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Oct 30, 2024
12:18
:06
pm
niqmadu
All-American
Dont worry, Utah will drift even lower. Maybe into the +5 (on underachievers)
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niqmadu
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niqmadu
Joined
Jan 14, 2010
Last login
Oct 30, 2024
Total posts
2,824 (4 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
Holy outlier, Batman!
Indy Coug
Loquacious Lummox
8:09am
Kalan’s agent is going to enjoy his extension negotiations this offseason
CougarCanuck76
8:11am
This season has permanently destroyed my ability to moderate expectations.
swingcat
8:12am
The chart is a rotated normal distribution. Just recognize that being out in the tail that far
Indy Coug
8:16am
Thanks for that wet blanket analysis.
acadian8
8:44am
I’m not saying BYU is going to regularly be expected to only win 4-5 games.
Indy Coug
8:47am
Meh. Just enjoy this season for what it is.
BleedCougarBlue2
9:32am
It's obvious the predictive model missed big time. It continues to do so each
Socrates Johnson
9:52am
I think this is more of a BYU was better last year, but they were going through
Cougar TD
10:09am
Yes there is, at least for a few years. That would happen if the media and polls continue to underestimate BYU
BYU Tar Heel
11:03am
If BYU makes the CFP, expectations will be much higher in 2025.
acadian8
12:19pm
It really stands that the forecast is reasonably accurate on average, but there
cougarfan84
2:31pm
By analogy to another form of "football", BYU was in the College Cup last year
Archaea
3:15pm
Coach of the Year
Coog4Life
8:15am
I see 2 outliers
yorksama
8:16am
Whoever "owns" the "UU" logo there sure did a good job pumping themselves up...
Brandoblueblood
9:19am
Nice bell(-ish) curve.
Kilgore Trout
8:18am
I think they had to expand their chart just to fit us on. Oh...and FSU.
BlueKarma
8:18am
Think about this: BYU is further from expectations and is FSU.
cvd6262
8:26am
What a great chart
cmoney
8:24am
Why is anyone surprised by Wazzu? They are playing a G5 schedule
willkie40
8:31am
LOL FSU!
WillsPitStop
8:34am
This is one of the most amazing graphs I ‘ve seen. It perfectly encapsulates…
BluesBrother
8:38am
I can't see Florida State or BYU. . . Nevermind I had to Zoom out, A LOT!
Zoobieman
8:41am
So when BYU gets to 16 wins, they'll break this chart, correct?
thewaterboy
8:49am
Florida St. LOL
Lifer
8:52am
The expectations were more based on "sentiment" than actual data.
Brandoblueblood
9:08am
No, these expectations are based on data. The models have been calibrated based on historical results for 1,000s of
Indy Coug
9:44am
The fact that they are so slow to ignore the new reality seems a big weakness-
BeyondTheMark
10:05am
This is such a good model and post
stansburycoug
10:05am
Ah, I see; I assumed it was expectations per the Big12 media days.
Brandoblueblood
11:08am
Why do BYU fans have such a persecution complex. These things arent perfect but
stansburycoug
11:26am
The OP shows data that BYU was significantly underestimated
Brandoblueblood
2:02pm
True or false - FPI uses prior year results in current season rating.
acadian8
12:21pm
Reasonable here is based on data: BYU expected to roughly match 2023. Utah
NYC and Japan
10:13am
Interesting that 6 of BYU's opponents (AZ, UU, WY, OSU, KA, UCF) - are in the bottom 13 on this chart. We've played 4
Zenoch
9:10am
We should be more surprised by our success than FSU is by their lack of it?
Socrates Johnson
9:51am
Expectation was 4.5 wins by most systems, Vegas... You probably expected better
NYC and Japan
12:14pm
yeah the expectation of improvement was obvious to me. Not to the computers I
Socrates Johnson
12:48pm
Looking at where all Big 12 teams ends up
krindorr
10:14am
Doubters beware...
SinkingQuffa
10:21am
Living in a world with an N of 1.
cb1kenobi
10:47am
wow, gotta give our coaches a raise!
Hill4Heisman
10:49am
I know, right? FSU is SO bad.
Dwide_Schrude
10:54am
Our coaches have been so under-appreciated by our fans. The offensive staff and
Reasonable1
11:06am
The takeaway from this was Utah was supposed to be 6-2, not 8-0.
Boring
11:30am
Love to see Utah drop another tier or two........
GideonsTrumpet
11:39am
Dont worry, Utah will drift even lower. Maybe into the +5 (on underachievers)
niqmadu
12:18pm
Not the best thing really. We need to change public opinion about BYU
SV72 Sale
12:40pm
The team is well on the way to changing expectations.
Reasonable1
2:17pm
It is the best thing really. How else would you want to change perception other
niqmadu
2:24pm
The key will be to sustain it over time. Lots of teams rise up and have one or
Japan Coug
3:56pm
Yes, the key will be to retain coaching talent and sustain recruiting gains.
Reasonable1
4:04pm
Poor FSU, ha ha ha. And nice to see Utah 2 under already.
Blue for Life
3:01pm
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