Principles, life ain’t about $. I don’t bet.

Oct 24, 2024
9:16:44am

HeyU Intervention Needed

Plus the reversion to the mean can happen at anytime. Should I invest in gme at $300? I wouldn’t.

Twain

It ain’t what a man don’t know that gets him in trouble it’s what he knows for sure that just ain’t so.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Oct 24, 2024 at 9:16:44am

Message modified by HeyU on Oct 24, 2024 at 9:18:00am

Message modified by HeyU on Oct 24, 2024 at 9:22:26am

Message modified by HeyU on Oct 24, 2024 at 9:23:47am

Message modified by HeyU on Oct 24, 2024 at 9:25:48am

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HeyU

Bio page: HeyU
Joined: Sep 5, 2020
Last login: Oct 24, 2024
Total posts: 899 (0 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Something is off if a #11 ranked team is not favored against an unranked team.

TheNerd

Oct 23, 3:09pm

Vegas and the computers don't seem to like BYU. We had our biggest spread last

BYUheaven

Oct 23, 3:10pm

What's not to like? We're 6-1 against the spread.

CougarTwins

Oct 23, 3:11pm

I am aware....we killed the spread the first 6 games and then they gave us the

BYUheaven

Oct 23, 3:18pm

Call me crazy, but I believe it comes down to Vegas/media not…

xgbs

Oct 23, 9:09pm

This will be me after BYU wins on Saturday

cougarmeister

Oct 23, 3:12pm

I think you are on to something - but maybe we're both paranoid

StoneyCurtis

Oct 23, 7:16pm

Agreed--we're the only ranked team playing on the road against a lower ranked

LosAlcoug

Oct 23, 3:14pm

Vegas’ goal isn’t to predict the outcome of games. Its goal is to get 50% of the money on Team A and 50% of the money

RealTaysomHill

Oct 23, 3:17pm

Correction: Vegas' goal is to make money.

CascadeBYUFan

Oct 23, 3:39pm

Right but having 50 percent of action on

NYCougz

Oct 23, 3:45pm

And they do that by bringing in relatively even money on both sides of a bet.

russkiejedi

Oct 23, 4:14pm

Well yeah. That’s like me saying “Five Guys tries to make good food” and you saying “actually they’re trying to make $”

RealTaysomHill

Oct 23, 4:55pm

If I understand this correctly BYU would always be rated worse because they

HeyU

Oct 23, 4:21pm

You did not understand correctly

RealTaysomHill

Oct 23, 4:42pm

What I’m saying is BYU has the fewest fans that bet and a majority of fans bet

HeyU

Oct 23, 5:03pm

I disagree that a majority of fans bet on their favorite team. I would bet that 95% of people gambling on a given game

RealTaysomHill

Oct 23, 5:06pm

Even if you’re right, don’t you think a systematic 5% difference would result in

chilawcoug

Oct 23, 10:35pm

Initially sure that is possible, but professional gamblers would have picked up

Ozymandias

12:50am

I disagree. I think it makes a difference hence this convo

HeyU

7:22am

If you truly believe this, why have you not wagered.

Ozymandias

9:11am

Principles, life ain’t about $. I don’t bet.

HeyU

9:16am

I agree the Twain quote definitely applies to you.

Ozymandias

12:48pm

I’m assuming you’ve been betting and getting burned by BYU all year! A bit salty

HeyU

3:37pm

You are comparing investors to non-bettors

XXL

3:39pm

You don’t get it. I am comparing markets that have a line that moves based on

HeyU

3:50pm

Oh, I finally get it

XXL

4:51pm

That could actually be kind of a thing. I remember reading an article about

DescdentCoug

Oct 23, 9:51pm

Do you think only fans bet on their team?

zsmooth

Oct 23, 5:03pm

Doesn’t have to be only…not sure what your point is

chilawcoug

Oct 23, 10:35pm

My point is that betters bet on who they believe will win, not who they’re a fan of.

zsmooth

1:10pm

^^^ This. Vegas wants money from gamblers. Most BYU fans don’t gamble.

