* and 3* players that come out of each state, each year:

1. Utah +9% OVER producing. Utah is the only state that produces more football prospects relative to its population in the entire western third of the country. Pretty impressive and I feel this with the buzz and energy in the Fall. I love it and I think that's why we have some of the most passionate fan bases anywhere.

Utah recruit averages:
0- 5*
6- 4*
5- 3*
Total: 11 annual Top1K recruits annually

2. Hawaii 0% aka even (aka produces exactly what it should relative to population)
0- 5*
2- 4*
2.3- 3*
Total: 4.33 annual Top1K recruits

3. Nevada -12% UNDER Producing
0.33- 5*
4.67- 4*
3.33- 3*
Total: 8.33 annual Top1K recruits

4. California -31% UNDER Producing, however it still has the highest volume of recruits in the West each year, which shouldn’t be surprising.
1.67- 5*
31.00- 4*
48.67- 3*
Total: 81.33 annual Top1K recruits

5. Washington -59% Under
1.33- 5*
5.33- 4*
8.00- 3*
Total: 14.67 annual Top1K recruits

6. Colorado -68% Under
0.00- 5*
2.33- 4*
3.33- 3*
Total: 5.67 annual Top1K recruits

Note on Colorado. Despite having 2.5 Million people more than Utah (5.8M vs 3.3M), it produces HALF the top 1K talent on an annual basis-- Do we really want the U of Colo in the B12? ...honest question. I think these numbers say something culturally about each state, if the B12 is looking to build the strongest conference possible.

7. Oregon -71% Under
0.00- 5*
1.67- 4*
2.00- 3*
Total: 3.67 annual Top1K recruits

8. Idaho -77% Under
0.00- 5*
0.67- 4*
0.67- 3*
Total: 1.33 annual Top1K recruits

9. Montana -80% Under
0.00- 5*
0.00- 4*
0.67- 3*
Total: 0.67 annual Top1K recruits

10 & 11. Alaska and Wyoming are both at 0. They have small population bases and Alaska is far removed from everyone else, so this makes sense.

As a region, the West UNDER preforms by -37% relative to its population. There are 69 million people in this region, making up nearly 21% of the US population, yet they collectively produce just 13% of the the total number of top 1,000 prospects.

3.33- 5* players come out of the west each year
53.67- 4* recruits each year
74- high 3* players
Total- 131 on average per year over the past 3 recruiting cycles/years



Next up, SOUTHWEST...

1. Texas +72% Over producing relative to the state's population (Texas makes up 8.9% of US population but produces 15.3% of the top 1K recruits)
7- 5*
54.67- 4*
91.33- 3*
Total: 153 annual Top1K recruits

2. Oklahoma +33% Over producing
0- 5*
6.33- 4*
9.67- 3*
Total: 16 annual Top1K recruits

3. Arizona -29% Under producing
0.33- 5*
7.00- 4*
8.33- 3*
Total: 15.67 annual Top1K recruits

4. New Mexico has not produced a single top 1,000 prospect during the past 3 recruiting cycles. This was interesting to me considering the state has over 2 million residents. Any CBers from New Mexico to give any insight on what the football culture is like down there?

As a region, the Southwest OVER preforms by -43% relative to its population. There are about 43 million people in this region (mostly in TX) which is the smallest in my analysis, making up just 13% of the US population. Collectively the SW region produces 18.5% of the the total number of top 1,000 prospects.

7.33- 5* players come out of the southwest each year
68.00- 4* recruits each year
109.33- high 3* players
Total- 184.67 on average per year over the past 3 recruiting cycles/years



NORTHEAST, you're up next:

1. Washington DC +65% OVER producing. I found this very interesting and caught me off guard a little. DC only has 670K people (just .2% of the US population) not much larger than Wyoming, however, they produce substantially more top end talent than their population would indicate. Notably, Caleb Williams within the past few years. As you'll see, this is an anomaly for the Northeast. What's in the DC water?
0.67- 5*
1- 4*
1.67- 3*
Total: 3.33 annual Top1K recruits

2. Maryland +18 OVER production. Mainly, once again in the DC area, Maryland is the only full state with an over production of top football talent in the Northeast region. Apparently they like football in the DC metro (Virginia included, however, I categorized VA as part of the Southeast).
0.67- 5*
10- 4*
11.3- 3*
Total: 22 annual Top1K recruits

3. Pennsylvania -41% Under production
1.00- 5*
9.33- 4*
12.67- 3*
Total: 23 annual Top1K recruits

4. New Jersey -31% Under
0.00- 5*
5.67- 4*
10.33- 3*
Total: 16 annual Top1K recruits

5. Connecticut -54% Under - Does Yormark really want UCONN in the B12? Doesn't seem like a big FB culture state. All in all, the NE seems like more of a BBall culture... thoughts?
0.00- 5*
1.67- 4*
3.33- 3*
Total: 5 annual Top1K recruits

6. Massachusetts -64% Under
0.67- 5*
2.33- 4*
4.67- 3*
Total: 7.67 annual Top1K recruits

7. Delaware -67% Under
0.00- 5*
0.00- 4*
1.00- 3*
Total: 1.00 annual Top1K recruits

8. Rhode Island -90% Under
0.00- 5*
0.00- 4*
0.33- 3*
Total: 0.33 annual Top1K recruits. So only 1 top 1000, every three years

