He gives survival a -5.5 pt or a 33% chance of imploding. Being less than a TD favorite to survive isn't exuding a ton of confidence right now.

The longer this draws out the more pessemistic Wilner is becoming. The delays suggest there are mutliple real issues going on that should surprise no one. Despite the B1G being a no-go on expansion and UCLA's return out of the question, they still have no deal. It's clear Washington and Oregon do not want to sign a GOR and want out-clauses to clear their potential exit path. However, this also kills any negotiation with TV.

GK will need to balance that and "come up with something" to present to the PAC schools, but if it's acceptable or not is another matter. IMO if he hit their number ($350M+) a deal would be signed. I don't think he's got close to that number even with everyone signing a GOR. Without a longterm committment from WA/OR I think he's likely seeing a number below the $380M ($31.7M/school) the B12 is getting. Maybe a few million below per school. And then you will likely add a couple G5 schools (with SDSU demanding to come in at a full-share) that pie gets sliced up even more.

Does a few million bucks get Washington or Oregon to move to the B12? Wilner thinks that's a non-starter since it would barely cover travel cost increases (debatable). But he didn't ask how this would affect the four-corner schools. They're using a much different survival calculus than WA/OR who are buying time for the B1G.

It sounds like not everyone is happy with the "urgency" GK is using in this process and schools may give more consideration to conference realignment (see: B12) than was previously thought, as this drags on. Wilner seems to suggest that if a deal is not signed by March then all bets are off.