what happens to those who are 10-2 or 9-3. There is pretty much a 0% chance that an 8-win team gets an at-large bid to the playoff. Most seasons we will likely not see any 9-win teams in the playoff either, though it could happen every now an again. The only time 9-win team would get in ahead of a 10-win team is if the 10-win team has no quality wins (i.e. 2018 when Washington State went 10-2 but had 0 wins against ranked teams). Assuming there are enough 10-win teams to fill the remaining spots I would expect the at-large bids to go to 10-win teams from the SEC and Big 10 first, and then if there are any remaining spots left after that then B12, ACC, and Notre Dame would have a shot for their 10-win teams. Odds of a 10-win team from B12 or ACC getting an at-large bid are probably less than 20% in any given year so it's possible but is less likely.