9. New York -94% UNDER... guys, this was probably the most shocking stat I uncovered during this... New freeeakin York, 4th most populous state in the Union coming in just after Florida, only produces 3 top 1K players per year. What is going on up there?? Do you NYers hate football? You more Hockey guys or BBall? I'd love to dig into this more. In short, NY makes up 6% of the US population but can only muster up 0.33% of the top 1000 recruits each year
0.00- 5*
1.00- 4*
2.33- 3*
Total: 3.33 annual Top1K recruits

10, 11 & 12. New Hampshire, Maine and Vermont have not produced a single top 1K player over the past 3 years.

As a region, the Northeast UNDER preforms by -58% relative to its population, by far the worst region in the country. There are 65 million people in the NE, making up 19.5% of the US population, yet they collectively produce just 8.17% of the the total number of top 1,000 prospects each year.

3.00- 5* players come out of the northeast each year
31.00- 4* recruits each year
47.67- high 3* players
Total- 81.67 on average per year over the past 3 recruiting cycles/years



What you got, MIDWEST??

1. Iowa +32% OVER producing... Never knew Iowa was such a talent producing powerhouse (relatively speaking vs. the SE) but it takes number 1 spot of the Midwestern states
0- 5*
6- 4*
5- 3*
Total: 12.67 annual Top1K recruits

2. Nebraska 24% OVER producing. Not surprising given Nebraska's program history and a state of less than 2M people (1.963) is able to sell out an 85K stadium 389 consecutive games dating back to 1962. That is nearly 5% of the entire state attending a home game on any given Saturday which would be the equivalent of BYU filling a 165K person stadium every home game since about a decade before LaVell took the helm at BYU.
0- 5*
2.67- 4*
4.67- 3*
Total: 7.33 annual Top1K recruits

3. Missouri +4% OVER producing. One of just 3 states overproducing in the Midwest.
0.33- 5*
4.67- 4*
3.33- 3*
Total: 8.33 annual Top1K recruits

4. Ohio -6% Under producing, but is the highest volume producer of recruits in the midwest
1.33- 5*
11.00- 4*
21.00- 3*
Total: 33.33 annual Top1K recruits

5. Indiana -19% Under producing
0.00- 5*
6.00- 4*
10.67- 3*
Total: 16.67 annual Top1K recruits

6. Kansas -21% Under producing
0.00- 5*
2.0- 4*
5.00- 3*
Total: 7.00 annual Top1K recruits

7. Michigan -25% Under producing, but the second highest volume producer in the midwest
1.00- 5*
9.00- 4*
12.67- 3*
Total: 22.67 annual Top1K recruits

8. Illinois -45% Under
0.33- 5*
6.67- 4*
14.00- 3*
Total: 21.00 annual Top1K recruits

9. South Dakota -51% Under producing
0.00- 5*
0.67- 4*
0.67- 3*
Total: 1.33 annual Top1K recruits

10. North Dakota -57% Under producing
0.00- 5*
0.67- 4*
0.67- 3*
Total: 1.33 annual Top1K recruits

11. Minnesota -61% Under producing
0.00- 5*
3.67- 4*
3.00- 3*
Total: 6.67 annual Top1K recruits

12. Wisconsin -68% Under producing, worst among the midwestern states. This was kind of surprising to me given the history of the Green Bay Packers and Wisconsin football... Wisconsin has nearly 6 million residents (almost double Utah) and produces half the players that Utah sends out on an annual basis. Seems like a strong football culture state, but at least my data shows otherwise as a whole.
0.00- 5*
2.67- 4*
3.00- 3*
Total: 5.67 annual Top1K recruits

As a region, the MIDWEST UNDER preforms by -25% relative to its population, but ranks 3rd out of the 5 regions. There are 69 million people in this region (almost identical to the WEST), making up nearly 21% of the US population. Collectively the region puts out 15.4% of the the total number of top 1,000 prospects.

3.33- 5* players come out of the midwest each year
55.67- 4* recruits each year
94.67- high 3* players
Total- 155 on average per year over the past 3 recruiting cycles/years

Now it's time to get into the hot bed of CFB recruiting, which I'm sure is not a surprise to anyone-- it's the Southeast. However, of this region, which of the states is the true #1 champ proportionally to the state population, and dare I say, The King of Football Culture? ...some of these numbers are staggering relative to population. I'm going to switch it up on the SE region and actually rank this list from last to first



The SOUTHEAST

12. West Virginia -75% UNDER produces... Interesting to me that WV became a power conference since they have to import nearly all their talent. Likely comes from an overproduction in neighboring Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
0.00- 5*
0.67- 4*
0.67- 3*
Total: 1.33 annual Top1K recruits

11. Kentucky -39% UNDER producing. Would the B12 want Louisville? Especially since the majority of top talent would prob choose U of Kentucky/SEC over Louisville? Just a question...
0.00- 5*
2.67- 4*
5.67- 3*
Total: 8.33 annual Top1K recruits

