Oct 30, 2024
8:16:36am
8:16:36am
The chart is a rotated normal distribution. Just recognize that being out in the tail that far
Is a highly unlikely outcome. That can be unlikely because
1. BYU is very lucky
2. The predictive model, which is reasonably accurate overall, was somehow unable to determine why BYU was going to be 5+ wins better than expected.
I don’t think there’s some unique special sauce that is going to allow BYU to live way out in the tail on a regular basis.
1. BYU is very lucky
2. The predictive model, which is reasonably accurate overall, was somehow unable to determine why BYU was going to be 5+ wins better than expected.
I don’t think there’s some unique special sauce that is going to allow BYU to live way out in the tail on a regular basis.
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Oct 30, 8:16am
Oct 30, 9:32am
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Oct 31, 8:36am
No, these expectations are based on data. The models have been calibrated based on historical results for 1,000s of
Oct 30, 9:44am
Oct 30, 10:05am
Oct 30, 9:51am
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