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Oct 30, 2024
11:08
:31
am
Brandoblueblood
Playmaker
Ah, I see; I assumed it was expectations per the Big12 media days.
So what model was used to create the "expectations," Kelly Ford's own?
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Oct 30, 2024 at 11:08:31am
Message modified by Brandoblueblood on Oct 30, 2024 at 11:09:14am
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Brandoblueblood
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Brandoblueblood
Joined
Nov 20, 2020
Last login
Dec 26, 2024
Total posts
3,639 (1 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
Holy outlier, Batman!
Indy Coug
Loquacious Lummox
Oct 30, 8:09am
Kalan’s agent is going to enjoy his extension negotiations this offseason
CougarCanuck76
Oct 30, 8:11am
This season has permanently destroyed my ability to moderate expectations.
swingcat
Oct 30, 8:12am
The chart is a rotated normal distribution. Just recognize that being out in the tail that far
Indy Coug
Oct 30, 8:16am
Thanks for that wet blanket analysis.
acadian8
Oct 30, 8:44am
I’m not saying BYU is going to regularly be expected to only win 4-5 games.
Indy Coug
Oct 30, 8:47am
Meh. Just enjoy this season for what it is.
BleedCougarBlue2
Oct 30, 9:32am
It's obvious the predictive model missed big time. It continues to do so each
Socrates Johnson
Oct 30, 9:52am
I think this is more of a BYU was better last year, but they were going through
Cougar TD
Oct 30, 10:09am
Yes there is, at least for a few years. That would happen if the media and polls continue to underestimate BYU
BYU Tar Heel
Oct 30, 11:03am
If BYU makes the CFP, expectations will be much higher in 2025.
acadian8
Oct 30, 12:19pm
It really stands that the forecast is reasonably accurate on average, but there
cougarfan84
Oct 30, 2:31pm
By analogy to another form of "football", BYU was in the College Cup last year
Archaea
Oct 30, 3:15pm
Thx Captain!!
imdocrob
Oct 31, 8:36am
Coach of the Year
Coog4Life
Oct 30, 8:15am
I see 2 outliers
yorksama
Oct 30, 8:16am
Whoever "owns" the "UU" logo there sure did a good job pumping themselves up...
Brandoblueblood
Oct 30, 9:19am
Nice bell(-ish) curve.
Kilgore Trout
Oct 30, 8:18am
I think they had to expand their chart just to fit us on. Oh...and FSU.
BlueKarma
Oct 30, 8:18am
Think about this: BYU is further from expectations and is FSU.
cvd6262
Oct 30, 8:26am
What a great chart
cmoney
Oct 30, 8:24am
Why is anyone surprised by Wazzu? They are playing a G5 schedule
willkie40
Oct 30, 8:31am
LOL FSU!
WillsPitStop
Oct 30, 8:34am
This is one of the most amazing graphs I ‘ve seen. It perfectly encapsulates…
BluesBrother
Oct 30, 8:38am
I can't see Florida State or BYU. . . Nevermind I had to Zoom out, A LOT!
Zoobieman
Oct 30, 8:41am
So when BYU gets to 16 wins, they'll break this chart, correct?
thewaterboy
Oct 30, 8:49am
Florida St. LOL
Lifer
Oct 30, 8:52am
The expectations were more based on "sentiment" than actual data.
Brandoblueblood
Oct 30, 9:08am
No, these expectations are based on data. The models have been calibrated based on historical results for 1,000s of
Indy Coug
Oct 30, 9:44am
The fact that they are so slow to ignore the new reality seems a big weakness-
BeyondTheMark
Oct 30, 10:05am
This is such a good model and post
stansburycoug
Oct 30, 10:05am
Ah, I see; I assumed it was expectations per the Big12 media days.
Brandoblueblood
Oct 30, 11:08am
Why do BYU fans have such a persecution complex. These things arent perfect but
stansburycoug
Oct 30, 11:26am
The OP shows data that BYU was significantly underestimated
Brandoblueblood
Oct 30, 2:02pm
True or false - FPI uses prior year results in current season rating.
acadian8
Oct 30, 12:21pm
Reasonable here is based on data: BYU expected to roughly match 2023. Utah
NYC and Japan
Oct 30, 10:13am
Interesting that 6 of BYU's opponents (AZ, UU, WY, OSU, KA, UCF) - are in the bottom 13 on this chart. We've played 4
Zenoch
Oct 30, 9:10am
We should be more surprised by our success than FSU is by their lack of it?
Socrates Johnson
Oct 30, 9:51am
Expectation was 4.5 wins by most systems, Vegas... You probably expected better
NYC and Japan
Oct 30, 12:14pm
yeah the expectation of improvement was obvious to me. Not to the computers I
Socrates Johnson
Oct 30, 12:48pm
Looking at where all Big 12 teams ends up
krindorr
Oct 30, 10:14am
Doubters beware...
SinkingQuffa
Oct 30, 10:21am
Living in a world with an N of 1.
cb1kenobi
Oct 30, 10:47am
wow, gotta give our coaches a raise!
Hill4Heisman
Oct 30, 10:49am
I know, right? FSU is SO bad.
Dwide_Schrude
Oct 30, 10:54am
Our coaches have been so under-appreciated by our fans. The offensive staff and
Reasonable1
Oct 30, 11:06am
The takeaway from this was Utah was supposed to be 6-2, not 8-0.
Boring
Oct 30, 11:30am
Love to see Utah drop another tier or two........
GideonsTrumpet
Oct 30, 11:39am
Dont worry, Utah will drift even lower. Maybe into the +5 (on underachievers)
niqmadu
Oct 30, 12:18pm
Not the best thing really. We need to change public opinion about BYU
SV72 Sale
Oct 30, 12:40pm
The team is well on the way to changing expectations.
Reasonable1
Oct 30, 2:17pm
It is the best thing really. How else would you want to change perception other
niqmadu
Oct 30, 2:24pm
The key will be to sustain it over time. Lots of teams rise up and have one or
Japan Coug
Oct 30, 3:56pm
Yes, the key will be to retain coaching talent and sustain recruiting gains.
Reasonable1
Oct 30, 4:04pm
Poor FSU, ha ha ha. And nice to see Utah 2 under already.
Blue for Life
Oct 30, 3:01pm
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