doesn’t it always works, even if it’s worked the 16 times he’s tried it. If it did, that wouldn’t be a notable stat, but even then, has Stafford only ever run a sneak on 4th and 1? Probably not.

And if he doesn’t ALWAYS run a sneak on 4th and 1, then we’re taking about different factors again. His teams have run other plays requiring the defense to cover receivers, cover multiple gaps and both ends with linemen and backers. That’s very different than allowing the defense to actually know that you’re only going to sneak on 4th and 1.

But I’m even more surprised that you answered “Yes” to Dalton being just as good at the sneak as Hurts. It’s just 100% untrue that all QB’s would be equally effective, and this is known:



Some teams are just not good at it. Payton Manning wasn’t at all. They have negative points added when they run it.

Again, I think you’re making some false assumptions that OC’s aren’t making. And you can’t assume that stats in an environment where defenses have to protect against other plays are at all similar to ones in which every defense knows what the play call is.

It *may* still work for a rare team with an exceptionally good O line and QB as long as you make sure the defense can’t substitute. Otherwise, the fact that there is no longer any risk of another play changes everything.