Baseball has the luxury of a ton more games to put into the model. College

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Sep 16, 2024
8:28:00am

RGGeemer Truly Addicted User

Baseball has the luxury of a ton more games to put into the model. College

football has a lot fewer, and not only that - a ton more turnover year to year.

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RGGeemer

Previous username: rggee
Bio page: RGGeemer
Joined: Aug 18, 2010
Last login: Nov 13, 2024
Total posts: 71,891 (758 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

A peek into how just about every analytics ranking system is biased by preseason ratings

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

Sep 16, 7:40am

Notre Dame at 8.....wow.

WJCougar

Sep 16, 7:42am

Should be a real challenge this weekend. Go Cougs!

inertiaman

Sep 16, 7:47am

Awesome. UW is 2-1 w a neutral field loss to Wazzu. Wazzu is 3-0 w a neutral

oxcoug

Sep 16, 7:47am

It is super lame. At least now as BYU fans instead of complaining about P4 bias,

inertiaman

Sep 16, 7:49am

Which of course, makes sense. A ranking system based entirely on 1 or 2 or even 3 games would be completely worthless.

TCuz

Sep 16, 7:52am

Yeah and no - UW beat Weber State and Eastern Mich by middling margins. Then

oxcoug

Sep 16, 7:58am

No way. It’s a statistical model, it will never be perfect. But calling out examples like that is pointless

TCuz

Sep 16, 8:05am

A "statistical model" that doesn't factor a head-to-head loss and a far more

oxcoug

Sep 16, 8:13am

You are missing the point. Of course it factors in the head to head loss, just not as much as you want it to.

TCuz

Sep 16, 8:22am

Baseball has the luxury of a ton more games to put into the model. College

RGGeemer

Sep 16, 8:28am

TCuz, you're usually good at arguments, but bringing up baseball (with its

oxcoug

Sep 16, 8:34am

It’s a great example (not perfect). Because essentially what you are doing is saying hey, the Padres beat the Dodgers

TCuz

Sep 16, 8:49am

The better example is UTEP's only win was BYU's only loss. No one, not a UTEP

NYC and Japan

Sep 16, 11:09am

Mm. That UTEP team went 1-10. Wazzu's 3-0 w bigger margins vs better competition

oxcoug

Sep 16, 12:55pm

It would be limited, but this model is *worse* than worthless, because it creates capricious bias based on something

mvtoro

Sep 16, 10:13am

Dumb

RGGeemer

Sep 16, 7:59am

The weaker the signal, the more weight you put on your prior. That isn't bias.

Coop

Sep 16, 8:48am

I'm no numbers guy like you but I have been saying this for years.

CougaRR4L

Sep 16, 9:33am

Florida State anyone? WA beaten by WA St yet #15.

ImuaKahuku

Sep 16, 10:38am

rankings would be a laughing stock if they didn't do this however

Hill4Heisman

Sep 16, 10:47am

It would be better for them to look meaningless until they have actual meaning.

mvtoro

Sep 16, 11:14am

Or ideally, they could figure out how much to weight preseason priors, using historical data to get the best predictions

krindorr

Sep 16, 11:18am

Statistically/analytically this makes sense though; historically a better predictor than just overreacting to game or 2

krindorr

Sep 16, 11:13am

What makes the most sense is to not rank teams until at least part way in.

ImuaKahuku

Sep 16, 11:57am

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