It really stands that the forecast is reasonably accurate on average, but there

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Oct 30, 2024
2:31:16pm

cougarfan84 Truly Addicted User

It really stands that the forecast is reasonably accurate on average, but there

will be misses for one reason for another. BYU just happens to be a team they (and just about everyone) missed on this year. Considering this season's success will likely play into next season's preseason's expectations, I would expect the expectations to be quite a bit higher for BYU next season (which will make it basically impossible to outperform them at the level they are this year).

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cougarfan84

Bio page: cougarfan84
Joined: Apr 3, 2003
Last login: Oct 30, 2024
Total posts: 20,864 (2,628 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Holy outlier, Batman!

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

8:09am

Kalan’s agent is going to enjoy his extension negotiations this offseason

8:11am

This season has permanently destroyed my ability to moderate expectations.

swingcat

8:12am

The chart is a rotated normal distribution. Just recognize that being out in the tail that far

Indy Coug

8:16am

Thanks for that wet blanket analysis.

acadian8

8:44am

I’m not saying BYU is going to regularly be expected to only win 4-5 games.

Indy Coug

8:47am

Meh. Just enjoy this season for what it is.

BleedCougarBlue2

9:32am

It's obvious the predictive model missed big time. It continues to do so each

Socrates Johnson

9:52am

I think this is more of a BYU was better last year, but they were going through

Cougar TD

10:09am

Yes there is, at least for a few years. That would happen if the media and polls continue to underestimate BYU

11:03am

If BYU makes the CFP, expectations will be much higher in 2025.

acadian8

12:19pm

It really stands that the forecast is reasonably accurate on average, but there

cougarfan84

2:31pm

By analogy to another form of "football", BYU was in the College Cup last year

Archaea

3:15pm

Coach of the Year

Coog4Life

8:15am

I see 2 outliers

yorksama

8:16am

Whoever "owns" the "UU" logo there sure did a good job pumping themselves up...

Brandoblueblood

9:19am

Nice bell(-ish) curve.

8:18am

I think they had to expand their chart just to fit us on. Oh...and FSU.

BlueKarma

8:18am

Think about this: BYU is further from expectations and is FSU.

cvd6262

8:26am

What a great chart

cmoney

8:24am

Why is anyone surprised by Wazzu? They are playing a G5 schedule

willkie40

8:31am

LOL FSU!

8:34am

This is one of the most amazing graphs I ‘ve seen. It perfectly encapsulates…

8:38am

I can't see Florida State or BYU. . . Nevermind I had to Zoom out, A LOT!

Zoobieman

8:41am

So when BYU gets to 16 wins, they'll break this chart, correct?

thewaterboy

8:49am

Florida St. LOL

Lifer

8:52am

The expectations were more based on "sentiment" than actual data.

Brandoblueblood

9:08am

No, these expectations are based on data. The models have been calibrated based on historical results for 1,000s of

Indy Coug

9:44am

The fact that they are so slow to ignore the new reality seems a big weakness-

10:05am

This is such a good model and post

stansburycoug

10:05am

Ah, I see; I assumed it was expectations per the Big12 media days.

Brandoblueblood

11:08am

Why do BYU fans have such a persecution complex. These things arent perfect but

stansburycoug

11:26am

The OP shows data that BYU was significantly underestimated

Brandoblueblood

2:02pm

True or false - FPI uses prior year results in current season rating.

acadian8

12:21pm

Reasonable here is based on data: BYU expected to roughly match 2023. Utah

NYC and Japan

10:13am

Interesting that 6 of BYU's opponents (AZ, UU, WY, OSU, KA, UCF) - are in the bottom 13 on this chart. We've played 4

Zenoch

9:10am

We should be more surprised by our success than FSU is by their lack of it?

Socrates Johnson

9:51am

Expectation was 4.5 wins by most systems, Vegas... You probably expected better

NYC and Japan

12:14pm

yeah the expectation of improvement was obvious to me. Not to the computers I

Socrates Johnson

12:48pm

Looking at where all Big 12 teams ends up

krindorr

10:14am

Doubters beware...

SinkingQuffa

10:21am

Living in a world with an N of 1.

cb1kenobi

10:47am

wow, gotta give our coaches a raise!

Hill4Heisman

10:49am

I know, right? FSU is SO bad.

Dwide_Schrude

10:54am

Our coaches have been so under-appreciated by our fans. The offensive staff and

Reasonable1

11:06am

The takeaway from this was Utah was supposed to be 6-2, not 8-0.

Boring

11:30am

Love to see Utah drop another tier or two........

11:39am

Dont worry, Utah will drift even lower. Maybe into the +5 (on underachievers)

niqmadu

12:18pm

Not the best thing really. We need to change public opinion about BYU

SV72 Sale

12:40pm

The team is well on the way to changing expectations.

Reasonable1

2:17pm

It is the best thing really. How else would you want to change perception other

niqmadu

2:24pm

The key will be to sustain it over time. Lots of teams rise up and have one or

Japan Coug

3:56pm

Yes, the key will be to retain coaching talent and sustain recruiting gains.

Reasonable1

4:04pm

Poor FSU, ha ha ha. And nice to see Utah 2 under already.

3:01pm

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