I see that...but honestly don't think we're really in competition with Boise

Nov 21, 2024
3:24:18pm

krindorr Truly Addicted User

Both BYU and Boise St have basically 4 outcomes left this season

Win out, including the CCG
Lose a regular season game, but win the CCG
Win the rest of the regular season, but lose the CCG
Lose 1+ more regular season game, also lose (or fail to make) the CCG

And of those, if #4 happens, neither team has the margin to still be in the playoff mix.

So there's 9 possible scenarios where BYU and Boise St are both in the playoff mix...and in none of them does the quality of Boise's win over UNLV really matter

BYU Scenario -> Boise St Scenario (below)	Scenario 1	Scenario 2	Scenario 3
Scenario 1	Boise is currently ahead, but BYU beating ASU and Colorado (versus Oregon St and Colorado St for Boise) puts BYU ahead	Boise is ahead and stays ahead, BYU only makes playoff due to autobid	Boise likely gets the autobid bye over the Big 12 champ, BYU hopes to sneak in as an at-large (unlikely, but not impossible)
Scenario 2	BYU gets the 4th bye (or maybe even 3rd). Boise still likely makes the playoff as MWC champ (unless Army wins out)	BYU and Boise St both likely make the playoff due to autobid. The Boise loss to Wyoming or Oregon St is worse than the BYU loss to ASU though, so BYU is still ahead and gets the bye over Boise Though Army (if undefeated) could jump both in this scenario	Boise St likely gets the 5th autobid (unless Army wins out) with the non-BYU Big 12 champ as #4, BYU hopes to sneak in as an at-large (unlikely but not impossible)
Scenario 3	Boise St is out, they're not high enough to get an at-large spot (even if they're still higher than the G5 conference champ representative). BYU gets the 3rd or 4th bye	Boise St is out, they're not high enough to get an at-large spot (even if they're still higher than the G5 conference champ representative). BYU gets the 4th bye (unless Army wins out, in which case BYU could miss out on a bye)	Boise St is out, they're not high enough to get an at-large spot (even if they're still higher than the G5 conference champ representative). BYU is probably (but not definitely) also out and hoping to sneak in as an at-large

Point being that in NONE of those scenarios does the BYU/Boise relative order come down to how good UNLV is. We're not really in competition with Boise St. We're in competition with the glut of 7-2 SEC teams, the ACC runner-up, possibly Notre Dame (if they lose again) and possibly Army (if they win out). Plus the Big 12 teams if we lose and need a tiebreak to make the CCG.

It's frustrating to have Boise ahead of us this week, but it will inevitably work itself out and we don't really need to care about Boise.

This message has been modified

Originally posted on Nov 21, 2024 at 3:24:18pm

Message modified by krindorr on Nov 21, 2024 at 3:25:20pm

Message modified by krindorr on Nov 21, 2024 at 3:27:04pm