10. South Carolina -17% Under producing. Somewhat interesting to me, given Clemson and S. Carolina are both solid to top CFB programs. Obviously there are many other areas of the SE they can pull from, but to have 2 strong P5 programs, and not be able to rely on home grown talent is notable. With that said, they do create on average 1- 5* player each year.
1.00- 5*
3.33- 4*
8.67- 3*
Total: 13.00 annual Top1K recruits

9. Arkansas -9% UNDER producing. For being in the South, having an SEC team and just slightly less population than Utah, Arkansas doesn't really produce the talent one might think...
0.00- 5*
2.67- 4*
8.33- 3*
Total: 32.33annual Top1K recruits

8. North Carolina +2% OVER producing. About where it should be, but surprisingly average from what my expectation was prior to mining the data.
1.00- 5*
16.00- 4*
15.33- 3*
Total: 32.33annual Top1K recruits

7. Virginia +6% OVER producing.
1.00- 5*
10.00- 4*
16.67- 3*
Total: 27.67 annual Top1K recruits

...OK, now get ready for the top dawgs:

7. Tennessee +40% OVER producing... Does the B12 think about adding Memphis? New markets, very fast growing state and a lot of talent comes out of TN. Does the B12 seize on this?
0.67- 5*
10.67- 4*
18.00- 3*
Total: 29.33 annual Top1K recruits

5. Florida +100% OVER producing. This single state produces almost 25% of ALL 5* players each year, and 13.1% of ALL the top recruits on an annual basis. Only Texas outdoes Florida in total number of recruits, but it requires nearly 50% more residents than FL to do so. This makes Florida the top (combo of total volume + proportional) ...recruit producer of the "Big 3" recruiting hotbeds (CA, TX, FL). Would you have thought this before reading this analysis? That said, there are states that are raising up nearly 200% of what their population would indicate a little further up the list... keep reading.
7.67- 5*
56.00- 4*
67.67- 3*
Total: 131.33 annual Top1K recruits

4. Mississippi +129% OVER producer. No wonder they can support 2 solid SEC programs with less than 3 million total residents (fewer than Utah, Iowa, Arkansas, Nevada)
0.33- 5*
8.00- 4*
12.00- 3*
Total: 20.33 annual Top1K recruits

3. Alabama +152% OVER producing. 2 SEC powerhouses keep well stocked just from homegrown talent, however, Alabama goes after whoever they want after they cherry pick all the best talent from one of the top producing states in the country.
2.00- 5*
15.33- 4*
21.00- 3*
Total: 38.33 annual Top1K recruits

2. Louisiana +175% OVER producing. This was a surprise to me. I mean, I know they love LSU down there, but should the B12 consider Tulane given these data?? To put this into context, Louisiana puts out nearly 10X the talent as a similarly populated state (Oregon) produces annually... I think Louisiana would be a huge add for the B12, especially since culturally, they are all probably similar. And who wouldnt want to go see some games down in New Orleans on a regular basis?
1.33- 5*
14.67- 4*
22.33- 3*
Total: 38.33 annual Top1K recruits

And here it is.... the TOP DAAAWG (literally)

1. Georgia +195% OVER producing. Georgia is a football powerhouse state, in all aspects and may be ground zero for football culture in the US (sooooo, why do the Falcons always suck?? haha, jk Allgeier is going to be their savior). Georgia pumps out almost twice as many top 1K talent than their population proportionally (GA is only 3.25% of the US population, but puts out 9.6% of all top 1K recruits annually. For context, Georgia has nearly 20% MORE total top 1000 CFB prospects than California with roughly 75% LESS people!!! Incredible. No wonder Georgia is on a trajectory to stay on top and all these kids can stay home for the most part. The B12 needs to pick up a Georgia school (Georgia Tech when the ACC blows up) ...and cash in on a huge new TV market and huge cultural aspect that football plays in this state. If BYU played down in Georgia every other year, that would raise their recruiting visibility massively and likely factor in favorably to future recruiting efforts.
Here are the numbers:
3.33- 5*
37.67- 4*
55.00- 3*
Total: 96.00 annual Top1K recruits

As a region, the SOUTHEAST OVER preforms collectively by +72% relative to its population. There are nearly 86 million people in this region making it the most populous region in my analysis, accounting for just under 26% of the US population. Collectively the region puts out 44.5% of all the top 1,000 prospects each year.

18.33- 5* players come out of the southeast each year (over HALF the total 5* prospects come out of this area each year)
177.67- 4* recruits each year
248.67- high 3* players
Total- 444.67 total top recruits come of of the Southeast on average per year over the past 3 recruiting cycles/years

The South is king.... but we all knew this. BYU needs to be able to integrate itself more there. That is why i think UCF is a HUGE pickup for the B12. If somehow the B12 could swing either Miami of Florida St when the ACC blows up, that would be a coup for the conference.

Anyway, this is installment #2 of my Recruiting/Realignment analysis... tell me what you think. Hope you found it interesting. I will have a 3rd installment that brings in TV Market Sizes and combines it with this recruiting data/cultural and go over which schools should be top targets for the B12 (hint, it's not PAC12 schools)