TrueBlue58

Oct 23, 7:13pm

Plus the BYU fan base is less likely to gamble than the general population

Blue chunks

Oct 23, 8:08pm

First, Vegas doesn't use voter polls when setting an initial spread

Indy Coug

Oct 23, 3:21pm

BYU's good. UCF was supposed to be really good – the pieces are there. BYU has

Benfica1

Oct 23, 3:22pm

I won’t bet money on it either because gambling is bad.

m_beav

Oct 23, 6:49pm

If I were to bet, I would bet against BYU. That way, win or lose, I’m happy.

Boring

Oct 23, 9:43pm

Those that know the records of teams that travel 2 time zones know there are

rcbyufan

Oct 23, 3:24pm

Oregon's win against Purdue bucks the 2 time zone rule. Washington holds serve

rcbyufan

Oct 23, 3:32pm

Miami's near loss to Cal supports the rule because that game should not have even been close.

scall

Oct 23, 3:36pm

There's just something about it. The breakup of the Pac 12 is going to give us

rcbyufan

Oct 23, 3:49pm

It's going to be fascinating to watch really.

scall

Oct 23, 3:55pm

That's a fair point, so rankings should have an asterisk to indicate that it is

TheNerd

Oct 23, 3:33pm

I'm just saying that gamblers seem to know about this "rule". Home team gets

rcbyufan

Oct 23, 3:37pm

I also think that BYU getting an extra day (played last Friday) is a big deal

rcbyufan

Oct 23, 3:41pm

Vegas does a pretty amazing job, I don’t know if it’s five old guys setting the

RC Vikings

Oct 23, 3:26pm

See #10 Michigan @ unranked Washington earlier this season

CycloneCoug

Oct 23, 3:28pm

Our Stat line isn't great... in fact the 2 stat lines were we are excelling at is Pass Efficienc Defense and Turnovers..

Coug

Oct 23, 3:33pm

So if BYU can exploit turnovers and exploit their weak passing defense then BYU could end up winning this game

DJROSS

Oct 23, 10:21pm

Do you know how often that happens with betting odds?

cougXor

Oct 23, 4:18pm

RE: Something is off if a #11 ranked team is not favored against an unranked

Cbmurphy

Oct 23, 4:18pm

Nothing is off..... You don't gamble.....

cougarmelt

Oct 23, 4:25pm

This. betters move the lines. Vegas can’t lose if it’s equally bet on. -110

Tuskaloosa Cougar

Oct 23, 6:16pm

If you're convinced it's off it seems like easy money to be made 🙂

JupiterJones

Oct 23, 4:47pm

It happens. Reminds me of 2015, when unranked USC was favored against #3 Utah

krindorr

Oct 23, 5:25pm

Dang beat me too it lol

uteman13

Oct 23, 5:30pm

In 2015. #3 Utah played unranked USC and USC was favored. We ended up getting

uteman13

Oct 23, 5:29pm

I actually like it. Anything to keep this team humble and hungry.

Thrill

Oct 23, 5:39pm

<< Deleted >>

phippsd

Oct 23, 5:54pm

AP voters are supposed to vote based on more than who they think is better

phippsd

Oct 23, 6:00pm

Love it. We need the disrespect. 💪🏼🤙🏼 Use it.

APowerfulY

Oct 23, 6:11pm

You see it often in SEC. Ranked teams vs teams with mediocre records can be

Tuskaloosa Cougar

Oct 23, 6:14pm

If it makes no sense, that's easy money for you

XXL

Oct 23, 7:04pm

How dinged up is Jake?

chirocoug

Oct 23, 7:35pm

While I agree with everything you said...

NotoriousBUD

Oct 23, 7:59pm

They disagree and the fact is, Vegas might be right. It's a guess.

Plantagenet

Oct 23, 8:19pm

Easy money then. Place a bet.

Vert der Frick

Oct 23, 8:20pm

BYU fans generally don't bet to even it out.

Blue Ghost

Oct 23, 8:28pm

Vegas doesn't control where the AP ranks each team

archie

Oct 23, 9:17pm

Unless we are able to force multiple turnovers that spot us the ball on the 10 yard line, it will be a battle… our

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